Israel responded to the devastating Hamas attack on October 7 with the largest mobilization in the country’s history. But when his tanks and troops finally entered Gaza this weekend, it was not the full-scale invasion that some had expected.
Current and former officials said the seemingly limited scope of Israel’s initial invasion – which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called the “second phase” of Israel’s war with Hamas – reflected a complex mix of factors. But above all, Israel wants to maximize its firepower advantage over Hamas and minimize its own losses, while trying not to drag other opponents into the war, they added.
At the tactical level, the smaller area than expected meant ground troops could be more easily provided with air support – crucial cover for the advance into parts of the northern Gaza Strip, where Hamas has been preparing defensive measures for years, according to a person familiar with Israel’s battle plans.
“We are not taking any risks,” said Amir Avivi, former deputy commander of the Israeli military’s Gaza division. “When our soldiers maneuver, we do so with massive artillery, with 50 aircraft overhead destroying everything that moves.”
Officials expect the fighting in Gaza to be intense: Hamas has been preparing for urban fighting, building a vast network of tunnels nicknamed the “Gaza Metro” that helps move fighters and weapons undetected. The militant group also has an arsenal of anti-tank weapons and improvised explosive devices.
In a foretaste of the fighting to come, the Israeli military on Sunday battled Hamas militants who emerged from a tunnel near the Erez border crossing.
“The only thing worse than fighting in urban terrain is fighting in the rubble of urban terrain. There are so many places where they can hide and carry out ambushes,” said Eyal Hulata, who was chairman of Israel’s National Security Council until earlier this year.
“When the Israeli military stands still, it is more vulnerable. That’s why you see them in slow but steady movement, [being] They are very careful about securing the places they are already in.”
The Israeli armed forces are keeping a low profile about the exact deployment of one of their most important missions in decades. But officials say the more gradual troop buildup is aimed at reducing the likelihood that Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed Lebanese militant group that fought a months-long war with Israel in 2006, will join the conflict.
Deploying fewer troops to Gaza would also mean manpower could be more easily deployed to the north if Hezbollah – whose militants have been engaged in escalating cross-border fighting with Israeli forces – actually enters the war, according to people familiar with Israel’s battle plans Person.
“I think the message is aimed at the Israelis [on the land offensive] “This is very deliberate,” said a Western diplomat. “They were concerned that Hezbollah and Iran would see the land invasion as a trigger for some kind of escalation, so they didn’t call it a land invasion.”
The limited initial incursion also reflects that Netanyahu’s promise to destroy Hamas and drive it out of Gaza is too big to be completed quickly, said Yaakov Amidror, a distinguished scholar at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and former national security advisor.
“The goal is not a tactical objective that we will achieve tomorrow,” he said, adding that he expected the operation to last between six months and a year. “What you are seeing is caution at the tactical level – why would we lose more soldiers than necessary? – and the understanding that the goal is so big that it can’t be achieved in the next week anyway.”
Other observers believe the scale of the initial attack is a sign that Israel is seeking something less ambitious than toppling Hamas.
“It appears that their goals are not to completely expel Hamas from Gaza. Rather, it appears they want to both dismantle the military infrastructure and kill the leadership,” the Western diplomat said. “But the honest answer is that they still haven’t really laid out the end goal, perhaps because they haven’t really worked it out yet.”
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Israeli officials insist they will not be swayed by international pressure to rein in their forces until they have decisively defeated Hamas, whose militants killed more than 1,400 people on October 7, according to the government. The ministers also argue that the initial ground strikes would increase pressure on Hamas to release the more than 230 hostages captured that day.
“There is no ‘diplomatic hourglass’ in this war, but a working clock and a human commitment to the return of the abductees,” Israeli War Cabinet member Benny Gantz said on Saturday. “We will listen to our friends, but we will do what is right for us.”
Others are less sure. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who oversaw major ground operations in Gaza and Lebanon, said Israel likely had less time than the war cabinet believes to achieve its goals, given the images of widespread destruction emanating from Gaza.
Israeli strikes have killed more than 8,000 people and injured more than 20,000, according to Palestinian officials. The United Nations has warned that Israel’s decision to severely restrict supplies of electricity, fuel, water and goods to the Gaza Strip has brought the country to the brink of humanitarian collapse.
“The time is shorter than [the war cabinet] “Think about it,” Olmert said. “Until now, [the US] gave us “gifts”. In the future, they may give us orders.”
Israeli troops gather near the Gaza border © AFP via Getty ImagesIsrael’s first incursions into Gaza occurred near Beit Hanoun in the north of the Gaza Strip and Bureij in the center of the Gaza Strip. Analysts say this approach suggests Israel could seek to gradually encircle Gaza City, which Israeli officials claim is the base for much of Hamas’s military infrastructure.
Amos Harel, a military correspondent and author of a book on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said Israeli forces had advanced 3 to 4 kilometers into the Gaza Strip but were not yet engaged in urban fighting. “The logic seems to be to apply pressure and force Hamas fighters to leave [of their tunnels] and then hit her,” he said.
The person familiar with Israel’s battle plans said that the resistance Israel had encountered had not been “great” as of Sunday morning and it was unclear why Hamas had not fired more anti-tank missiles at the IDF’s armored vehicles, when they invaded Gaza.
But others cautioned against reading too much into Hamas’s response at this early stage, especially since Israeli intelligence spectacularly misjudged the group’s capabilities and intentions earlier this month.
“Everything that has happened since Oct. 7 has been a big surprise,” Hulata said. “So I would be very careful in assessing what Hamas can and cannot do.”