By Stephen J. Nesbitt, Chad Jennings and Cody Stavenhagen
With the World Series parade over and the general manager meetings underway in Scottsdale, Arizona, a free agent like no other is officially available.
Shohei Ohtani’s free agency is towering over all other storylines this offseason as the baseball world awaits word on which teams will make $500 million offers to the game’s most valuable player. The free agent market could be slow at first as front offices put other pursuits on hold and save their money for a guy who, when healthy, will fill two roles with one roster spot.
Whatever team Ohtani chooses will have one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball as a designated hitter starting in 2024 and a top-notch starting pitcher starting in 2025 and beyond (after his second elbow surgery). The list of suitors interested in Ohtani is 30 teams long, although we can safely call more than half of them unlikely targets.
Listed below, in alphabetical order, are 12 teams expected to be in the running for Ohtani in free agency – the 10 teams The Athletic’s Jim Bowden named as likely landing spots, and two others, the Angels and Yankees, the other MLB- players predicted this summer as top Ohtani options. We examine how signing Ohtani would impact each team’s current and future rosters. How would his bat change the lineup as currently constructed in 2024? What squad change(s) could follow? And how does Ohtani change the core of each team in the long term?
The Red Sox’ most pressing need is pitching, which Ohtani would help with at some point, but not in the short term. He would also be another lefty in a lineup that already leans too heavily in that direction. And while the DH spot is technically open following the departure of Justin Turner, filling that gap with Ohtani Masataka would force Yoshida to play even more in left field (where he isn’t very good) while increasing the versatility of the lineup limit (something that was a priority last offseason). ). However, Ohtani is the biggest star in the sport, and the Red Sox’ biggest priority may be proving to their fan base that they are serious about winning again. Start with Ohtani, then figure out the rest and trust potential position players Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel to make the finances work out later.
First Craig Counsell, now Ohtani?! Adding Ohtani to this roster wouldn’t immediately make the Cubbies World Series favorites, but it would certainly make their lineup much more dangerous. They’ll miss Cody Bellinger assuming he signs elsewhere in free agency, but having Ohtani alongside Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Christopher Morel would instill fear in the victorious NL Central. The Cubs were in the bottom third of the league in OPS from the DH position last season. Ohtani manning the DH wouldn’t displace a core piece going forward either, although that would mean finding a defensive home for Morel – he played all of last season but most often DH – or shopping him as a trade candidate this winter. By 2025, the Cubs could implement a rotation with Ohtani, Justin Steele and a combination of Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Cade Horton.
How much of Arte Moreno’s money would it take to get Ohtani to return to Anaheim with another long-term contract? (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
The Angels raided their farm system to make one last attempt to win with Ohtani, but it backfired. Fast. Categorically. Terrible. But for this exercise, let’s imagine him heading back to the familiar confines of Anaheim and preparing to spend the 2020s with the Angels. That’s not hard to imagine. The 2024 roster would be very similar to the 2023 roster without Ohtani in the rotation. The lineup, barring any notable offseason additions, will be top-heavy and prone to collapsing at the slightest muscle strain or toe stub from Ohtani, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Looking forward, the Angels core, such as it is, will rely on a return to health from Ohtani, Trout and Rendon; about increased and sustained spending by owner Arte Moreno; and about potential pop-up position players coming from a farm system that has focused primarily on drafting and pitching in recent years. The starting pitching hierarchy will be mostly intact when Ohtani returns to the rotation in 2025 along with Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson and Patrick Sandoval. Everything remains so familiar and yet so unconvincing.
