Ok I give up. I wave the white flag. There is no winning this fight.
The NFL wins.
I just can’t manage to choose games every week. This season is crazy. Is anyone okay?
Last week I went 5-8 against the spread in our CBSSports.com Expert Picks, which was the second-best of the week in our group. Gross. Ryan Wilson did the unthinkable. He actually went 0-13 ATS.
It wasn’t that my straight picks were much better. I went straight up with 6-7. My season records are now 62-44 straight up and 50-53-3 ATS. So much for the idea of a big Week 7.
But like every defeated warrior, starting this week it’s time to get back up and win the fight. Maybe it’s time to use the old dartboard method. Or maybe put the teams in a hat. Something, anything to get it going.
I will not give up. I can’t give up.
But right now I’m a beaten man when it comes to picking NFL games.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Neither team has looked great in the last two games, but the Bills won one of them. The Bucs’ offense has struggled over the past two weeks, while the Bills have struggled on defense due to numerous injuries. Still, I think the Bills will get back on track in front of their home crowd. Josh Allen has a big game.
Choose: Bills 28, Bucs 14 (Result: Bills 24, Bucs 18)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a game with the first two picks in the draft, Bryce Young to the Panthers and CJ Stroud to the Texans. Young struggled while Stroud played well. Both teams have a bye, but the Texans are the better team. You take it with you on the road.
Choose: Texans 23, Panthers 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Cowboys are coming off a bye, while the Rams narrowly lost to the Steelers on Sunday. It’s a tough away game for the Rams against a rested team. Dallas seemed to have everything sorted out in their last game against the Chargers, and that will continue here. The Cowboys win.
Choose: Cowboys 27, Rams 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Vikings have won two straight and impressed with a win over the 49ers on Monday night. But this is an away division game on a short week, which is always a challenge. The Packers haven’t played well at all in recent weeks, but this is the game that turns things around. The Packers slow down Kirk Cousins and take it.
Choose: Packers 24, Vikings 21
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, I highly recommend taking a look at the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been in full swing this year. Give it a try if you want to know which side you should bet on.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Saints were coming off a loss on Thursday against the Jaguars, where the offense struggled. The Colts scored more than expected against the Browns, but made too many mistakes. That will be the difference here. The Saints defense will get the best out of Gardner Minshew.
Choose: Saints 23, Colts 18
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are coming off an impressive home win over the Bills, where Mac Jones showed some life. The Dolphins lost to the Eagles on Sunday night in a game in which the offense scored just one touchdown. New England slowed down Miami in the first meeting. The same strategy will keep them in this game. It’s closer than you think.
Choose: Dolphins 26, Patriots 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Giants played well defensively and beat the Commanders, while the Jets have a bye. They seemed to sort things out before parting. This should be a low scoring defensive game, with the offense making the big mistake likely costing their team the game. I say it’s the Giants. The Jets front will force it.
Choose: Jets 21, Giants 16
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars have won four straight and will be getting some rest after last Thursday’s game. Pittsburgh has played better on offense in recent games, and that had to be the case. Both defenses played well, but I’ll bet on the better offense. Jacksonville takes it as Trevor Lawrence outscores Kenny Pickett.
Choose: Jaguars 24, Steelers 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans are currently a mess while the Falcons are in first place after their road win against Tampa Bay last week. The Titans could be inclined to give rookie Will Levis his first start of his career here. That’s a tall order against a solid defense, but Levis will be a good player. It starts here. Angry Special.
Choose: Titans 21, Falcons 20
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Commanders are having a lot of trouble protecting quarterback Sam Howell. That’s never a good thing against the Eagles front. The Eagles’ offense got on track Sunday night against Miami, which will be a challenge for the struggling Washington defense. Still, I think the Commanders will keep the number within reason, but the Eagles will win.
Choose: Eagles 27, Commanders 24
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Browns are playing on the road for the second week in a row, but after not doing well on defense last week, I think that’s changing here. Even if it’s PJ Walker at quarterback, I think the defense will find a way to contain Seattle’s offense and pull off an upset.
Choose: Browns 23, Seahawks 16
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ravens are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. Lamar Jackson and the passing game are finally getting it rolling while the defense leads the NFL in points allowed. That’s a big challenge for an undermanned Arizona team that has been pretty normal the last few weeks. The Ravens win big.
Choose: Ravens 30, Cardinals 13
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The two met in Kansas City a few weeks ago and the Chiefs won that game, but it wasn’t easy. Denver’s defense played well. This unit has made progress. Still, the Chiefs offense really picked up steam last week. They will be here too. The Chiefs are coming off another big game from Patrick Mahomes.
Choose: Chiefs 30, Broncos 17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The 49ers have lost two games in a row and the defense has struggled against Kirk Cousins. Now they get a good Bengals offense that gets a bye, which is good for Joe Burrow and his calf. I think Burrow and the Bengals offense will be able to keep this game close.
Choose: 49ers 27, Bengals 24
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Bears looked much better against the Raiders last week, and Tyson Bagent had a solid game. But this is a tough game against a good team that desperately needs this game. The Chargers have too much talent to continue losing games. It ends here. Chargers big.
Choose: Chargers 33, Bears 19
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The Raiders are playing back-to-back road games after losing horribly to the Bears last week. The Lions were blown away by the Ravens on the road last week. Detroit is recovering significantly here.
Choose: Lions 31, Raiders 17