Fantasy Football Rankings Week 10 Sleepers Predictions Starts Seats

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 10: Sleepers, Predictions, Starts, Seats | David Montgomery, Sam Howell and more – The Athletic

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Kyler Murray is back, Keaton Mitchell is wowing people, and Joshua Dobbs has done the unthinkable. It’s been an interesting past week and a fascinating week 10 lies ahead.

The Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings include the game previews, sleepers and more…plus this week’s Fun with Rankings – the best video game soundtracks of all time. You know a song just came to mind while you were reading – Mario or Zelda, which was it?

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Week 10 Waivers | SOS Ranks Week 10 (TH)
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WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW

**BYE: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI**

NOTE: You’ll see quite a bit of “Since Week 4 or 5” and that’s because it’s good to look at current performance compared to year-long performance with defense, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things. For example, the Broncos were clearly the worst defense to start with, but as of Week 4, they’ve been in the middle of the pack – not great, but much better than where they started.

Acronyms you should know

  • RBTouch% – RB Touch Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total RB touches this player had
  • TmTGT% – Team Goals Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total goals going to this player
  • G2G and GL – Goal-to-Go (within the 10-yard line) and Goal-Line (within the 5-yard line)
  • TmTGT% – Percentage of the team’s total goals for the player
  • TmAirYD% – Team Air Yards Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total air yards that go to this player
  • CPOE – Completion Percentage Above Expectation – Completion Percentage Allowed Considering Passage Difficulty (Depth, Coverage, etc.)
  • Stuff% – A run that is not intended for a touchdown, 4+ yards on first down, or 3+ yards on any other down
  • Explosive Run – Any rush longer than 15 meters
  • YPRR – Yards per Route Run – pretty valuable indicator

Panthers at Bears, TNF

  • The Bears are the only team not to allow a rushing touchdown since Week 4 (six games – DEN, WSH, MIN, LV, LAC, NO). They also allow a league-low 3.0 YPC with the highest Stuff% and the harshest RushEPA.
  • The Panthers have the cheapest RushEPA allowed, but are the fourth toughest against slot receivers.
  • Assuming Khalil Herbert returns, I would use Herbert and D’Onta Foreman as a risk/reward RB2/3. If Herbert doesn’t do that, Foreman is a rock-solid top-15 option.

Colts at Patriots, 9:30 a.m., Germany

  • The Patriots and Chargers have the lowest missed tackle rate at 0.09 per attempt (since Week 4).
  • If Josh Downs is out, I wouldn’t risk Alec Pierce or Isaiah McKenzie in most leagues. Maybe you’re praying for a touchdown with Pierce. If Downs plays, he’ll be back to WR3 status.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson doesn’t have a single game with more than 12 points without a touchdown. The Colts have allowed a running back to score in six of nine games.

Texans at Bengals, 1 p.m

  • Since Week 4, the Bengals have forced 20.8% of drives to end in turnovers league-wide (TEN, ARI, SEA, SF, BUF) – the Jaguars are second (19.7%) and the Cardinals are last (4.5%).
  • Back to Week 5: No quarterback has a higher Comp% (75.8) or passer rating (111.2) than Joe Burrow, with Patrick Mahomes second in Comp% (71.7) and Justin Fields second in PsRTG (106.8).
  • As of Week 5, Joe Burrow is also third in FPPG and Ja’Marr Chase is second only to Tyreek Hill.
  • Since Week 6 with the split and the absence of Dameon Pierce last week, Pierce and Devin Singletary are last (43rd) and second to last in YD/Touch with 3.2 and 3.3, respectively.

Saints at Vikings, 1 p.m

  • Since returning, Alvin Kamara is seventh in FPPG, first in TmTGT% (22.0), targets (49), receptions (43) and receiving yards (272). The targets, receptions and yards would rank T-21, fifth and 47th for all players.
  • Travis Etienne is the only running back to post a game-high 13.5 points against the Saints, and Derrick Henry and Zack Moss are the only other two to have double-digit points against them.
  • As mentioned on the waivers, Trishton Jackson could be a surprise as he filled in at No. 2 when KJ Osborn left the game. Brandon Powell could also show up, as the secondary and slot options have slammed against the Saints and Marshon Lattimore is likely to focus heavily on Jordan Addison.

