Venezuelans know all moods. In two decades of Chavismo, they went through illusions, disbelief, fear, anger, struggle and disappointment until they settled in the worst of all: hopelessness. The statement that the majority of Venezuelans are more concerned with surviving everyday crisis than with striving for political change has become widespread in recent years. This has been repeated by analysts, political scientists, opposition leaders and the media, including this one. For this reason, no one saw success in participating in the opposition primaries last Sunday. Manually organized elections that even their supporters had doubts about, but to which two million Venezuelans inside and outside the country responded. It turned out that the citizens were not drugged and the biggest surprise came from Chavismo itself, which then opened a judicial investigation against the organizers of the process.
In Venezuela nothing can happen for months and anything can happen in a week. At this moment we are right. In summary, in recent days negotiations have resumed between Chavismo and the opposition, it has been agreed to hold presidential elections in 2024 under international observation, the United States has announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil and Chavismo released five captured politicians and the opposition held self-governing primaries with unexpected success. For a country that has been living in Groundhog Day for years, each of these events would be news on their own, but taken together they represent an information bomb. But when speaking of Venezuela, caution is advised. Are there reasons to consider a transition?
Chavismo agreed with the opposition at the negotiating table in Barbados to hold the primaries, but did not allow María Corina Machado, the politician who famously won this consultation with an overwhelming majority. According to sources interviewed, Nicolás Maduro described his situation as a red line. The Venezuelan president definitely does not want to face her in presidential elections with guarantees in which he would have everything to lose. The strategy of the opposition, which has united around Machado since Sunday, is to demand the restoration of the political rights of all citizens, but the reality is that the majority recognizes that it is very difficult for Maduro to allow the winner To as to enable candidate.
Faced with this situation, another outrage from the regime that controls the judiciary, which imposes disqualifications for the most absurd reasons, Machado could decide to resign to choose another unity candidate, or to claim his right to run at any cost. “The latter would open a conflict scenario that would radicalize the government,” predicts Luis Vicente León, director of the Datanalisis company. In the other scenario, the current weakness of the ruling party and the renewed strength of the opposition give rise to versions that assure that any candidate supported by the entire united opposition could defeat Chavismo.
León believes that there is no possibility that Maduro risks losing power in truly democratic elections (“zero probability”). If that happens, there is a possibility that the United States will reimpose sanctions – the lifting of which depends on Chavismo taking steps to open up – and the president of Venezuela will maintain his authoritarian position. “We would enter a higher level of autocracy. “Maduro would Nicaraguanize the country,” he continues. Other analysts, such as Geoff Ramsey, Venezuela and Colombia director at the Atlantic Council, hope such a situation does not arise. Washington is interested in trade with Caracas, Chavismo is interested in moving money around the country, and the opposition is interested in holding elections. At the center of this triangle, Venezuela’s future is at stake. “I don’t see any interest in Washington in returning to the status quo,” Ramsey said.
The opposition will have to decide in the coming weeks what to do if Chavismo refuses to rehabilitate Machado. The majority of democratic forces are in favor of finding a replacement and applying the already well-known Barinas strategy. In this region of the country, the opposition won the 2021 elections against Chavismo, but the ruling party did not accept the results and Venezuela’s Supreme Court ordered them to be repeated. The winner was disqualified, as were the two successive opposition candidates, a ploy by Chavismo to avoid allowing Hugo Chávez’s birthplace to be taken away from him. The fourth candidate was deemed suitable and won the elections again. Today he rules the region. According to this logic, the opposition would have to name a new candidate and field as many as necessary, given possible disqualifications, until one of them receives approval to run against Maduro with the support of everyone.
This scenario is uncertain. For the opposition, where there are very different sensibilities, it does not seem so easy to maintain unity in the face of the immense challenge that lies ahead. Other political forces that did not participate in the primaries could also emerge and split the unified vote, which would favor Maduro. Those who act independently are known as Scorpions, an ad hoc opposition to the government that actually poses no threat to the ruling party. “Right now, any candidate could beat Maduro if the entire opposition is united. If it is shared it will have little chance,” says Geoff Ramsey.
