When the Princess of Asturias swears in the Constitution in Congress this Tuesday, coinciding with her coming of age, she will be one step away from becoming Queen. As soon as her father dies due to abdication, incapacity or death, she automatically becomes head of state, without the interregnum of a regency. It may take months or years before the firstborn of kings takes this step. Or maybe it never exists. But it already represents the future of the monarchy, the youthful and feminine face of a secular institution that is reinventing itself to assert itself in the 21st century. If she takes the crown, she would be the first queen of Spain in more than 120 years and also the first time in more than two centuries that three generations of Bourbons have peacefully succeeded each other on the throne.
EL PAÍS interviewed seven of the most renowned experts in contemporary Spanish history about the meaning of this oath, the strengths and weaknesses of the monarchy, the risks it faces and whether they believe that Leonor de Borbón Ortiz will one day become Leonor I . will be Spain. These are his thoughts.
For Carmen Iglesias, director of the Royal Academy of History, Tuesday’s event is a “historic act that symbolizes dynastic continuity and constitutional loyalty.” An event that “connects the past with the future and represents continuity and renewal,” says Jordi Canal, professor at the School of Social Sciences in Paris.
For this reason, the absence of Juan Carlos I from the ceremonial session of the Cortes Generales – an absence that Carmen Iglesias considers “very regrettable” – is paradoxical: neither Felipe VI. nor the Princess of Asturias would have been there if it had not been for the King Emeritus, but he is not invited, unlike the Count of Barcelona, grandfather of the current monarch, who was present at the swearing-in of the then Prince of Asturias on A place of honor was reserved for January 30, 1986. “The succession of Juan Carlos I was traumatic,” explains Julián Casanova, professor of contemporary history at the University of Zaragoza. And this trauma, which has not yet been overcome, has led the royal family to “distance” from the immediate past, according to José Álvarez Junco, professor emeritus at the Complutense University of Madrid.
Spain was not monarchical, say the historians interviewed, but it became Juan Carlos after the then head of state ordered the tanks to return to their barracks on the night of the coup of February 23, 1981. “Franco bequeathed all powers to him. He could have been an absolute king and decided to be a constitutional monarch. You have to thank him for that. Then his personal behavior tarnished his public image,” says Álvarez Junco. “Juancarlism has been delegitimized. He himself contributed to his disappearance,” complains Ángeles Egido, professor of contemporary history at UNED. “There was a sacralization of the figure of Juan Carlos I and that image was destroyed,” concludes Casanova.
The king emeritus’ sexual and economic scandals undermined the reputation of the monarchy, which reached its lowest point in the middle of the last decade. However, experts agree that the institution has largely overcome this setback and Felipe VI. His behavior “gained the trust of the Spanish people,” as Ángeles Egido put it.
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It is difficult to say to what extent it has regained popularity since the CIS, Spain’s main demographic institute, has not asked questions about the monarchy or the royal family since 2015. Of course, “there is no Felipismo [por Felipe VI] in the style of Juancarlism, but is appreciated by Spanish society,” says Álvarez Junco. “The challenge of Felipe VI. is to relegitimize the institution as such, not to create an emotional connection between the Spaniards and his person, as his father did, but to ensure that they become monarchists,” says Javier Moreno Luzón, professor of intellectual and intellectual history of social and political movements at the Complutense University of Madrid. “The Spanish monarchy does not enjoy the popularity of the British one, it is not a hallmark of the country, it is there and plays its role, but the moment it makes one or two serious mistakes it can falter. “You can’t allow that,” warns Álvarez Junco.
Know how to adapt
The monarchies that did not know how to adapt to the parliamentary regime fell in the 20th century (Portugal, Germany, Italy, Greece, etc.). The Spaniard also fell, but, and this is an exceptional case, she returned and had “a second chance,” as Egido put it.
“The monarchy has not been restored. It was founded by the Franco regime,” explains the historian. Franco named Juan Carlos as his heir, ignoring the rightful king, the Count of Barcelona. Only when Juan de Borbón renounced his dynastic rights after the dictator’s death did monarchical legitimacy and de facto power come together in his son.
Given such grim precedents, the monarchy’s legitimacy rests less on its origins than on its practice. It is accepted to the extent that it is useful to society; which means being profitable in the cost-benefit ratio. “The dilemma [Monarquía o República] It is no longer presented in essentialist terms, but in utilitarian terms,” said Álvarez Junco.
The monarchy is not a democratic institution and does not submit to the judgment of voters. But that doesn’t mean it’s immune to citizens’ judgment. On the other hand. “All [los servidores públicos] They have to earn their position through their behavior, and even more so the monarch,” warns Egido. “Philip VI. has learned the lesson that the monarchy must be watered every day because public opinion can turn against it,” adds Canal.