Packers at Steelers, 1 p.m

  • The Steelers haven’t allowed an end zone target for a touchdown since Week 4 (0 of 7).
  • Since Week 3, the Steelers, Giants and Chargers have failed to reach the game over (six games of PIT and LAC, seven games of NYG).
  • Since Week 3, Jordan Love leads the league in unrealized air yards (air yards attempted minus passing yards) with 537. Note: This is not a good statistic.
  • Even with touchdowns in two of his last three games, Najee Harris is still RB18 in FPPG and hasn’t scored more than 15 points since Week 17 last year.

Titans at Buccaneers, 1 p.m

  • The Titans are tied with the Ravens for the fewest touchdowns allowed since Week 4 – five games (CIN, IND, BAL, ATL, PIT), six for the Ravens and the eighth-fewest receiving YPG.
  • Only the Ravens allow a lower percentage of G2G drives that end in a touchdown (42.9% TB – 13 drives and 40.0% for BAL – 20 drives).
  • The Buccaneers have been pressured by slot receivers and rank only behind the Falcons in favorable EPA, meaning Kyle Phillips is making a good Hail Mary play without Treylon Burks.

49ers at Jaguars, 1 p.m

  • The Jaguars were a deviously good defense and ranked fourth-best in rush and pass DVOA, even though they allowed opponents the fastest pace of play and the most passes per game.
  • When Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are on the field, George Kittle has just 19.6 TmTGT% versus 26.1% when only Samuel is out.
  • Now common reminder: When Zay Jones plays, the pecking order and fantasy value is: Calvin Ridley, Jones, then Christian Kirk. If Jones is out, it’s Kirk first and then Ridley.

Browns at Ravens, 1 p.m

  • The Browns allowed one wideout touchdown – George Pickens – in the first five games and was also the only one to rush for more than 76 yards. They allowed two wideout touchdowns and 81-plus receiving yards to three players in Weeks 7 and 8 (Colts and Seahawks) before finishing…Clayton Tune.
  • The Browns allowed all G2G drives to convert into touchdowns, but allowed the second-fewest G2G drives (eight – the Titans allowed six).
  • Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman rank first and second among wideouts in OffTGT% of targets (wideouts with at least 20 targets).
  • Since Week 4, the Ravens have allowed just 0.96 points per drive – the next lowest is the Jaguars at 1.33 – the Cardinals’ league-high is 2.52.

Falcons at Cardinals, 4 p.m

  • Only Brian Hoyer (21.4) and PJ Walker (18.6) have a higher OffTGT% than Taylor Heinicke (16.9).
  • Desmond Ridder targets tight ends more than anyone else (36.3%), followed by Joshua Dobbs (32.4%), while Heinicke only hit 22.0%.
  • Since Week 4, the Cardinals are allowing the most catchable passes (82.0%), while the Buccaneers (81.6%), Broncos (81.4%) and Bears (81.3%) are the only other teams over 80% lie.

Lions at Chargers, 4 p.m

  • The Lions have the second-fewest run plays allowed per game (20.5 – the Eagles have the lowest at 17.8).
  • Since David Montgomery’s injury, Jahmyr Gibbs leads the league in YD/Touch with 6.2 (min. 20 rushes, 50 touches). Montgomery was at 4.5 in Week 5, 23rd, still trailing Gibbs at 4.7.
  • David Montgomery is back at the helm, and even though the volume is lower than before, he still has a huge touchdown lead with eight GL attempts and six touchdowns before getting hurt.