A candidate from the hardest wing
María Corina Machado fell like a meteorite in the middle of the negotiations. Neither the United States nor Venezuela’s Unity Platform – the coalition of opposition parties negotiating in Barbados – nor Chavismo had expected her overwhelming performance a few months ago, which led to her winning the primaries with more than 90%. “None of the three actors are particularly fans of her,” reveals a source familiar with the matter. Negotiators on both sides are proceeding from some basic agreements agreed in Mexico in 2021, before Chavismo froze negotiations, which are now in question with Machado.
It never agreed to enter into negotiations with the government, seeing it as a way to legitimize the regime, although it has softened its positions in recent months. The politician also did not support the opposition in the election for years and now plans to do so. Therefore, the decision I make in the coming weeks is unknown.
Despite the thousand facets of a conflict that risks escalating, everything suggests that something is moving in Venezuela. “It is a moment of hope,” summarizes Paola Alemán, national vice president of the Primero Justicia programs and doctor of political science. He believes that “dictatorships are wrong”, that Maduro believed that “fear and terror” were enough to stop the people, but he did not know the resilience of the opposition, which, after many years of tensions and mistakes, mobilizes two million people could on Sunday. Alemán recognizes that Machado is now the “undisputed leader” and that this vote “must result in an electoral machinery capable of overcoming the obstacles that arise.” First, to win its approval and, on the horizon, to ensure that the opposition remains united and “defeats Maduro” until 2024.
If that were to happen, would Chavismo give up power of its own free will? “It’s very unlikely,” Ramsey adds, “but that doesn’t mean the international community should stop providing incentives for key Chavismo actors to support a transition.” “There are people who are interested in a political future and would support a negotiated transition.” As an example, León cites the replacement of the dictatorship by the parliamentary monarchy in Spain, where an amnesty law was passed. He also finds it difficult to believe that Maduro, who is receiving a $15 million reward in the United States, would simply give up power. There are more and more voices demanding that, just as Chile peacefully overcame the Pinochet dictatorship, Venezuela moves toward the same thing. This is defended, for example, by opposition leader Henrique Capriles, an archenemy in Machado’s opposition bloc.
Due to Chavismo’s recent movements, a certain nervousness can be felt within its ranks. One of the most immediate problems that may arise for the opposition is the legalization of the primaries. Tarek William Saab, the country’s attorney general, has announced a criminal investigation against the organizers and requested this Friday that three of them – Jesús María Casal, Mildred Camero and Roberto Abdul-Hadi Casanova – testify as those under investigation. Saab recalled in a message on social networks that the constitution states that the organization of such events must be carried out by the National Electoral Center (CNE). And while that is true, the opposition has been waiting months for the CNE to respond to its request for support, and when the response came, it was so late that it was forced to handle the matter on its own. The question now remains whether the accusations of the Chavista institutions will extend to the rest of the participants in the primaries, which would constitute a violation of the agreement signed by Barbados, which called on Barbados to respect them.
“It’s a turning point because the government didn’t expect this, they signed the agreement and didn’t expect people to vote because they thought people were tired of politics. And it turned out that Venezuelans voted en masse,” explains Margarita López Maya, Venezuelan historian. Luis Vicente León agrees and assumes that Maduro must regret allowing this to happen at this point. López Maya now sees an opportunity and believes that the moment is favorable for the opposition: “Chavismo is in a position where it has no choice but to negotiate. When the agreement was announced [de Barbados] I thought it was a strike by the United States against Jorge Rodríguez (head of the government’s negotiating team). “They signed without foreseeing what would happen and now they can get to work.” López Maya is also sure that Chavismo knows that it cannot win in fair elections.
Venezuela has been stuck in negotiations for five years that take one step forward and then two steps back. Most pessimists believe that this rapprochement between the parties is doomed to failure. The optimists believe that the country is in a moment of change, who knows if it will be final. There are still many battles ahead of us, but the opponent has scored the first goal after years of unpredictable strategies. The best proof of this is the nervousness of Chavismo.
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