Ari Wasserman, David Ubben and Max Olson previewed the biggest games of Week 10 of the college football season on the “Until Saturday” podcast. The trio discussed the week’s biggest games and made picks against the spread of Kansas State at Texas, Washington at USC, LSU at Alabama, Missouri at Georgia and more.
Below is an edited, condensed version of their discussion of several Week 10 games. The full episode includes a discussion of Oklahoma (-6) at Oklahoma State, Penn State (-8.5) at Maryland, Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson, Texas A&M at Ole Miss (-3), Kansas at Iowa State (-2.5). ), Cal at Oregon (-24)
You can listen to the full episode here.
Kansas State at Texas (-4)
Aquarius: This is a game that will go a long way in deciding the Big 12 Championship Game. Worrying levels. We’ll start with you, Max.
Olson: I don’t want to upset you here, but I’m very worried about Maalik Murphy in this game.
Aquarius: You don’t upset me. You’re not saying anything that I’m not aware of.
Olson: I don’t doubt it, but this is a deer-in-the-headlights kind of opportunity. You will be stressed and pressured to make big mistakes. Kansas State knows how to create stops in the red zone. And if you look at some of these big games that Texas has played over the last few years, that’s kind of the Achilles’ heel for (coach Steve Sarkisian’s) offense: Can you finish these drives for touchdowns?
Aquarius: The stats say K State is a top 5 red zone defense and I think Texas is outside the top 100. This is worrying.
Olson: K-State has had 20 red zone trips this season and the defense has only allowed six touchdowns. Texas defense in terms of allowing touchdowns, six touchdowns for 22. So the Texas defense is pretty good in the spot too, but I kind of like K-State +4 here, guys. That would be extremely impressive if Maalik Murphy can be the guy they need on downs and they can really lean on Jonathon Brooks and CJ Baxter in this game. But I don’t know, guys. I think this is the Big 12 title game, these two. I still feel that way.
Ubben: Really? Interesting. I’m just not sure K-State isn’t going to just throw seven guys in the box and say, “Okay, you’re not going to rush us.” Malik? If you want to be the guy, be the guy.” I think if this was in Manhattan, I would like K-State Moneyline. It’s an Austin. I just like K-State Moneyline here. K-State is so tough and so disciplined. I mean, it’s kind of amazing that it feels like K State had Bill Snyder for a long time, did an ill-advised job, brought him back, and then when they got their next job, it seemed like maybe they had the next one found Bill Snyder. Chris Klieman and his teams look remarkably similar and play remarkably similar in that they simply don’t beat themselves. And I think Maalik Murphy wasn’t pushed last week. Ari, you watched the game more closely than I did. How many pressure throws did he have to make? It didn’t seem like much.
Aquarius: Texas won the game so easily it almost didn’t matter. And that’s what’s worrying.
If we compare what he did last week to what awaits him this week, I think it’s a completely different scenario.
This is the game Texas always seems to lose, even when they’re healthy. And now they have a quarterback we’re not 100% sure about. Do we like Kansas State here because this is the patented point of disappointment that Texas always seems unable to overcome, or is the quarterback play a concern for you?
Ubben: For me it is both. K-State has been red-hot the last few weeks.
I don’t think this is a disappointment because I think K-State is good and they seem to be playing their best football right now and still have a long way to go. And one of those teams is the defending Big 12 champions. Let’s not forget that either.
Aquarius: I’ll put the four.
Olson: I think it would be impressive if Texas won by any margin. For what they’re trying to accomplish, that would be impressive.
Aquarius: And the thing is, is it your business, Dave, that Texas is losing to a team it has nothing to lose against? I don’t think that applies here.
Ubben: No, I don’t think so either.
Washington (-3) at USC
Aquarius: USC stinks, but God, I just can’t help but shake the thought that they’re going to win.
Olson: We see that you are buying the dip. We see what you’re doing here.
Aquarius: First, the spread is nothing. Three is nothing.
USC’s defense is pathetic. The team doesn’t even look like it’s functional. But is this the right place? Am I crazy? Will anyone here buy it from me?
Why is the spread three?!
Ubben: Because we don’t know what’s going on with Washington. OK? Has anything strange happened in the last two games?
