According to this poll released on Sunday, November 5th, a year before the presidential election, Donald Trump would win in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada.
This is a poll that should make the White House sweat. Exactly a year before the American presidential election, an opinion poll published this Sunday by the New York Times estimates that Donald Trump is the winner in five of the six key states, these crucial territories for the election of the next President of the United States.
According to this poll, Donald Trump would win in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada. In 2020, Georgia and Nevada, where Joe Biden struggled to win, proved crucial to the Democratic candidate’s victory. Today, Donald Trump would have a relatively comfortable lead there (52% versus 41% in Nevada, 49% versus 43% in Georgia).
Joe Biden, on the other hand, would defeat his Republican rival in Wisconsin, a state he won three years ago, but his margin (48% vs. 44%) is narrower than the “investigation’s” margin of error. . The latter was conducted by Siena College among more than 3,600 Americans registered to vote between October 22 and November 3.
The Biden camp puts things into perspective
These results, which are unfavorable for Joe Biden, have their origins in particular in the dissatisfaction that the American president’s actions caused. In each of the six states tested, at least 60% of respondents believe their country is going “in the wrong direction,” and just 38% of those Americans say they approve of Joe Biden’s actions.
Americans surveyed trust Donald Trump more than Joe Biden on issues such as the economy, immigration, national security and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Biden camp quickly tried to put these results into perspective. “Forecasts a year in advance tend to be a little different a year later,” said Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for the Biden-Harris 2024 campaign.
Kevin Munoz specifically cited a poll that showed President Barack Obama largely defeated a year before his re-election in 2012 or the 2022 midterm elections that promised disaster for Joe Biden and in which Democrats limited the damage.
A specific return match?
At the national level, the current tenant of the White House and the former president enjoy almost equal status. According to RealClear Politics, on average in polls conducted last month, about 45% of voting intentions go toward Donald Trump and Joe Biden. However, keep in mind that it is possible to be elected President of the United States without winning the popular vote, as was the case with Trump against Hillary Clinton in 2016. The main thing is to reach the majority of voters (270 out of 538).
Polls like the one published on Sunday confirm the hypothesis of a rematch between Trump and Biden next year, but such a scenario is not guaranteed to occur.
Currently, the Democratic president, who has already announced his candidacy for re-election, appears to be the donkey party’s natural champion. As for Donald Trump, who was widely favored by Republicans in the Republican primaries, he will face a series of lawsuits in the coming months that will hamper his efforts to regain control of the Oval Office could.