It is not known whether the path that Leonor de Borbón will take from her oath to the throne will be long or short, or whether she will even complete it, but it will be full of pitfalls. When asked if the Princess of Asturias will become queen, Casanova warns: “I’m not a fortune teller, but the transition will not be easy. If the institution takes a wrong step, problems could arise.”
The greatest risks for the institution would be two: to again display immoral behavior like that of Juan Carlos I, especially in economic terms, and that of Felipe VI. to deviate from the promised line of austerity and exemplaryness; and engage in partisan warfare. Javier Moreno, biographer of Alfonso
Although they may seem like dilemmas from the last century, the investiture process has brought strong pressure on Felipe VI from a section of the right. shown to allow the two-month deadline after Feijóo’s failure to pass without naming Pedro Sánchez as a candidate, thus forcing a repeat election. “There are many people who are calling for the King to intervene beyond his constitutional powers. And they do the institution a disservice when they call themselves monarchists and throw stones at their own roof,” says Moreno. “If the monarchy wants to be a symbol of unity, it needs to stay away from the political hornet’s nest,” he added.
Not only the King Emeritus will be missing from the Princess’ oath, but also the presidents of Catalonia and the Basque Country, as well as the parliamentarians of the Catalan, Basque and Galician nationalist groups, as well as the majority of those from Sumar. At the swearing in of Felipe VI. Almost 38 years ago, Lehendakari José Antonio Ardanza and President Jordi Pujol, who had an almost complicit relationship with Juan Carlos I, took part.
Although these rudenesses are now commonplace, Carmen Iglesias considers them to be a “profound rudeness” and an “insult to all Spaniards,” which illustrates the separation of part of Catalan and Basque society from the crown. A problem that, according to Moreno, “cannot be solved overnight”; And it is exacerbated because “antagonism” with the monarch has become the poster child of the pro-independence parties after the royal speech of October 3, 2017, which opened the door to the application of Article 155 of the Constitution, adds Canal.
Having lost the support of nationalists on the fringes of the region, the PSOE’s support for the institution is “indispensable”. Without the socialists, the monarchy would remain paralyzed, supported only by the forces of the right – PP, Vox and UPN – and would not be viable in the medium term. “For the institution to have a future, it cannot identify with either the right or the left,” explains this last historian.
If the Socialist Party were to opt for the Republic, the situation would be similar to that in Catalonia with the Convergència’s transition from autonomism to independence, which increased its share of voters to almost 50% of the electorate.
Mercedes Cabrera, who was education minister under José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, cannot imagine that the PSOE could take such a turn, but warns of the danger that the parties will make the crown a subject of political dispute and that “someone will insist on it.” by appropriating it, just as they did with the symbols of Spain, such as the flag or the anthem.
The majority of Socialists, including some who will play an important role in Tuesday’s events, identify as Republicans but, like Cabrera, believe that this is not a priority issue and does not currently worry Spaniards. If the melon of the monarchy-republic dilemma opens amid strong political polarization, it would enter a spiral “with a very difficult solution,” warns Moreno.
Beyond the scandals of the king emeritus, the monarchy’s service to Spain shows that it has enabled democracy, stability and economic prosperity for almost half a century, this historian claims. It remains to be seen how long this merit will be worth Leonor de Borbón, who is still a blank slate.
The fact that she is a woman is, according to Egido, “precautionary” for the institution and, in the words of Iglesias, a “very positive, although unwanted” factor, as it is in line with a time when women are more accepting and more responsibility and “strengthens their presence in positions of power,” Cabrera adds. His youth, Moreno emphasizes, could help the crown connect with a part of the population in which it has previously aroused “fairly little sympathy.”
Although most historians believe that Eleanor of Borbón will one day become queen, barring any accidents, they are very cautious when it comes to the question of whether this will mark the final consolidation of the monarchy. “I would never use the definitive term of history,” concludes Álvarez Junco.
Tuesday the 31st, agenda for a real day
11:00 a.m The Princess of Asturias, Leonor de Borbón, swears by the constitution before the Cortes Generales. He will be sworn in by the President of the Congress, Francina Armengol, who will give a speech attended by Kings Felipe VI, Letizia and Infanta Sofía.
1:30 p.m The incumbent Prime Minister presents the Charles III necklace to the Princess of Asturias in the Royal Palace. Speech by President Pedro Sánchez and the Princess of Asturias. Kings Felipe and Letizia and Infanta Sofía take part.
2 p.m Lunch with the heads of the highest institutions of the state in the Royal Palace. King’s speech. Queen Letizia, the Princess of Asturias and Infanta Sofía take part.
Late at night. Private dinner at El Pardo to celebrate Leonor de Borbón’s 18th birthday. Invited are the kings, their sister Sofía, the kings emeritus Juan Carlos I and Sofía; the sisters of Felipe VI, Elena and Cristina, and their children; as well as the family of Queen Letizia.
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