The Dodgers are the presumptive favorites to acquire Ohtani. He already knows the area. You have a list of stars around you. They have the DH spot open, with JD Martínez as a free agent. You have the money to spend and the willingness to spend it. With MVP winners Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani at the top of the lineup until at least 2027? [low whistle] Seasons will come and go. Other faces in the Los Angeles lineup will change. But these three will still do inexplicable damage to opposing pitching staffs. Meanwhile, Ohtani’s right arm also represents a godsend for the Dodgers, who are short of starters in 2023. For 2025, Ohtani could replace Walker Buehler in the rotation, who will be signed in free agency by then. The Dodgers will still have Dustin May, Bobby Miller and Tony Gonsolin at this point, as well as the Sheehans and Stones and Groves they starred with there this season. Maybe they’ll even bring back 37-year-old Clayton Kershaw and his surgically repaired shoulder to round out the band. Hey, while we’re thinking about Ohtani in Dodger blue, why don’t we keep dreaming?
No disrespect to Daniel Vogelbach and Mark Vientos, but there still seems to be room for improvement at the DH spot in Queens. They had an OPS of .700 at the DH position this season, ranking 11th of the 12 teams on this list. Their lineup could use some left wing power. And for a Mets team that sacrificed a ton of star power at the trade deadline, Ohtani could well fill that void, too. As for what acquiring Ohtani would mean for the Mets’ future, haven’t we asked ourselves that question at every step of the Steve Cohen era? The financial resources may be limitless, and Ohtani is the biggest baseball attraction in the world. Ask new manager Carlos Mendoza to put Ohtani in a lineup with Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo, apply to maintain the rotation until next year and see what happens. An initial one-two from Ohtani and Kodai Senga, who are under contract until at least 2027, sounds like a lot of wins. The following obviously applies here: Don’t overthink things. The Mets are spending a lot of money and the best player in the game is a free agent. Sign it and then move on.
Signing Ohtani as designated hitter would mean signing Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton at outside corners – either that or eating up a bunch of Stanton’s contract to go in a different direction within the next four years. That might not be such a bad thing, considering the Yankees already have a cost-controlled young Gold Glove shortstop (Anthony Volpe), a handful of high-profile options in center field (starting with Jasson Domínguez once he returns from elbow surgery). and some other young position players on the edge who, ideally, can fill other gaps in the infield and behind the plate at low cost. A big left-handed hitter like Ohtani’s would balance a right-leaning lineup well, and he could form a dangerous top-two in the rotation with staff ace Gerrit Cole starting in 2025. Designated hitter doesn’t appear to be a priority for the Yankees right now – they’ve used the position as a revolving door in recent years, using veterans for a day of partial rest, and the addition of Ohtani would mostly put an end to that practice – But signing Ohtani really feels like a Yankees thing. Historically speaking, anyway.
Is there a chance Harper and Ohtani could wear the same uniform next season? (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
The idea of Ohtani ending up in Philadelphia comes with some complications — like the fact that Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper all have to be on the field in every game — but it would definitely be fun. Let’s just put together the 2024 Opening Day lineup:
1. Trea Turner SS
2. Bryce Harper 1B
3. Shohei Ohtani DH
4. Nick Castellanos RF
5. Kyle Schwarber LF
6. Alec Bohm 3B
7. Bryson Stott 2B
8. JT Realmuto C
9. Brandon Marsh CF
FUN, baby! That’s six hitters — Ohtani, Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos and Schwarber — who each make over $20 million per season and are all under contract through at least 2025. Speaking of 2025, the Phillies will desperately need Ohtani in the rotation by then. Aaron Nola is currently a free agent. Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after 2024. If those three leave, Ohtani would be the Phillies’ clear No. 1 prospect as they work to build a full rotation.
If you, like so many others, were excited about the top half of the Padres lineup – Fernando Tatis Jr. – in early 2023! Manny Machado! Juan Soto! Xander Bogaerts! Oh my! – You may need to take a seat before thinking about adding Ohtani to the mix. That assumes San Diego sticks with Soto through 2024 (if not beyond), which may not be the case. Does Padres ownership have the financial backing and courage to sign both Ohtani and Soto long-term? If not, what if the Padres trade Soto and sign Ohtani this winter? They would have increased output and strengthened their farm system, but not significantly improved their 2024 lineup. Who knows. Maybe that would work. Their squad appeared to be far better than their record in 2023.