Giants at Cowboys, 4 p.m

  • Only Mitchell Trubisky (31.3) has targeted running backs more often than Tommy DeVito (29.6%). Brett Rypien (10.5) and CJ Stroud (11.5, tied with Matthew Stafford) are the two lowest.
  • Of running backs with more than 5 GL rush attempts, Tony Pollard has the fifth-lowest touchdown success rate (20.0% on 2-for-10). Alexander Mattison is 0 of 7 and AJ Dillon/Alvin Kamara/Dameon Pierce have all converted 1 of 8.
  • The Giants have the second-lowest CPOE allowed since Week 4 (-5.2%), behind only the Ravens (-5.7%).

Commanders at Seahawks, 4 p.m

  • Antonio Gibson leads the league with just 3.8% of his rushes for 0 yards or negative yards (minimum 25 attempts). Second is De’Von Achane (5.3%), worst is Keaontay Ingram with 42.4%, followed by Jerome Ford with 29.0%.
  • The Commanders (and Eagles) have had 13 end zone targets since Week 4 and have had eight of them converted for touchdowns.
  • Since Week 5, Sam Howell leads the league with 302.0 pass YPG, ahead of Patrick Mahomes with 287.2.
  • The Seahawks haven’t had a quarterback throw for more than 250 yards since Week 3 (Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Joshua Dobbs, PJ Walker, Lamar Jackson – not a killer line).

Jets at Raiders, SNF

  • The Jets have allowed just 0.98 YPRR since Week 5, with the Ravens having the second-lowest at 1.17.
  • The Jets also only allowed three end zone targets and shut down all three.
  • Jakobi Meyers had the better week 9 – thank you, fast touchdown! – but Aidan O’Connell continued to bet Davante Adams the most with 29.2 TmTGT%. Unfortunately, he gets Sauce Gardner and the Jets this week.

Broncos at Bills, MNF

  • The Bills are just behind the Bears in Stuff% (50.0 to 50.3) since Week 4, but have allowed the 10th-most WR FPPG (MIA, JAX, NYG, NE, TB, CIN).
  • The Bills also have the cheapest PassEPA since Week 4, ahead of the Commanders and Cardinals. Jaguars are the toughest.
  • The Bills ran threes just 47.9% of the time in Week 6 (second-worst), but increased to 86.2% (fourth-highest) since Dawson Knox was injured (three games).

WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleeper (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style – Woo-oo is worthy of risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is when you need a Hail Mary). You will not 100% imitate my ranking. This is about aiming for the upside and it often comes with a higher level of risk – to put it simply, they are upside plays that you might consider over a firm bottom option.

Woo-oo worthy

  • QB: Baker Mayfield, TB
  • RB: Brian Robinson, WSH; James Conner, ARI
  • WR: Jahan Dotson, WSH; Gabe Davis, BUF
  • TE: Dalton Schultz, HOU

Let’s get dangerous

  • QB: Taylor Heinicke, ATL
  • RB: Zach Charbonnet, SEA; Keaton Mitchell, B.A.L
  • WR: Quentin Johnston, LAC; Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG
  • TE: Trey McBride, ARI

WEEK 10: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

We’re moving on to a BEST/WORST playoff schedule outlook because we’re at the point where “buy lows” and “sell highs” are hard to find due to manager knowledge and limited options.

Best playoff schedules

  • QB: Kyler Murray, ARI; Josh Allen, BUF
  • RB: Bijan Robinson, ATL; Austin Ekeler, LAC; D’Andre Swift, PHI
  • WR: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, SEA; Marquise Brown/Michael Wilson, ARI; Garrett Wilson, NYJ

Worst playoff schedules

  • QB: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA; Trevor Lawrence, JAX; Sam Howell, W.S.H
  • RB: Saquon Barkley, NYG; Dameon Pierce/Devin Singletary, HOU; Joe Mixon, CIN
  • WR: Jaylen Waddle, MIA; Terry McLaurin/Jahan Dotson, WSH; Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, TB

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

After talking about the Disney songs last week, I’ve been wading through a bunch of video game songs, also with the intention of sending them to SiriusXM to get them out of breaks. So this week we have the best video game soundtracks of all time. This can be a little tricky because you could pit individual games against a series and break each one down into a series, so I treat series as a soundtrack. Originally I wanted to do just individual songs, and maybe I will in the future, but that would have been 90% DuckTales, Mega Man, Mario and Zelda.

