FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
LONDON – A few years ago he was included in Prospect magazine’s list of the 50 most influential thinkers in the world: Peter Frankopan teaches global history at Oxford and when Covid hit he became famous for publishing an article a month earlier in which he…predicted the outbreak of a catastrophic pandemic.
Professor, there are those who have compared the crisis in the Middle East with the situation in Europe in 1914, on the eve of the First World War: could the Hamas attack be the new Sarajevo?
“One of the themes of recent years has been the birth of a new world order: as historians we always try to understand when these tensions can have dramatic effects.” So the year 1914 represents an obvious parallel: back then, many people didn’t care what happened to you Austrian Archduke in a town in Bosnia, he set fire to a tree trunk that was just waiting for a spark to ignite. I now recognize a similar story. The chances of a peaceful solution have disappeared, and the real possibility of a two-state solution is now being replaced by many more acts of terrorism. “The Hamas attack on October 7 dramatically changed the balance in the Middle East.”
What could the consequences be for Israel?
“Much will depend on what happens now and how far the Israeli army will go: I predict that Israel’s military efforts will be more difficult than expected, but Hamas and its affiliates and successors will also have little chance of achieving their goals “We are facing a long phase of uncertainty and suffering. In the long term, we will see growing support for extremist parties in Israel who will make dramatic promises of revenge.”
What kind of realignment is taking place in the Arab world?
“Some, like Qatar, see the opportunity to play a mediator role, but I’m not sure we will see a realignment: at the moment they are waiting to see what happens and then react.” The most unpredictable actor is not the Arab world, but Iran: The decisions that will be made in Tehran in the coming days and weeks will be decisive.”
Did the conflict show Europe’s stupidity on the global stage?
“There is no point in playing a role on the global stage without having a plan and a solution. It is not clear to me whether these exist in the corridors of power in Europe or elsewhere.”
Can Russia use the crisis to its advantage?
“The focus on the Middle East distracts from Ukraine. But perhaps more importantly, the shock of the attacks is causing many to turn their backs on the outside world and lose interest in complicated and frightening scenarios.”
Is there a danger that the global South will accuse the West of double standards, one in Ukraine and one in Gaza?
“Certainly it is done in a clear and comprehensive way. Direct comparisons are being made between Israel’s use of force and that of Russia, and many are wondering why the West supports the Ukrainians but not the Palestinians. This in turn leads to accusations of racism, Islamophobia and imperialism. This is all part of the birth pangs of a new world order, part of a long and difficult journey toward something that will look very different from what we have lived with since World War II. I’m afraid these apocalyptic scenes in Israel and now in Gaza are part of it. A multipolar world is uncertain and, I fear, unhappy for many.”