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On Monday, forecasters predicted a low-profile tropical storm would hit Mexico’s west coast. But after the most extreme storm strengthening ever seen in the Northeast Pacific, the area is now bracing for a devastating Category 5 hurricane to arrive early Wednesday. Acapulco, a city of about a million people, is directly in the crosshairs.
“A nightmare scenario is emerging for southern Mexico,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in a bulletin Tuesday evening.
Peak winds in Otis rose to 90 mph in 12 hours on Tuesday. the fastest observed intensification Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, says there has been a major problem since satellite monitoring of northeast Pacific hurricanes began in 1966. By morning, Otis was a tropical storm with peak winds of 70 mph. By evening it was a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 miles per hour.
“This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area as the core of the destructive hurricane is likely to come near or over this major city early Wednesday,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
The Hurricane Center warned that if the hurricane center hits the coast, it will cause “catastrophic damage” near its center, both from a “life-threatening” storm surge or sudden sea level rise, and from devastating winds causing tornado-like damage could cause.
In Category 5 winds, “a high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with complete roof failure and wall collapse,” writes the Hurricane Center. “Fallen trees and utility poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
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The storm’s torrential rains are forecast to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 8 to 16 inches and locally up to 20 inches through Friday. “This rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in higher elevations,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
Scientists say extreme intensification of storms like Otis, fueled by unusually warm ocean water, is becoming much more likely due to human-caused climate change. Just this week, a study described an increase in the rapid intensification of Atlantic storms over the past few decades.
“What was particularly striking was the increased likelihood that hurricanes would grow from weak storms to major hurricanes within 24 hours or less,” Andra Garner, the study’s author, told The Washington Post.
Hurricane warnings extend from Punta Maldonado northward to Zihuantanejo along the southern part of Mexico’s west coast in the state of Guerrero; Acapulco also belongs to this warning zone. The area has no experience with a hurricane as strong as Otis and has only been hit by significantly weaker storms since records began.
“There are no hurricanes even close to this intensity recorded in this part of Mexico,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
This is new territory for #Acapulco with a severe hurricane approaching. The last hurricane is approaching from the south #Otis was an unnamed Category 1 hurricane in 1951. No major hurricane has threatened this region in recorded history. Pauline ’97, the wind was blowing offshore pic.twitter.com/EK6q3QveHw
— Bill Karins 💧 (@BillKarins) October 24, 2023
Storms that intensify as quickly as Otis are the most difficult to prepare for because they leave little time for governments to warn residents and little time for emergency management to mobilize resources.
Meteorologists often refer to poorly predicted, rapidly intensifying storms like Otis as a worst-case scenario, especially when they are close to making landfall.
On X, formerly Twitter, meteorologists said they were shocked by the sudden strengthening of Otis, which computer models could not predict.
“Just a catastrophic failure of modeling with this model. “Leads to a poor worst-case forecast outcome for the Acapulco region.” posted Matt Lanzawho runs Eyewall, a hurricane commentary website.
That’s wild. Models didn’t have it #Otis a hurricane 24 hours ago, now expected to become a Category 5 hurricane near landfall tomorrow. That’s Mother Nature for you. https://t.co/UFrpio0e5Y
— Matt Devitt (@MattDevittWX) October 25, 2023
Although hurricane strength forecasts have improved significantly in recent years, predicting rapid intensification remains a major challenge – especially for compact storms like Otis, which are more vulnerable to sudden changes in their environment.
Otis drew a comparison with Patricia in 2015, which also experienced extremely rapid intensification off the west coast of Mexico, becoming the strongest hurricane ever in the northeast Pacific. However, this storm weakened somewhat before making landfall.
Otis is expected to be the fourth tropical storm or hurricane to hit the west coast of Mexico this month, following Lidia, Max and Norma.