Melting glaciers, extreme heat, but also a crisis in insurance systems and space debris: a month before COP28, a new report from the United Nations University, published on Wednesday October 25th, warns of six threats to the vital systems of the could bring people to a standstill. The concept of a climatic tipping point is now regularly used by scientists: the collapse of the Greenland ice cap and the collapse of the Amazon rainforest are examples.
This new report proposes the creation of a new category called “risk tipping points” that focuses on the interaction between nature and human-made systems. The UN cites the water and food supply system as an example.
“By damaging nature and biodiversity and polluting both Earth and space, we are heading dangerously towards multiple risk points that could destroy the systems on which our lives depend,” said Zita Sebesvari, lead author of the report.
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Risks are less mentioned in climate discussions
The analysis warns of certain threats that have already been described many times, such as the melting of glaciers, which endangers water supplies, or the disappearance of animal species that play a key role in their ecosystem. But it also highlights certain risks that are less often mentioned in the context of climate discussions.
One is the accumulation of space debris, which could lead to chain collisions that could render Earth orbit unusable for our satellites – many of which are used to warn us of weather disasters.
Another reason is the threat to the insurance system: as disasters increase, their prices rise and some insurers are even withdrawing from certain areas, leaving the population without a safety net.
Another risk is the depletion of groundwater, which is mainly used for agriculture to compensate for water shortages, for example during periods of drought. In Saudi Arabia, these wells have already dried up, the report says, and India is also nearing the tipping point.
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Analyze possible answers
The authors also propose a new approach to analyzing the possible responses to these crises by dividing them into two categories: solutions aimed at avoiding the causes of the problem and solutions aimed at adapting to inevitable changes.
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Each of these solutions can also fit into or transform the existing system. Example: As temperatures rise, installing air conditioning represents an adaptive solution within the system, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions aims to transform it and address the root cause of the problem.
According to the report, the solutions introduced today are primarily aimed at delaying tipping points rather than reinventing operating systems.
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