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The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility that hundreds of thousands of American citizens will have to be evacuated from the Middle East if the bloodshed in Gaza cannot be contained, according to four officials familiar with U.S. government emergency planning.
The specter of such an operation looms as Israeli forces, backed by U.S. weapons and military advisers, prepare for a likely dangerous ground offensive against Hamas militants responsible for the stunning cross-border attack that has reignited hostilities. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to provide details of internal deliberations, said Americans living in Israel and neighboring Lebanon were particularly concerned, but stressed that an evacuation of this magnitude was considered a worst-case scenario and other consequences viewed as such would become more likely.
Still, one official said, “it would be irresponsible not to have a plan for everything.”
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The government, despite its strong public support for Israel, is deeply concerned about the prospect of escalation and has turned some of its attention in recent days to the complicated logistics involved in suddenly relocating large numbers of people, according to three people with the news Discussions familiar. The State Department estimated that about 600,000 U.S. citizens were in Israel and another 86,000 were believed to be in Lebanon at the time of the Hamas attack.
The main concern in Lebanon is Hezbollah, a political party and militant group that has controlled the country since 1992. It has long accepted training and weapons from Iran, raising fears that it could attack Israel from the north and trigger a two-front war that would overwhelm Israeli forces. There have already been skirmishes along their shared border.
“This has become a real problem,” one official said said. “The government is very, very, very concerned that this is getting out of control.”
The administration’s concerns extend beyond these two countries as officials monitor street protests that have spread across the Arab world, putting both U.S. personnel and citizens in the region at increased risk. The bombing of Gaza has inflamed regional anger at Israel and its treatment of Palestinians – an issue that some officials in the Arab world say is no longer as important.
“The street is largely in charge now,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former Clinton administration official.
“For the last decade, we were told that the Arab and Muslim world no longer cared about Palestine, and the Abraham Accords were proof of that,” Riedel added, referring to agreements signed by the governments of Sudan , Morocco and Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which aim to normalize relations with Israel. “Well, Palestine has come back. I don’t think it ever went away.”
More than 5,000 people in Gaza, mostly civilians and children, have been killed by relentless Israeli airstrikes since the Oct. 7 attacks, according to Palestinian health officials.
How the Biden administration tried to slow the Israeli invasion of Gaza
Senior U.S. officials did not want to discuss such contingency planning publicly, hoping to avoid panic among Americans in the region. But their stance has shifted in recent days to reflect concern that other actors could intervene in the conflict.
Last week, the State Department advised all U.S. citizens worldwide to “exercise increased caution” because of “increasing tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, [and] Demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests.”
The warning came in response to demonstrations that erupted in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict and general anger in the Arab world over Washington’s full political, economic and military support for Israel.
Depending on the scale of a potential U.S. evacuation, it could be more difficult than any previous operation in recent memory, experts said. These could be Air Force aircraft or Navy warships that entered the region this month.
“With 600,000 Americans in Israel and threats to other Americans across the region, it is difficult to imagine an evacuation that would compare in scale, scope and complexity to this one,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.
“The type of advice that the State Department has issued recently has been pretty blunt,” she added.
On Monday, the Pentagon also signaled that it was preparing for a significant increase in attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East, and the department singled out Iran for its widespread support of militant groups that have long used missiles and drones to target them. to target American military positions. In response, Pentagon officials said they would equip the region with additional missile defense systems.
Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters that a “more comprehensive escalation” was possible “in the coming days.” Senior military leaders, he said, are taking “all necessary measures” to protect U.S. personnel.
Particularly at risk are the estimated 3,400 troops stationed in Iraq and Syria, where earlier in the day U.S. soldiers intercepted at least two unilateral attack drones near the Jordanian border, officials said. Americans operating in those countries have been targeted for years by Iran-backed militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraq-based group that claimed responsibility for some of the previous attacks revealed last week.
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“We don’t necessarily see that Iran specifically ordered them to carry out such attacks,” Ryder said. “But due to the fact that they are supported by Iran, we will ultimately hold Iran accountable.”
It is unclear how often the deployed personnel have come under fire since the Israel-Hamas crisis began on October 7. Officials said the Pentagon had compiled a list of confirmed incidents but that the effort had been hampered by what a senior defense official called the overabundance of “disinformation and misinformation.”
It is known that no US personnel were killed or seriously injured in the violence. An American contractor in Iraq actually suffered a fatal heart attack last week when troops and others at Ain al-Asad Air Base took cover to guard against a false alarm of an impending attack.
Sarah Dadouch in Beirut and Missy Ryan contributed to this report.