Sao Paulo
Ukraine’s counteroffensive against the Russian occupying forces on its territory failed in its main objective five months after its launch, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the massive support provided by the West to this operation.
This less objective but quite frank admission came in an interview and an article written by the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeri Zalujni, for the British magazine The Economist.
“Just like the first World Cup, we have reached a point where technology has led us to a dead end,” he said. “There probably won’t be deep and beautiful progress,” he said, referring to the expected campaign that Ukrainians would launch on June 4.
This is the harshest Ukrainian assessment yet of the counteroffensive problems reported in months. Russian defense lines along key areas in the south and east of the country were much stronger than expected.
In addition, the use of new NATO systems is planned [aliança militar ocidental], like Leopard 2 tanks, was not crucial, and not only because they were not available in large quantities. Zalujni admits that it was difficult to adapt tactically to his deployment.
From a strategic point of view, he points out that there was pride in the aim of the action, which was to cut the land connection that Vladimir Putin’s troops had established between Russia and Crimea, which was destroyed by the Russians in 2014 after the fall of the Soviet Union was annexed. government government. Moscow in Ukraine.
“If you look at the NATO manuals and the calculations we have done [planejando a contraofensiva]“Four months should be enough to reach Crimea, fight in Crimea, return from Crimea and travel back and forth again,” he noted in amazement.
Without using the word failure for obvious political reasons, he says that militarytechnological progress has “put us and our enemies in a state of stupor” and that the war is now heading into a phase of attrition that favors Russia which , as he said, has quickly adapted military tactics, thereby negating the West’s technological advantages.
He acknowledges that Putin, having struggled to mobilize enough forces for the February 2022 invasion, has the abundant manpower of a country with a population three times his size and that he is willing to accept losses.
“That was my fault. Russia has lost at least 150,000 soldiers killed. In any other country, such losses would have ended the war. Let’s face it: it is a feudal state where human life is the cheapest resource,” he said.
Zalujni says that Russia continues to have enormous superiority in weapons and ammunition and expects that there will be bombing attacks on the Ukrainian energy system in Europe next winter.
He states that NATO’s military production is increasing, but that it could take a year or two to have an impact on the battlefield, as was the case with the promise to deliver American F16 fighter jets to Kiev, which actually happened should be available from April 2024 and in reduced quantities. The alliance itself has already stated that the supply of ammunition for artillery, which, according to Zalujni, accounts for up to 80% of military activity in this war, is running out.
As a result, the war of attrition poses “enormous risks for the armed forces of Ukraine and the state,” which can only be overcome if the West quickly ensures air superiority, better electronic warfare equipment and technology for breaking through minefields.
Regarding the shopping list, he explained that it was up to the Ukrainians to improve their ability to mobilize. It was a reference to reports of the sale of military exemptions that contributed to the downfall of Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov in September.
Militarily, failure does not mean that the Ukrainians have not made concrete progress. The main aim was to endanger Putin’s Black Sea Fleet through missile attacks on its bases in Crimea and to increase the use of drones against Russian ships and cities.
However, this did not change the situation on the ground, as around 20% of Ukraine is in the hands of the Kremlin. On the other hand, the Russians also failed to win decisive victories, although they regained the initiative in Donetsk (east) and Kharkiv (northeast) and economically oppressed their rival by preventing grain exports through the Black Sea. Hence the impasse mentioned by the general, which in practice favors the Russians.
The extensive interview and ninepage article detailing the situation on the ground, available to the magazine’s subscribers, come at a time when the West is reassessing its support for Kiev’s war against the invaders.
In Eastern Europe, Slovakia elected a government that promises to cut off arms shipments, as Poland did before the current ruling party hit a deadlock in Oct. 15 elections. Hungary had already ruled out aid to Kiev as its prime minister proudly shook Putin’s hand in China last month.
In the USA, the House of Representatives is in the hands of a radical supporter of Donald Trump, who has already stated that he is against continuing massive support for the Ukrainians. The former president is expected to try to return to office next year in a dispute with Joe Biden, and the campaign will put the Democrat on the defensive with no concrete results to show in Ukraine.
Making matters worse, Israel’s war against Hamas and the threat of regional expansion of the conflict have consumed all government and media attention in the US and the West, diverting focus from the Ukraine issue. Biden has tried to sell a single aid package for the two allies in 2024, estimated at R$500 billion, but there are several difficulties.
This was the value of all military aid to Ukraine recorded by the Institute for the World Economy in Kiel (Germany) up to July, of which around R$370 billion came from the USA. If the value falls, it is certain that Washington’s Western allies will follow suit.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has escalated his grievances over growing Western criticism of his military deployment. On Wednesday (31) he said: “The modern world gets used to success very quickly.” There have been no comments on the report yet, but it would be difficult for Zalujni to say what he said without the boss’s approval.