4 hours ago
New Zealand’s inflation expectations fall to their lowest level in two years in the fourth quarter
New Zealand’s inflation forecast fell to a two-year low in the fourth quarter, according to a Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey.
The RBNZ’s two-year inflation expectations, considered roughly the timeframe over which the central bank’s monetary policy actions impact prices, fell to 2.76% in the year to September from 2.83% in the previous quarter.
Annual price increases for a year were expected to cool to 3.60% from 4.17% previously.
The one-year expectation for annual wage inflation was 4.43%, down from 5.04% in the third quarter, while the two-year expectation for annual wage inflation was 3.53%, down from 3.66% in the last quarter lay.
The survey shows that the central bank’s rate hike cycle has shown signs of easing price pressures. The RBNZ will hold its next policy meeting on November 29th.
—Shreyashi Sanyal
7 hours ago
Business sentiment in Japan is improving as the Portal Tankan survey shows an increase in November
Confidence among major Japanese manufacturers rose in November, according to the Portal Tankan survey, which measures business sentiment among major Japanese companies.
This is the first time the index has improved since August, while sentiment in the services sector rose for a second month.
The manufacturing sentiment index rose to +6 in November from +4 in October, and the services sector index was +27 over +24 last month.
The survey highlighted a patchy economic recovery and a difficult outlook for Japanese manufacturers.
It also reflected a similar improvement seen in the Bank of Japan’s closely watched quarterly Tankan survey.
A positive value means that the number of optimistic respondents is greater than that of pessimists and vice versa.
—Shreyashi Sanyal
6 hours ago
CNBC Pro: These are the stocks that will benefit — and lose — from the wellness trend, says Morgan Stanley
From food to beauty, a “global shift toward wellness” is taking place – not just among consumers but also among governments, says Morgan Stanley.
The Covid-19 pandemic is a major factor in the increasing focus on weight and its impact on health, the investment bank noted. However, she added that wellness goes beyond weight loss and also includes fitness, nutrition, appearance, sleep and mindfulness.
CNBC Pro takes a look at the stocks Morgan Stanley says will be affected – both positively and negatively.
Subscribers can read more here.
– Weizhen Tan
15 hours ago
CNBC Pro: “The gift that keeps on giving”: Morgan Stanley likes the storage sector and picks its top stocks
The tech theme is dominating this year and one segment in particular stands out to Morgan Stanley: the storage sector.
The investment bank calls it “the gift that keeps on giving,” noting that the sector’s “pricing power is now among the best in tech and is still in early recovery.”
The bank reveals its “top picks” and “preferred plays”.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
—Amala Balakrishner
19 hours ago
According to HSBC, a soft landing could lead to a 15% rise in global stocks
Global stocks should rise sharply in the new year if central banks begin easing monetary policy and the Federal Reserve manages a soft landing, HSBC said.
“We expect global equity markets to continue rising and are forecasting a 15% gain by the end of 2024,” Alastair Pinder said in a note to clients. “But against a backdrop of slowing economic growth and falling interest rates, we expect market breadth to narrow and much of the market to stall while U.S. dominance is likely to persist.”
In recent cases where the Fed has engineered a soft landing, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 22% between the pause in rate hikes and six months after the bank began cutting rates, he noted.
Given this scenario, Pinder favors the technology and consumer discretionary sectors and believes risks appear better valued after the recent decline in stocks.
—Samantha Subin
17 hours ago
Fed Chairman Goolsbee says the “golden path” is still possible
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday that a soft landing was still possible as the central bank tries to combat inflation without significantly harming the economy.
“Because of the strangeness of this moment, there is a possibility that the golden path … has brought down inflation without a recession,” Goolsbee said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Goolsbee said the decline in price pressures could mark the fastest decline in inflation in the last century.
— Yun Li
12 hours ago
US crude oil falls below $78 a barrel, hitting its lowest level since July
U.S. crude oil prices fell nearly 4% to their lowest level since July as weak economic data masked fears that the war between Israel and Hamas could lead to a broader regional conflict.
West Texas Intermediate fell $3.09, or 3.82%, to $77.73 a barrel, while Brent fell $3.19, or 3.75%, to $81.99 a barrel, both at their lowest prices since July .
The decline came after China’s exports fell more than expected in October, signaling slowing global demand.
–Spencer Kimball
11 hours ago
According to Wolfe Research, the market recovery could be short-lived
Rob Ginsberg, a strategist at Wolfe Research, noted that the early November rally could soon stall if trading moves earlier in the year are any indication.
“Every rally since the July peak has stalled before reaching a new 1-month high, before moving to a new 1-month low… the definition of a downtrend,” Ginsberg said.
Of course, he also noted that some momentum indicators “were positive for all indices (last week), and today we see that confirmed at the stock level.”
—Fred Imbert