Does Washington have the longest hangover in college football history after the Oregon game? Have they been a bit overrated? I really don’t know the answer to that, but I do know that if you look at the totality of what we’ve seen from these teams, you can’t win USC in good faith. They still have perhaps the worst mood of any team we’ve ever seen.
Olson: I feel like if you look at Washington and their schedule and if they don’t get it done in this game, I think the road to 12-0 from here on out really isn’t that bad for them. So it’s a little tempting to choose USC. I kind of want to pick USC in this game. But I think we all know that Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb are just going to put them through hell.
I wish the number was six and then I would be at USC +6.
Aquarius: Don’t you wish gambling was as easy as finding out which team is better and then picking them to win? It is difficult. There’s something strange about this game. I feel like my brain is saying: Washington, Washington, Washington. Michael Penix will put his Heisman numbers on hold on Saturday. That’s a terrible defense.
Cal scored 49 points and nearly won by 51 points. They were two yards away. What are we talking about here? Still, I’ll take the points.
Olson: I’ll take the points here.
Missouri at Georgia (-15.5)
Aquarius: This is my castle of the week. It’s about men versus boys. Faster vs. fast, stronger vs. strong. I’m telling you, man.
Ubben: Can we focus on Georgia two weeks in a row?
Aquarius: Don’t you think they will be focused?
Ubben: Now, this isn’t a rivalry game. And does the little number next to Mizzou’s name mean anything for Georgia? I do not really know. But I think this game is up to Georgia.
Olson: Kirby (Smart) will tell his team that their quarterback is the best in the SEC. Let’s ruin him.
Aquarius: I will say it’s 28-0 at the end of the first quarter.
Ubben: This is a house money special. Mizzou and Eli Drinkwitz can let it rip. I think ultimately it all comes down to Georgia because Mizzou will do what Mizzou will do. They have good weapons. I think they can put some points on the board. Mizzou, if you want to label it a “cheat” based on their wins, okay, then you have Kansas State. It took a small miracle to make this happen, but beyond that there’s not much to write home about.
Aquarius: It’s not about cheating.
Ubben: I know that. My point is that this game is on Georgia.
Aquarius: They are all.
Ubben: If Georgia, which has played against Auburn and South Carolina, shows up, Mizzou can and would win this game. If Georgia plays an A-minus game, they will win and possibly cover. If they play an A-to-A-Plus game, things could get ugly because they can win that game in the trenches.
Olson: I agree with you that Georgia will report on this. The Tigers have a lot to prove.
Ubben: I take Mizzou here just to be different.
LSU at Alabama (-3)
Aquarius: I think Alabama will win this football game. I think they will reassert themselves as the dominant force in the sport. There are two teams in college football that I think can compete and be physical against Georgia, and Alabama is one of them. And I think the cream will rise to the top again. And even though they were dysfunctional offensively at times, I think we went to bed with them a little too early, and I think this weekend we’re starting to remember what it was all about.
Ubben: I can imagine a situation where Jayden Daniels just throws to LSU and they win that ballgame, but Alabama might have the best defense in the country. And I think Jalen Milroe will be able to make plays against this LSU secondary. I think Alabama is giving in here. I think they win by double digits.
Olson: It’s hard to bet against (Nick) Saban in the shootout. There needs to be a little more balance to not tire Daniels as much as he did against Alabama last year, but I think he could do something really special in this game. But I just can’t really bet against Saban on this one.
Castles of the week
Aquarius: Georgia -15.5 vs. Missouri, mostly to upset Dave Ubben and his romantic view of the sport we all love.
Ubben: Kentucky -3.5 at Mississippi State. Mississippi State is not very good. I checked her file and thought: Is there a game I’m forgetting? No, that does not exist. I don’t understand that at all.
Olson: Michigan -32.5 vs. Purdue. I could write the pre-game speech about it. It’s easy to predict what you would say to your team. They would say everyone lies to us. They think we cheated our way to the top. They think we’re a joke. Ryan Day is trying to shut us out of the Big Ten title game. Let’s go out there and show that we’re the best team in the country and just take it all out on Purdue.
(Photo by Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington: Tim Warner / Getty Images)