On the pitching side, the Padres now have a clear rotation need — Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Rich Hill are all free agents — and Ohtani won’t be available to start next season. While the long-term outlook would be fine with Ohtani, Yu Darvish (under contract through 2028), Joe Musgrove (under contract through 2027) and some notable starting candidates reaching the upper levels of the minors, the immediate future needs to be addressed .
After narrowly falling short to Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and the Giants could desperately use a free agent splash. They fell to 17th in average attendance in 2023, five places lower than in any season since Oracle Park (née Pacific Bell Park) opened in 2000. Zaidi even spoke of the importance of Acquiring top talent by hiring manager Bob Melvin outside of San Diego – The Giants wanted a captain who could appeal to free agents. Logan Webb is the Giants’ only player under contract past 2025, so there’s plenty of payroll flexibility in the long run. Next season, the Giants are hoping for healthy seasons from Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Adding Ohtani to this lineup could certainly solve their problems with an anonymous offense that ranked 24th in runs scored last season and, yes, it bears repeating, hasn’t scored 30 since Barry Bonds in 2004. homer hitter had more. From a pitching perspective: Ohtani could form a cornerstone of the rotation and give the Giants some stability for years to come with Webb and heralded left-handed prospect Kyle Harrison. Despite the Giants’ struggles in 2023, this club is doing a lot of things well. Adding a real star is the step they need to take.
The addition of Ohtani would certainly satisfy a clubhouse and fan base angered by Jerry Dipoto’s “54 percent” comments at the end of a season in which the Mariners narrowly missed the playoffs. With Teoscar Hernández in free agency, Seattle could use another legitimate hitter. The Mariners played mixed-and-matched at DH for most of last season, resulting in a combined bWAR of minus-0.8. Their .688 OPS from their DHs in 2023 was the worst among the teams on this list. Adding Ohtani could also give the Mariners more flexibility with their inventory of young pitchers — Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock and more — and perhaps allow them to trade for more positional talent. A rotation in 2025 could include Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray and Ohtani. With Ohtani at their side, he and Julio Rodríguez would be the faces of the franchise in Seattle for the rest of the decade and perhaps beyond.
The World Series champs will be even better next year. But they are at risk of losing Mitch Garver, their primary DH down the stretch, to free agency. Ohtani would provide an epic boost to a lineup that is tied for the AL lead in home runs, perhaps cleaning up behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Adolis García. From a pitching perspective, the Rangers could opt to add a starter this winter, but they could stand pat. Ohtani can finally replace Max Scherzer, whose contract expires after 2024. Ohtani would be a reinforcement for any team on this list, but putting him at the center of the Rangers’ rankings seems borderline unfair, regardless of what he will ultimately give them as a pitcher. But as much as money doesn’t seem to be an issue for owner Ray Davis, the Rangers are already committed to Seager through 2031, Semien through 2028 and Jacob deGrom through 2027 with a club option for 2028. Ohtani would essentially guarantee years of high luxury tax payments and the Rangers’ inability to retain some of their complementary talent long-term. So here’s an interesting question: Is the pursuit of a dynasty worth adding another veteran with a history of gun problems to that big money mix?
The Blue Jays haven’t tried to commit to their core of position players yet, so signing Ohtani appears to be Step 1 leading to Step 2 of extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. In the short term, the addition of Ohtani would give Toronto a formidable top-four lineup with George Springer, Bichette and Guerrero. It would mean real off days for Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen (a free agent after 2024) instead of DH days where they don’t catch. It would also likely discourage Guerrero from staying at DH for the second half of his career in the distant future. But that point would be moot if Guerrero doesn’t stay in Toronto.
Toronto’s Opening Day rotation in 2025 could be Ohtani, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Ricky Tiedemann. (And maybe we’ll know what to think of Alek Manoah by then.) We’ll say it again: impressive! Bassitt’s contract runs after 2025, Gausman’s after 2026 and Berrío’s after 2028. That still leaves a nice window in which the Blue Jays can boast one of the best rotations in the game.
(Top photo of Ohtani and Mookie Betts: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)