On Monday, Polish President Andrzej Duda commissioned Mateusz Morawiecki from the currently ruling ultra-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) to form a government. In the elections on October 15, the incumbent Prime Minister was initially formed, but he did not receive the parliamentary majority required to form a government. However, the liberal opposition bloc exceeded the absolute majority. In a situation similar to the failed inauguration of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in Spain, the PiS faces the almost impossible task of forming an executive, while the three liberal parties have effectively concluded a coalition agreement that closes the path to the most right-wing options.
The president’s announcement ended three weeks of speculation and tension, a mixture of hope and resignation in the liberal party sector. Duda’s statements before the election indicated that, as was normal practice in parliament, he would nominate the party with the most votes, although there is no constitutional mandate requiring him to make this decision. His team maintained this line after the elections, although he recognized that the situation was more complicated this time.
“After calm analysis and consultation, I have decided to entrust Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki with forming the government. “That is why I have decided to continue the good parliamentary tradition, according to which the winning party is the first to have the opportunity to form a government,” he announced in a televised message, which he also shared on the social network (formerly Twitter). .
The President held a round of consultations with all parties on October 25 and 26. At the end of the meetings he did not announce his decision and his statements caused confusion among many. Duda explained that there are “two serious candidates for prime minister”: Morawiecki, who is currently in office, and Donald Tusk, who is supported by the Citizens Coalition, the Third Way and the Left. The PiS-led United Right coalition “assumes that it will have a majority in the Sejm.” [la Cámara baja del Parlamento]“said the chairman, who was a member of this party until he was appointed president.
No party or MP has expressed support for PiS, which won 194 seats in the elections, 37 fewer than the 231 needed for an absolute majority. Even if he had privately received the full support of the far-right Confederation Bank, which publicly continues to deny any agreement with the party still in government, the total of both would be 212, still far from the majority. Some leaders of Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s party assured that they already had six deputies from other parties ready to support them, without providing further details. However, they still wouldn’t fit together.
PiS has sought the support of the agrarian formation Polish People’s Party (PSL, Polish acronym), which is part of the center-right Third Way coalition. Just two days ago, on Saturday, Morawiecki tried to publicly tempt the leader of this party. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, one of the formation’s leading politicians, said in an interview that he saw himself perfectly as a minister in a cabinet led by the agrarian leader . This Monday, Duda also announced that he would appoint PSL MP Marek Sawicki as President of the Sejm.
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In the same interview, the still prime minister claimed that his election result was “the best of the PiS” and had received the support of almost eight million voters. “It is the best result in the history of the Third Polish Republic… after that of PiS in 2019.”
Comfortable absolute majority
The Liberal bloc has 248 MPs, a more than comfortable absolute majority. The three formations that make it up: Civic Coalition, a group of parties led by the Civic Platform (PO) of the conservative Donald Tusk; Third way, where together with PSL Polska 2050; and the Left – have been negotiating a government agreement practically since the day after the elections, which local media reported before the President announced his announcement that could be presented this Thursday. Tusk, who was attending an event in Wroclaw during Duda’s speech, said he would return to Warsaw to meet with his partners.
The talks between the three parties took place in private, but in public they were careful to show harmony in order to pressure the president over the decision he finally announced on Monday. During his appearance on October 26, the President emphasized that these formations “do not yet have a formal coalition or coalition agreement and therefore cannot yet name the names of ministerial candidates.” In this way he gave clues to the final designation.
The Polish press has leaked some details of the Liberal Pact, both the programmatic part and the distribution of ministries. According to them, the parties have agreed on a tax reduction for entrepreneurs and the technology sector, while maintaining the PiS program for support per child 500+, which grants about 110 euros per child per month and will come into force from January, increasing to 180. The Legalization of abortion, which was a key issue in Tusk and the Left’s election campaign, would be sidelined due to Third Way’s opposition, the leaks, which have not been officially confirmed, say.
The Polish Parliament exhausts its mandate this Friday and the newly elected representatives will take office on Monday the 13th. Morawiecki must present the cabinet he wants to form in the two weeks after the first session of the Sejm, which will then vote on it. If this fails, Parliament takes the initiative and makes its own proposal. The absolute majority of the liberal bloc would then guarantee an executive led by Donald Tusk.
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