Best video game soundtracks

ALL-TIME CHAMPION: DuckTales – You knew this would be here. The only thing that competes with the official theme is the Moon Level theme. So, just like last week, let’s talk about the best video game soundtracks, all fighting for second best spot behind DuckTales.

  • Super Mario Bros. – You knew this would be #1. It doesn’t matter when you started playing video games or which system is your favorite, there’s nothing like it. Arguing with Pat Mayo about how SMB2 is a good game and generates way too much hate is actually what got me included on this list too, as the subject matter is really fun to listen to.
  • The Legend of Zelda – Could there be anything as memorable as Mario and DuckTales? Hell, they had a whole game where you had to play songs on an ocarina… that people made/companies sold so people could try it out in real life.
  • Mega Man – Especially Mega Man 2, which could have its own top 10 songs list. Dr. Wily Stage is one of the ten best individual songs of all time.
  • Mario Kart – Rainbow Road, Mario Circuit, Coconut Mall, Big Blue (honorable mention to F-Zero)…just so many great songs.
  • Super Smash Bros. – It’s kind of a cheat as it takes the best video game soundtracks and incorporates them into the themed levels, but hey, if you want almost everything here and more, you can’t beat it.
  • Donkey Kong Country – From the title theme to the groovy, drum-infused levels, lots of great songs.
  • Tony Hawk Pro Skater – especially THPS2. From Rage Against the Machine to Naughty by Nature to Mos Def to Bad Religion, this soundtrack was near perfect.
  • Wii – You know the Wii jams hard! Especially the Wii Sports theme song!
  • Sonic the Hedgehog – Green Hill Zone as iconic as the “music of drowning water”.
  • Halo – I can still hear the crescendo of this theme as you escape on the Warthog.
  • Uncharted – Lots of songs with an adventure exploration feel, but Nate’s theme is the best.
  • Pokemon – Red, Blue and Yellow theme song. Enough said.
  • Final Fantasy – One Winged Angel, anyone? This series could contain top 10 titles from all games.
  • Castlevania – Organ based awesomeness, and I’m leaning towards Super Castlevania IV with the Simon Belmont theme, but Bloody Tears is up there too.
  • Street Fighter – I particularly like Guile’s theme, but there are a lot of great options.
  • Metroid – Annoyed because the coolest “song” is the 7-8 second appearance by Samus?
  • Undertale – If you’ve experienced it, please do… but build up some patience beforehand because it’s also one of the more difficult games/boss fights of all time.
  • Crazy Taxi – “Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes!” Yes, it wasn’t full of hits, but no other song wanted to drive you as fast and crazy as “All I Want” by Offspring.
  • Chrono Trigger – Similar to Final Fantasy’s soundtracks, this is one of the best around.
  • Tetris – The title you are thinking of is A-Type Music, Korobeiniki.

    • Award: Portal – The cake is a lie, but Still Alive is not a great song.

    Editor’s note: The omissions of “Mighty Bomb Jack” and “Solomon’s Key” prove once again that Jake has a current bias… or a limited amount of video game knowledge.

    WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

    🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These may differ from my rankings and mine Ranks are the order in which I would start players outside of additional context, such as “Need the highest upside potential, even if it’s risky.” Also based on 4 point TDs for QB, 6 point break and half PPR

    Download link added on Thursday

    WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

    🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

    • Unfortunately, there is still no perfect widget. I know many see this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop etc if possible, or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, for scrolling to work properly .
    • ECR = “Expert” consensus ranking (which not everyone updates regularly, so use with caution).
    • Will be updated regularly. Please find out about the blocking of the lineups.

    (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)