The dilemma was clear: elections to elect departmental, municipal and district authorities could strengthen or weaken a wave of political transformation that has been increasing in Colombia in recent years. And the result is also clear: the wave has stopped. The most important mayoral and governorships remained in the hands of politicians with different perspectives, but those who headed traditional political structures received majority support from them. It is a return to the status quo.
In 2019, alternative candidates won in several large cities such as Bogotá, Medellín, Cartagena and Cúcuta, as well as in smaller cities such as Buenaventura, Manizales and Palmira. In 2022, the traditional parties – Liberal, Conservative, Democratic Center, Cambio Radical, La U – did not even have candidates for the presidency. These results contrast with those of this Sunday.
On Cambio Radical’s Alex Char’s telegraphed victories in Barranquilla; and Dilian Francisca Toro from La U in the Valle del Cauca, there are many more advances by traditional politicians. In other cases, the new leaders come less from the heart of traditional politics, but their victories represent the progress of these sectors. In Medellín, for example, the winner of the 2019 and 2022 presidential elections, Federico Gutiérrez, had the support of much of the traditional political class, and in Unlike his predecessor Daniel Quintero, he did not run his election campaign under the banner of anti-politics (rather, out of increased anti-Quinterism). Also in Bogotá, Carlos Fernando Galán, who was active in Cambio Radical until five years ago, accepted various supports from traditional structures for these votes, something he had not done when he narrowly lost the mayor’s office in 2019.
The change of trend affects the government, since Gustavo Petro was elected thanks to the impetus of this trend and, moreover, suffered a defeat in Bogotá, the country’s main electoral center and the city of which he was mayor. “In the mayor’s office of Bogotá we risk the survival of the Historical Pact,” its candidate Gustavo Bolívar told this newspaper at the start of the election campaign. Third place, surpassed by independent Juan Daniel Ovierdo, is a clear defeat for the left.
In general, the Historical Pact, the governing coalition and the parties that make it up (Colombia Humana, Polo Democrático, MAIS, Unión Patriótica, ADA, AICO, Comunes, Partido Comunista, Soy Porque Somos and Partido de los Trabajadores) have had poor results achieves results. An exception is Luis Alfonso Escobar’s victory in Nariño, which, however, also reflects the turnaround: the left lost the governorship in 2019 after holding it for twelve years and is now regaining it.
The turnaround echoes the logic of local elections, in which voters punish or reward outgoing leaders. Those elected in 2019 faced the problems arising from the pandemic, from the rise in unemployment to deaths in families to the increase in hunger and poverty, and the reality took a heavy toll on them. Exceptions like Barranquilla reflect a special and very strong local dynamic.
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The question remains what impact this will have on national politics. The government is weakened by the defeat in Bogotá but faces a new chapter in defining its relationships with local powers. Congressmen allied with the winners can turn to Petro to carry out joint projects or distance themselves from a government with low approval and poor election results in which it was introduced. The next few weeks will show.
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