This information, published by Bloomberg magazine, illustrates the tensions between the Hebrew state and Moscow, the sponsor of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.
Since the IDF offensive against the Gaza Strip following Hamas’s unprecedented attack on the Jewish state on October 7, already tense relations between Russia and Israel have rapidly deteriorated. In the background is the alliance between Moscow and Iran – the archenemy of the Israelis – which is strengthening from month to month against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, especially in military cooperation.
A recent example of this Russian-Israeli cooling concerns Syria, whose government under Bashar al-Assad has relied on its two Iranian and Russian sponsors for its security since the 2011 civil war. According to Bloomberg, Israelis are no longer systematically warning “This is a decisive change in Israeli policy,” the American magazine explains, citing “people close to the matter.”
Conflict resolution
In Syria, Russia has a naval base in Tartus in the northwest of the country and an air base in Hmeimim further east. Powerful radars and the long-range air defense systems S400 and S300-PMU2 are used there. But since the deployment of Russian troops on the ground in Syria in 2015 to support Bashar al-Assad in the face of the uprising and to avoid any risk of escalation with Israel, Moscow and Tel Aviv have introduced a conflict management mechanism: on the one hand, Israel warns Russia before his attacks; On the other hand, Russia does not intercept Israeli planes or missiles.
This coordination was necessitated by the presence in Syria of Hezbollah fighters and broader Shiite militias, who fight alongside the Syrian army but pose a threat to Israel on its shared border with Syria. Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed forces are, in fact, part of the self-proclaimed “Axis of Resistance” that opposes the policies and existence of the Jewish state occupying the Golan Heights. – legally still an integral part of Syria – since its victory in the Six-Day War in 1967.
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“In 2018, Vladimir Putin assured Benjamin Netanyahu that he would do everything he could to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from gaining a foothold in southwest Syria,” Bloomberg recalls. Since then, Israeli F-15, F-16 and F-35 fighter jets have carried out regular strikes in Syria, particularly targeting arms shipments from Iran to its “proxies” in the region. AFP has listed “several hundred” since 2011.
This has been particularly true since the Hamas attack on October 7, which killed more than 1,400 people in Israel and led to the taking of 200 more people hostage. On October 22, Damascus and Aleppo airports were “decommissioned,” according to Syrian state media. On October 27, there were renewed attacks on Aleppo airport, but also on Syrian positions in the southern province of Deraa east of the Golan, from where shots were fired at Israel, the Hebrew state justified itself. The Syrian Defense Ministry acknowledged the deaths of eight of its soldiers in that attack. On October 30, Israel again attacked targets in Syria in response to rocket fire, again towards Daraa. “Israel did not inform Russia in advance of these attacks,” Bloomberg said, citing the presence of Iranian officers and soldiers in Daraa, as well as members of the Russian military police who have been officially stationed in the country since 2015.
Risk of escalation
The Israeli authorities have not officially responded to this lack of warning, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant only stating at a press conference on Tuesday that “we will neither authorize the establishment of a new Hezbollah front there nor an Iranian military presence in Syria.” In fact, there is a risk of regional escalation in the region, as Hezbollah has been firing rockets into northern Israel since the October 7 attack and the Hebrew state is retaliating in southern Lebanon. A new front on the Syrian-Israeli border, where pro-Iranian fighters are present, would be a new milestone and very risky for regional security. “Spillover in Syria is not just a risk; It has already begun, Geir Pedersen, the United Nations special envoy to the country, said this week, quoted by Bloomberg. We are filling a powder magazine with fuel that has already started to ignite.”
This Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reiterated in a highly anticipated television interview that the prospect of “all-out war is realistic” and that “all options” are on the table. For now, the escalation is purely rhetorical, as the Shiite leader has largely refrained from declaring war on the Jewish state. In fact, none of the major players in the region, including Iran, have any interest in going too far. But the risk exists, all the more so if the end of the deconfliction procedures between Israel and Russia were confirmed, which would automatically increase the risk of an accident between the two powers.
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For the Jewish state, the political balance with Moscow no longer applies, especially since the Russians welcomed a Hamas delegation in Moscow last week led by Musa Abu Marzouk and, at his invitation, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri met, according to the Iranian press his Russian counterpart Mikhail Bogdanov was also with them. Furthermore, on October 28, in the Muslim Russian province of Dagestan, a crowd attacked a plane arriving from Tel Aviv, further increasing the Jewish state’s concerns, while the Russians in turn blamed the actions of foreign intelligence services, including Ukraine.