Despite climate warnings and the ever-faster expansion of renewable energies, the plans of fossil-producing countries continue to increase the production of coal, oil and natural gas in the coming decades. So much so that if these predictions come true, it will be impossible to comply with the Paris Agreement, which sets as its main objective that warming remains within the lowest possible catastrophic limits. The pact stipulates that temperature increases must remain between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels to avoid the most damaging effects of this crisis (at this point warming is already 1.2 degrees).
But a study presented this Wednesday – in which more than 80 researchers from several international institutes and the UN Environment Agency took part – warns that governments plan to produce more than twice as much fossil fuels in 2030 as they otherwise do would. This is compatible with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. Specifically, according to the analysis, the planned production is around 110% above what is needed to achieve the 1.5 target and over 69% for the two qualities.
The planet is in an exceptional situation. For example, this October was the warmest October in 173 years (reliable measurements begin in 1850). And scientists are clear that this is largely due to climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels. But as if the Titanic’s orchestra were completely shipwrecked, governments’ energy plans envisage further increasing global coal production by 2030; and for doing the same with oil and gas by 2050.
This is not only incompatible with the Paris Agreement, warns the report presented this Wednesday, but also completely contradicts the forecasts of some important institutions, such as the International Energy Agency, which assumes that global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak will be a decade, even without climate policy being tightened. In this context, the risk that many fossil fuel projects will fail increases for investors, the study warns.
The fossil fuel production gap report is produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, E3G, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). Part of the analysis of the plans of the energy ministries of 20 of the main fossil fuel producing countries. In alphabetical order, these are Germany, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Russian Federation, Norway, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United States of America. Qatar, the United Kingdom and South Africa. Together they account for around 80% of global fossil fuel production, explains Ploy Achakulwisut, lead author of the study and researcher at the Stockholm Environmental Institute.
Contradictions
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Fossil fuels are largely responsible for climate change because when they are burned to produce the energy that still powers the global economy, they emit greenhouse gases that overheat the planet. International climate change agreements, like the one signed in Paris in 2015, focus on forcing countries to commit to reducing emissions. But at the moment the problem is not addressed at the root: they are not enforcing commitments to reduce fossil fuel production.
This leads to blatant contradictions. The majority of the twenty countries analyzed for this study – 17 of the 20 – have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century. However, “no one has committed to reducing coal, oil and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees,” the report points out. The researchers also warn that the majority of nations analyzed continue to provide “financial support for fossil fuel production.” “There is an urgent need for governments to adopt short- and long-term reduction targets in fossil fuel production and use to complement other targets to mitigate climate change and reduce stranded asset risks,” the analysis said.
In recent years, there have been increasing calls among activists to set fossil fuel reduction targets in climate agreements. Furthermore, and adding to this in some countries, pressure has grown to explicitly mention in these agreements the need to reduce or eliminate the use of all fossil fuels. This will be one of the battles of the next climate summit, COP28, which begins in Dubai at the end of the month. However, many activists are wary of what could happen at this meeting. The United Arab Emirates is one of the 20 producing countries analyzed in the report presented this Wednesday. And government support for the fossil fuel sector is more than obvious in this case. Adnoc is the state-owned company that exploits the oil fields of the United Arab Emirates. Although the country has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by the middle of this century and is pursuing policies to expand renewable energy, the company’s plans for this decade include further increases in oil and gas production.
Adnoc refinery in Al Ruwais, United Arab Emirates. Christophe Viseux (Bloomberg)
This is the fourth edition of the Fossil Fuel Gap Report. The first is from 2019 and, according to Achakulwisut, the global gap between fossil fuel production forecasts and what is needed to comply with the Paris Agreement has “remained virtually unchanged” over these four years. This is despite “encouraging signs of a clean energy transition.” “The persistence of the global production gap endangers a well-managed and fair energy transition,” warns this researcher.
The report’s conclusions note that countries should “aim for near-total elimination of coal production and use by 2040”; and “a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by at least three-quarters by 2050 compared to 2020 levels.” All of this if we want to comply with the Paris Agreement. The researchers also close the door on the massive deployment of carbon capture and storage techniques, the solution the industry often opts for. However, the analysis rejects that it is a plausible large-scale pathway “given the risks and uncertainties of carbon capture and storage.”
The warmest October ever
The year 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record. In fact, that’s what happened this October, which, according to the European Commission-dependent climate service Copernicus, was the warmest October on the planet since reliable records began (1850). And it’s been that way for a long time. The previous record was from 2019, when the average October temperature was 14.9 degrees. This month, that record was surpassed by 0.4 degrees, reaching 15.3.
In addition, Copernicus highlights that the global average temperature so far this year (between January and October) is the highest on record, 1.43 degrees above the pre-industrial era average and 0.10 degrees above the corresponding period of 2016, The warmest year recorded to date and is expected to be replaced by 2023.
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