The Trudeau government plans to slow down its immigration strategy. The Council of Ministers is debating the need to stabilize or even reduce its annual target for new Canadian permanent residents in 2026.
Amid the real estate crisis, the delicate issue of immigration thresholds is currently the subject of delicate discussions at the Council of Ministers table.
According to several government sources, the scenario of stabilizing the 2026 immigration target received significant support during discussions on the issue in Cabinet last week. This means that the target for 2026 would remain the same as for 2025, i.e. 500,000 new permanent residents per year. If this option becomes a reality, it would mark a pause in the government’s increasing immigration targets, which have risen steadily in recent years.
Opinions on this topic are divided. At the table, ministers also discussed the possibility of lowering the target to below 500,000. The final decision has not yet been made. It must be examined by a cabinet committee and could be presented again to the Council of Ministers next Tuesday. The formal announcement must be made the next day, November 1st.
Current immigration destinations (permanent residents)
2023: 465,000
2024: 485,000
2025: 500,000
Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
In 2022, Canada welcomed more than 431,000 new permanent residents, a record.
A delicate balance
The housing crisis has shed new light on the immigration issue in the country. Economists believe Ottawa should reduce its immigration targets while housing construction keeps up with domestic demand. At the same time, however, the economy is demanding more immigration to counteract the labor shortage.
At the table of the Council of Ministers, positions differ. Some advocate a reduction, others support the status quo. According to some sources, increasing the targets would not be an option.
We need to figure out how not to tarnish the reputation of the Liberal Party [en matière d’immigration et d’accueil]and maintaining the trust of Canadians, one of the elected officials familiar with the discussions told us.
At the same time, the elected official admits that an increase is difficult to imagine given the housing shortage in the country and the ability of the provinces to integrate newcomers and provide them with all services. We will not go beyond what we have already promised.
It has to be done right. We are not blind: we need housing, we need services.
Another Liberal source says the government needs to find the balance to maintain the trust of Canadians. The population must remain open to immigration, this source said. “We were very generous,” she adds.
For this story, Radio-Canada interviewed more than half a dozen Liberal elected officials who were familiar with the discussions and preferred to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Last August, in one of his first interviews as immigration minister, Marc Miller firmly rejected the idea of lowering his government’s admission targets. “I don’t see a scenario where we would reduce them,” he said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg. The need is too great, he explained, citing labor shortages and the aging population. However, he did not reject the idea of stabilizing or increasing them at current levels.
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Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Marc Miller arrives for a caucus meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Wednesday, October 4, 2023. (file photo)
Photo: The Canadian Press / Sean Kilpatrick
French-speaking destinations
The government also wants to encourage the arrival of French-speaking immigrants to slow the decline of minority language communities outside Quebec. The new version of the Official Languages Act, passed earlier this year, envisages the introduction of a French-speaking immigration policy to ensure the survival of these communities.
According to our information, a scenario is being discussed that aims to gradually increase the target of French-speaking immigration outside Quebec. The last target, 4.4%, was achieved this year.
The Federation of Francophone and Acadian Communities (FCFA) calls for the target to be set at 12% in 2024 and reach 20% by 2036 in order to restore the demographic weight of French-speaking minority communities.
In mid-October, New Brunswick MP René Arseneault assured that his government had heard the concerns of French-speaking communities outside Quebec. “I am confident and confident that ministers have clearly understood their obligations under the new Official Languages Act,” he said.
After modernizing the law, Ottawa expressed its intention to return the demographic share of French-speaking minority communities to the 1971 level, i.e. 6.1%.