Creating a budget is always associated with considerable uncertainty. If governments’ ability to predict the end of the fiscal year is already uncertain, trying to estimate what Quebec’s budget balance would look like in 2027-2028 after a victorious referendum in an environment of high uncertainty is pure fortune telling.
However, the interest of the PQ document lies not so much in the accuracy of the forecasts it contains, but rather in its educational usefulness. Obviously, our aim is to reassure those who might be worried about a possible YES victory, rather than using numbers to encourage new conversions to the sovereignist project.
Reacting to the presentation of the hypothetical budget, Liberal leader Marc Tanguay was careful not to question the viability of an independent Quebec, but said of the PQ that it was exuberantly optimistic and would let him turn the corner. For the PLQ, returning to the top of sovereignty would be an excellent thing.
Fifty years after Jacques Parizeau conducted the first exercise of its kind, the question is no longer so much whether Quebec sovereignty is viable as whether it is beneficial. In this context, it is particularly notable how much the Federal Government’s financial position has changed since we last conducted it in 2005, as the PQ document clearly highlights.
At the time, the Canadian government’s impressive surplus suggested large budget surpluses once Quebec gained independence, totaling $17 billion in five years. Eighteen years later, we are instead talking about potential savings of $12 billion over seven years from eliminating unnecessary federal spending. In other words, separating from Canada would, above all, allow us to spend less and borrow less, according to PQ.
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The 82-page document, which has been the subject of intense media scrutiny since last week, was officially released on Monday morning.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Sylvain Roy Roussel
The 2026 campaign has already started
We do not yet know with certainty the identities of all party leaders who will stand in the next elections in 2026. However, we can already see the outlines of the coming election campaign, whether the PQ can actually hold its own in the polls by then.
Unless Paul St-Pierre Plamondon changes course by then, the Parti Québécois will do its best and promise a referendum in a first term, with the risks that entails. Regardless of whether the strategy is successful or not, it is likely to take up a lot of space in any case.
PQ activists will no doubt be pleased to see their leader actively talking about independence, but many Quebecers risk finding it futile to address a sovereign Quebec’s 2027-2028 budget balance as they struggle to decide on the to come round. “I leave it to the PQ to take care of the Bank of Quebec while I take care of the food banks,” concluded François Legault last Thursday.
However, anyone who is bored by these debates needs to get used to the idea: the document published yesterday is just a foretaste of what the PQ is preparing for us. Starting early next year, the party will address the demographic issue by publishing a document on raising federal immigration thresholds and Quebec’s resulting loss of political clout.
Then, in 2025, the Blue Book will be published, which aims to answer all sorts of questions about the characteristics of a sovereign Quebec, from border management to monetary policy, including what share of the budget should go to the army. The sequence ends just before the elections with the definition of Quebec citizenship.
The strategy here is clear: avoid at all costs a repeat of the scenario of the 2014 elections, when the campaign focused on the issue of sovereignty and surprised a large part of the Quebec electorate. If the PQ wants to prepare the ground better next time, this is no guarantee that the results will be more meaningful.
Ammunition against opponents
Beyond the numbers, updating studies on the finances of a sovereign Quebec also gives the PQ new ammunition. The party has not held back in recent days from publishing videos and quotes from François Legault, PQ MP, who himself presented the budget for the first year of a sovereign Quebec in 2005. While it is fair to confront a politician about his past statements, the point lies elsewhere.
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François Legault was the PQ opposition’s finance spokesman when he presented his own “first year budget” in 2005. (archive photo)
Photo: The Canadian Press / JACQUES BOISSINOT
By updating the study previously carried out by the current Prime Minister, the PQ wants above all to force a statement from him – the one who does not seem particularly comfortable in the role of Canada’s defender. François Legault has often said lately that he is excited to see what Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has to offer to make up the deficit that would result from the elimination of equalization payments in a sovereign Quebec.
The problem is that François Legault himself assures that his economic development strategy will soon allow Quebec to close the wealth gap that separates it from Ontario and the rest of Canada, which would eventually mean an end to equalization payments. Either François Legault’s strategy is not on point, or his concerns are unfounded.
The latter was questioned again last Thursday and instead insisted that Quebecers did not want a referendum. It was this observation that led the prime minister to leave the PQ in 2009 and form the CAQ in 2011. Twelve years later, this observation is undoubtedly still as true for a large portion of the population as it was then. This also makes the Parti Québécois’ bet particularly risky.