The big slate of NFL games wasn’t in Week 8, but it was right in front of me.
But two games went wrong in the final seconds, two games where I had the right handicap but ended up losing to the other side at the end of the game.
The first came Thursday night when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored a late touchdown thanks to two major penalties that kept the drive alive. Then came the final one, as the Baltimore Ravens gave up ten late points to give the Arizona Cardinals the back door.
This increased my ATS record from 10-5-1 to a dismal 8-7-1. That stinks. That puts my season record at 58-60-4. I took an immediate lead 11:5, which increased the record to 73:49.
Let’s hope there are no backdoor covers for me this week – unless, of course, they go my way.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Rookie Will Levis was special in his first NFL start, but that’s a tall order against the Steelers’ road defense on a short week. Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett said he will play with a rib injury, but how limited will he be? Their offensive line was terrible last week, and that will be true here too. Levis will play well enough to lead the Titans to victory.
Choose: Titans 23, Steelers 17 (Result: Steelers 20, Titans 16)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
The Chiefs suffered a loss in Denver, where the offense didn’t look great. Miami impressed by beating New England, but they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. This is a great opportunity. I just don’t think it will happen. Patrick Mahomes will get the most out of the Dolphins’ defense as he gets back into the swing of things right after his flu game last week.
Choose: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 26
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, I highly recommend taking a look at the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been in full swing this year. Give it a try if you want to know which side you should bet on.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Vikings start rookie Jarran Hall in this game, which will be a challenge for their offense. Atlanta could also make a change at quarterback, as Desmond Ridder was benched last week. The Falcons will limit Hall and win this game no matter who plays quarterback for them.
Choose: Falcons 27, Vikings 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ravens lackluster beat the Cardinals last week, while Seattle came back to beat the Browns and PJ Walker. Seattle’s defense is improving every week, and the addition of Leonard Williams will help, but that’s a long shot against a team that can score. Look for Lamar Jackson to play better than he did last week.
Choose: Ravens 27, Seahawks 18
Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Cardinals are headed in the wrong direction after a solid start, but that could be who they are. The Browns lost to the Seahawks last week, but played much better on defense than the week before. This will be a big challenge for Cardinals quarterback Clayton Tune. The Browns are the much better team here and they are at home. You can do this.
Choose: Browns 30, Cardinals 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
These are back-to-back road games for the Rams after being dominated by the Cowboys last week. And Matthew Stafford is injured. The Packers didn’t look good in their home loss to the Vikings last week, but their season is on the line here and I think they’ll play like it.
Choose: Packers 27, Rams 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bucs have lost three straight as the offense has struggled of late. The Texans suffered a loss to the Panthers, whose offense didn’t work well. The Bucs will have three days of extra rest and I think that will help the offense get back on track. They take it tight.
Choose: Bucs 24, Texans 23
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Commanders have big problems in defense and replaced their two top players this week. But New England’s offense is limited. So what is there? I think the Patriots are the first choice at home. When two bad teams meet, take the home team, especially against one with a poor defense.
Choose: Patriots 24, Commanders 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bears play back-to-back road games, which can be challenging. They could have Justin Fields back, which is what it takes. The Saints got their offense going against the Colts, with Derek Carr playing well. That will continue here against a Bears defense that is just fine.
Choose: Saints 28, Bears 13
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Panthers got their first win last week, with the offense coming a little late to score the game-winning field goal. This should also have an impact on the Colts defense, which has struggled greatly over the last two weeks. The Colts are inconsistent on offense against Gardner Minshew, and that comes into play here as well. The Panthers get their second win.
Choose: Panthers 23, Colts 20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Raiders have major problems on offense, but the Giants are coming off a game with minus-9 yards passing. That seems almost impossible under today’s NFL rules. But it happened. So who wins here? The Giants could be in need of a third-team quarterback, so I’ll go with the Raiders. You can score 20, right?
Choose: Raiders 20, Giants 13
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a huge game to start the season in the NFC East. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL, but they still haven’t looked great. The Cowboys have made improvements in the last two games, particularly on offense. I think that will show if the Cowboys pull off the upset and Dak Prescott has a big game.
Choose: Cowboys 31, Eagles 29
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Bengals have come back to life after a slow start due to Joe Burrow’s calf injury earlier in the season, which had a major impact on the offense. Buffalo played looser last week against the Bucs and they have three additional days of rest. This will be an entertaining offensive game that goes right to the end. It’s close, but the Bengals will win late.
Choose: Bengals 31, Bills 30
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The Chargers seemed to have everything sorted against the Bears, but that’s a long shot against a good defensive team. That will pose problems for Justin Herbert. The Chargers’ defense has been poor for most of the season, but they showed some improvement last week. Look for the Chargers to come here and make the most of it while Herbert does enough to get it out late.
Choose: Chargers 21, Jets 17