Spanish policy is repeated, although always with important differences. While Thursday’s hectic day was at times reminiscent of the dramatic October 26, 2017, when Carles Puigdemont began the day by contemplating calling elections and eventually declaring independence, this Friday had a distant whiff of a very special Friday, too Pedro Sanchez was about to be inaugurated. It was on January 3, 2020, just four days before the vote, when the pact with the ERC was almost finalized but its highest body had yet to vote on it. The Central Electoral Board met urgently on Friday January 3, an unusual date in the middle of the Christmas holidays, and decided to disqualify Quim Torra, then President of the Generalitat, and refused to release the MEP file of the then in prison Oriol Junqueras to edit. Every four days before the vote. The crisis that this decision triggered was close to ruining the investiture, but eventually the ERC resisted the pressure, abstained and Sánchez became president with a two-seat lead.
This Friday, shortly after it was announced that the amnesty law would cover the CDR and the Tsunami Democràtic case, two decisions directly related to the investiture arrived on the same day, hardly coincidental as in 2020: The Audiencia Nacional ordered the opening of an oral trial against a dozen “CDR” accused of terrorism, and the Guardia Civil delivered the final report on the tsunami case, which concluded that Marta Rovira, Secretary General of the ERC, who was in the Switzerland had fled and was one of the ringleaders. And while these relevant decisions were being taken, the opposition intensified its offensive against the amnesty, with increasingly harsh statements aimed at breaking off the negotiations and preventing the inauguration of Sánchez, calling on social networks for a demonstration in front of the doors of the PSOE amnesty headquarters on Ferraz Street in Madrid.
In this extremely difficult context, in which the government, despite everything, continues to trust in pushing forward the investiture, Carles Puigdemont once again delayed the Socialists all day, maintaining for the time being his refusal to finalize the pact that was supposed to be concluded. on Thursday To the bill in Congress the same day. Nevertheless, the messages from both the PSOE and the independents do not point to a pause, but rather a delay, for which there is currently no fixed date. Junts insists that there is no hurry and that the Socialists are in the most hurry because they want the inauguration next week. Its general secretary, Jordi Turull, sent a message to the leadership in which he announced with great drama that “hours and days of great pressure lie ahead for the party” and clearly indicated what appears to be the last major obstacle, namely the To introduce amnesty for people close to the party or Puigdemont who could be excluded because their case is declared secret, such as the Voloh case in which Josep Lluís Alay, head of Puigdemont’s office, is involved and in which he may be involved Relationship with the Kremlin is complicated: “We will not carry out a VIP amnesty, we will not leave soldiers lying around,” said Turull.
The amnesty, according to various sources in the negotiations, is very wide-ranging and affects hundreds of people, but in principle is strictly limited to events related to the trial for a decade. In addition, Junts wants absolute guarantees that judges cannot look for formulas not to apply the amnesty. The standard provides for setting deadlines for their application. However, some lawyers interviewed point out that caution should be exercised when applying the time limits set for judges, as this could have implications for Article 24 of the Constitution, which states: “All persons.” exercise their rights and legitimate interests to receive effective protection from judges and courts.”
In Brussels, the epicenter of the Junts debates, there was another day of mystery and confusion in which it was not even clear whether there would be meetings between Santos Cerdán, Sánchez’s negotiator, who has been in the Belgian capital since Wednesday to try, whether or not to make the pact, and Puigdemont and his trusted team. Cerdán returned to Madrid on Friday evening and sources in the negotiations assure that the talks will continue electronically and that there is a “possibility of an agreement”, although this does not appear immediate due to the legal “complexity” of the negotiations. “The talks continue, they have not been interrupted or interrupted, nor has there been a break at any time.” It is likely that the negotiations will last until Monday or Tuesday, the last days on which the investiture debate will take place next week. “We are not setting a deadline or putting any pressure on it, because there is no other possible investiture, there is no one asking for it to be passed, so it is the only possible investiture,” these sources in Brussels stressed.
In Catalonia it became clear once again how great the distance is between the two major rivals of the political independence movement. While the republican militancy confirmed the agreement in its internal consultation with 89% of the votes, joining the path marked by its president Oriol Junqueras, there is a certain confusion among Junts after the twist in the script that cools the approach ahead Yes to Pedro Sánchez.
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The Republicans spent the whole day in different places to explain the contents of the agreement that Junqueras himself and the acting minister of the presidency, Félix Bolaños, signed in Barcelona on Thursday. And although a closer reading of the fine print suggests that the complexity of measures such as the transfer of the Catalan Cercanías will be implemented quickly, the general opinion was that the aim of showing itself as a serious political formation had been achieved and that it had kept its word holds.
The result of the internal consultation in the ERC is a huge boost for the strategy of the party, which, given the emergence of the Junts as a necessary partner for investiture, has decided to focus on extracting sectoral improvements from the PSOE, assuming that the amnesty does already done has been done. The voting result is very similar to the result achieved by the tandem Oriol Junqueras and Marta Rovira in the party leadership election last November. 50% of voting members took part in the vote, with the chair receiving 87% yes.
Junts sources believe there won’t be much movement over the weekend, but no one thinks negotiations are dead, so agreement remains the most likely option. Ironically, the party’s ranks say that they already have a lot of experience with telematics meetings (alluding to the fact that Puigdemont cannot set foot on Spanish territory because otherwise he would be arrested) and therefore a new meeting can be held as quickly as possible There is an agreement, although investiture is now no longer possible. It will happen when the PSOE expects it. The big risk is that rather than bringing the agreement closer, time will push it further away due to increasing pressure in all sectors, not just in the opposition but also among the most hardline independents who want it to overthrow investiture, even if it is futile. Opposite reasons.
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