WASHINGTON (AP) — In a two-week war in Ukraine, Russia achieved less and fought harder than expected at the start of Europe’s biggest land conflict since World War II. But an invasion force of more than 150,000 maintains a large and possibly decisive firepower advantage as it swarms into key cities.
Moscow’s main goal of overthrowing the Kiev government and replacing it with a Kremlin-friendly leadership remains elusive, and the overall offensive has been slowed down by a number of shortcomings, including a lack of coordination between air and ground forces and an inability to completely dominate Ukraine. sky.
The Pentagon on Tuesday estimated that Russia retains about 95% of the combat power deployed in Ukraine, taking into account destroyed or disabled weapons and vehicles, as well as killed and wounded military personnel. These losses, at first glance modest, are significant for two weeks of fighting.
Two weeks of war have created a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, which has worsened in recent days. The UN estimates that 2 million Ukrainians have left their country and the number is expected to rise.
Between 2,000 and 4,000 troops have likely been killed in Russia to date, said Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, adding that his agency “doesn’t trust” its estimates.
With no sign of Russian President Vladimir Putin backing down, the war looks set to drag on. CIA director William Burns told Congress on Tuesday that Putin is disappointed and will likely “double down the stakes” in Ukraine. He said it could mean “a terrible next few weeks” as the fighting intensifies.
The question of whether the conflict could expand, and if so, how, is a major concern for the West, not least because Putin has said he will not tolerate unrestricted US or NATO arms sales to Ukraine. NATO, in turn, warns against spreading the Russian conflict across the border of Ukraine to NATO countries such as Poland or Romania. Poland on Tuesday offered to place the MiG-29 fighter jets under US control at an airbase in Germany, allegedly leaving it up to Washington to decide whether and how the planes could be delivered to Ukraine. The Pentagon quickly dismissed the idea, calling it untenable in light of Ukraine’s contested airspace.
Some fear that a frustrated Putin could lead to a dangerous escalation in the conflict. Within days of the outbreak of the war, he invoked the prospect of nuclear war, announcing that he had put his nuclear forces on high alert, even though US officials found no threatening change in Russian nuclear policy.
“Given the escalation of the conflict, Putin probably remains confident that Russia can defeat Ukraine militarily and does not want Western support to upset the balance and provoke a conflict with NATO,” Avril Haynes, director of national intelligence, told Congress. . on Tuesday.
While getting a detailed picture of the unfolding war is difficult, US and European officials and analysts say the Russians started off slowly and have since been held back by inadequate planning, misguided tactics, and possibly declining morale among troops unprepared for combat. .
On the day the war began, the Pentagon estimates that only about one-third of Russia’s pre-trained combat forces entered Ukraine, with the other two-thirds introduced gradually until nearly all arrived this week. The Russian troops made gradual progress, but their pace was remarkably slow.
“They have morale issues,” said John Kirby, the top Pentagon spokesman. “They have supply issues. They have fuel problems. They have food problems. They meet very tough and resolute Ukrainian resistance. And we still maintain that they are days behind what they probably expected in terms of their progress.”
Kirby said the Pentagon believes the slow pace of the Russian ground forces’ advance has prompted them to make greater use of missiles, artillery and other long-range weapons, including in urban areas. According to him, this led to an increase in the number of civilian casualties.
“We think that, again, because they haven’t been able to catch up, they continue to suffer on the ground in terms of ground advancement,” Kirby said.
With over 150,000 troops stationed on Ukraine’s borders, the Russians launched their invasion on 24 February, pushing south towards Kyiv from points in southern Belarus and Russia; towards Kharkiv, the largest city in eastern Ukraine, and north of the Crimean peninsula, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
Ukrainians put up a stiffer resistance than Putin likely expected, even as Russian rocket and rocket attacks on cities resulted in civilian casualties, damage and destruction of civilian infrastructure, and accelerated the exodus of refugees seeking asylum in and beyond Poland. outside.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday that Russia may have underestimated the extent to which Ukraine’s armed forces have improved since 2014 as a result of US and NATO training.
“And that’s the reason they can fight back” as effectively as before, Stoltenberg said.
Philip Breedlove, a retired Air Force general who was NATO’s commander-in-chief in Europe from 2013 to 2016, said that while Russian forces are well behind schedule, he believes they are capable of taking Kyiv eventually.
“Unless there is a big change at the operational level, they will have enough of what I call slow, steady momentum, and if they can sustain the losses that this will inflict on them, they will eventually reach that goal,” he said. This raises questions about Russian occupation and the possibility of an insurgency.
Breedlove said the Russian offensive in southern Ukraine has been less stalled than in the north and is designed to establish a “land bridge” between the southeastern region of Donbass with the Crimean peninsula and the west with the port city of Odessa on the Black Sea, leaving Ukraine with no access to sea country.
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Associated Press contributors Lorne Cook in Brussels and Nomaan Merchant in Washington contributed to this report.