War between Israel and Hamas Why Benjamin Netanyahus political future

War between Israel and Hamas: Why Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future has darkened since the October 7 attacks

The Israeli Prime Minister, who has been weakened for several months, is under sharp criticism and is considered one of those responsible for the terrorist group’s attacks in his country.

Benjamin Netanyahu is criticized. While some blame him for possible security failures following the deadly Hamas attacks, the Israeli prime minister has been at the center of a new controversy since Monday, October 30. The press published a document classified as “defense secret” that it received in 2016 and warned of the risks of an offensive by the Islamist movement, accompanied by a hostage situation.

With these revelations, the unpopular conservative leader at the head of an emergency government falls even further into a political crisis. Franceinfo explains why.

Because he is at the head of a fragile government of national unity

On October 9, two days after the Hamas offensive that killed at least 1,400 people in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu called for the formation of a “government of national unity.” This makeshift executive is expected to remain in place for the duration of the war against the Palestinian Islamist movement and has limited resources, lacking the ability to legislate or promote policies unrelated to the fighting in Gaza . At the same time, a war cabinet (consisting of the Prime Minister, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Benny Gantz, one of the opposition leaders) is responsible for deciding on the response strategy in the fight against Hamas, without having to consult the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

But despite the unprecedented scale of the October 7 attacks, forming this emergency government proved difficult. Intensive negotiations took place between Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition figures to reach an agreement. In times of crisis with the Palestinian territories, it typically takes less than 24 hours for a government of national unity to be formed in Israel. This time it took Benjamin Netanyahu five days to reach an agreement and a positive vote in the Knesset.

Another element that illustrates the fragility of this executive branch: it does not benefit from the support of all Israeli political parties. If Benny Gantz, Benjamin Netanyahu’s main opponent, has agreed to join the emergency government and the war cabinet, this is not the case with Yaïr Lapid, the other major opposition politician. As the newspaper La Croix explains, the former head of Israeli diplomacy rejected the prime minister’s offer. He doesn’t want to join a team that he believes is made up of “extremists.” The criticism is particularly directed at Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of Public Security and leader of the right-wing extremist group “Jewish Force,” and Bezalel Smotrich, Jewish racist and current finance minister.

Because responsibility has been pointed out since the Hamas attacks

It didn’t take long for Benjamin Netanyahu to become personally implicated regarding possible Israeli security deficiencies. First, Israel ignored a warning from Egypt “three days before the attack” by Hamas, a US Congressional committee revealed in early October.

The prime minister is also accused of ignoring warnings from his own services back in 2016. The secret defense document, published on Monday by the daily Yediot Aharonot, warns of the danger of a major attack by Hamas’ armed wing and describes its modus operandi, particularly a hostage situation. This report, signed by the hand of former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, was handed over to Benjamin Netanyahu, then head of government, the Israeli press reports. On October 28, the Prime Minister nevertheless denied the existence of such a document and refused any mea culpa.

In a message posted on X (formerly Twitter) on October 29, he even blamed Israeli intelligence and security officials. “Never and under no circumstances was the prime minister made aware of Hamas’ warlike intentions,” he wrote. The message was deleted and replaced with an apology. “The attempt to evade responsibility and blame the security apparatus weakens the IDF [l’armée israélienne] while fighting against the enemies of Israel,” denounced the opposition leader Yair Lapid.

According to geopolitics doctor Frédéric Encel, part of the Israeli population also criticizes Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies towards Hamas. The Likud leader is accused of “letting the situation rot” by allowing the development of the Palestinian movement, which is in power in the Gaza Strip, to fuel divisions with the Palestinian Authority, which administers the West Bank . The aim: to prevent the creation of a unified Palestinian state and to have more scope for the continuation of the colonization of the West Bank, analyzes researcher Frédérique Schillo, a specialist in the history of Israel.

Yaïr Lapid had already made this accusation against Benjamin Netanyahu in mid-October, with the conviction that “whoever makes a mistake cannot repair it.” But it’s not just the opposition that criticizes the current head of government for not protecting the Israeli population from terrorist attacks. Within the Likud itself, some are calling for the establishment of a state commission of inquiry following the war against Hamas. Appointed by the government, she would be particularly responsible for determining the prime minister’s responsibility for the series of attacks on Israeli soil.

Because the attacks made him even more unpopular

Since the October 7 attacks, Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity has been in free fall. About 20.5% of Israelis now trust their government, up from 28% in June, according to an Israel Democracy Institute poll released Oct. 23. A very large majority of respondents (78%) also viewed the Prime Minister’s actions negatively in the week following the attacks.

As a sign of this unpopularity, demonstrations even took place in front of his house in Israel demanding that “Bibi” resign. In addition to criticism of possible security deficiencies, the executive branch is also criticized for its response strategy by the families of the more than 200 hostages still in the hands of Hamas. For the relatives of these missing people held in the Gaza Strip, the intense bombings in the Palestinian enclave are putting their lives at risk.

“Part of the social contract between a people and their government is to ensure the security of the population. This is a complete failure,” analyzes Yossi Mekelberg, a researcher who specializes in the Israeli-Palestinian question. Especially since Benjamin Netanyahu made security one of his election slogans in the November 2022 parliamentary elections.

However, the Likud leader’s unpopularity is not due to the war. His return to power almost a year ago was marked by a large popular protest movement over a controversial bill to reform the justice system. Every weekend for nine months, thousands of Israelis expressed their anger and opposition to this reform desired by the Prime Minister. Many political analysts in Israel therefore believe that the rest of Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career is in serious jeopardy. A former Israeli general even asserted in comments to the Times of Israel that it is now imperative for the Jewish state to change its leader.