The war between Hamas and Israel, which ends its first month next Tuesday (7), has put the Middle East back at the center of global concern and reopened wounds that have been overshadowed by crises from climate to Ukraine.
The Palestinian terrorist group’s devastating attack, which was the largest in military terms in 50 years and the deadliest in the 75 years of the Jewish state, and Israel’s violent response against the Gaza Strip in which it is located, raised more questions than answers of the things available can be described as simple.
The following are some of the questions raised during the conflict, which, according to those involved, killed more than 1,400 Israelis and citizens of other countries, as well as nearly 10,000 Palestinians.
Did Hamas act alone?
The level of sophistication of the operation, which Israel said involved 3,000 men using motorized paragliders to invade by land, sea and even air, was surprising.
How could a force that had been trapped for 16 years achieve such lethal effectiveness? The answer lies in the fact that in recent years under Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel has turned a blind eye to supplies arriving in Gaza, particularly from Qatar, a country close to Iran.
Reason: weakening the ANP (Palestinian National Authority), a rival to Hamas, which rules the West Bank. This, in turn, is the area that Netanyahu would like to see filled with Jewish settlements while simultaneously making peace with moderate Arabs and alienating Palestinians.
Tehran is a sponsor of the Axis of Resistance, as it calls the group of antiIsrael actors in the region: Syria, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Hamas, among other smaller groups. It donated about R$500 million annually to the Gaza Group.
However, this does not explain the problem of the 5,000 rocket fire that Hamas says it used at the start of the conflict and which continues to be fired. Even if they are all homemade, it will require machinery and explosives that would arrive by land there is a lot of sea shipping and smuggling of humanitarian cargo.
As for the execution itself, both Iran and Hezbollah swear they had nothing to do with what they describe as a “glorious action.” So far, the declaration appears to have convinced the United States, Israel’s guarantor, and Tel Aviv.
What is Hamas’ goal?
Given that the destruction of the Gaza Strip and its military structure would be a foreseeable outcome of the attack, Hamas appears to have expected that the retaliation would trigger a regional war involving at least Hezbollah. This happened partially, but nothing like a fullscale attack from Lebanon and some rockets fired from Yemen.
In the short term, Hamas and Iran achieved what they wanted, whether they acted together or not: they derailed the ongoing normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors, which accelerated in 2020 and could lead to peace with Saudi Arabia Tehran was isolated. In addition, Jordan, a pillar of Tel Aviv’s stability since 1993, has frozen its relations, as has one of the Jewish state’s new friends, Bahrain.
The Iranians were already trying to circumvent Israel when they resumed relations with Riyadh under the auspices of China, an ally of the ayatollahs and their partner Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, which maintains bases in Syria. How lasting the damage will be to the USsponsored peace plan that ignored the Palestinians appears to have to do with the extent of the destruction in Gaza.
What is the image of Israel?
The attacks triggered an unprecedented wave of solidarity in Tel Aviv. European countries that criticized his policies towards the Palestinians paid tribute to him. But this is gradually remaining in the political rearview mirror, despite Israel’s efforts to reveal new and brutal details, not to mention the suffering of the hostages 250, 57 dead by Hamas, 241 by Israel’s count.
But the spread of images of the destruction ravaging Gaza and the fact that Hamas is using the population as a de facto shield complicate the Israeli position. Protests in the US and Europe, countries freezing their relations, all this tends to increase without a ceasefire. He is rejected by Tel Aviv without releasing the hostages, but negotiations continue under the leadership of Washington and Doha.
Politically, Netanyahu’s weak government is at an impasse: it must respond not only to please the right, but also because October 7 is a national trauma. The Prime Minister tries to capitalize on the unity, but faces criticism and is at odds with even the uniformed leadership. A possible release of hostages could change the mood for a military pause, but does not end the crisis.
What will happen to Gaza?
This question depends on what is not known: whether Israel has a plan. Let’s assume that Hamas is incapacitated, as Netanyahu wants. Who will govern the ruins and work to rebuild the territory? Since Egypt already has American support to prevent an exodus to its country, more than two million people in Hamas will have to be cared for “the day after tomorrow.”
The ANP would be the option, but the government is known for corruption and is demoralized. On the other hand, it is a United Nationsapproved entity that could create a multinational peacekeeping force with soldiers from Arab countries to administer Gaza until the ANP is in place, perhaps in a sanitized version supported by all.
However, this would require the consent of Russia and China in the Security Council, which would not be easy. Moscow wants to restart a twostate project, but this runs into the ineptitude of the ANP and Netanyahu who is already seen by many as a political corpse awaiting burial.
The complicating bonus is the reality on the ground: the proIranian environment will continue to work against it, Hamas has cells outside Gaza, and Palestinian trauma with retaliatory violence tends to fuel radical factions.
Is there a risk of the war expanding?
A dire scenario envisioned Hezbollah entering the war on Hamas’s side, leading to the intervention of powerful American aircraft carriers in nearby waters and potentially drawing Iran into it. Even Putin joined the dance by threatening US ships, which would amount to an unthinkable third world war.
None of this happened, although tensions remain very high and misjudgments could lead to escalations (think of an American ship hit by a missile). On Friday (3) the leader of Hezbollah confirmed what his godfathers had seen in Tehran: high tones, the risk of further conflict, but all in the context of exerting pressure on Israel and the USA.
This can also be read backwards: everyone is afraid of the enormous firepower of the USA, and no one forgets that Israel has around 90 nuclear warheads in the border area. It is a deterrent that is incapable of preventing border attacks and missiles against American bases in Iraq and Syria, but is sufficient for now to prevent further action.
On the other hand, if Hamas is destroyed, there will be an additional temptation in Tel Aviv to settle scores with Hezbollah, a much greater threat, which explains the group’s lack of clarity so far.