ESPN Staff Nov 10, 2023, 6:45am ET13 minutes read
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The halfway point of the 2023 NFL season is here. Nine weeks have passed (and a Week 10 game on Thursday night), nine to go. We saw a bit of everything in the first half, but even in mid-season it’s still very early. A lot can happen in the remaining two months of the regular season.
So we asked 18 of our NFL analysts for their best prediction for the rest of the season and how it will play out. Will we see shocking division winners, playoff teams and No. 1 seeds? Will offensive stars post big numbers in the final eight or nine games to make a statement about MVP candidacy? Could a team go winless the rest of the way? And could there be a drop in the long-standing record by the end of the season?
Let’s predict the second half of the season, starting with two predictions for the No. 1 seed.
Jump to:
#1 Seeds | Playoff race
Outstanding, Records | MVP hunt
Returns and retirements | Draft
Who will land the No. 1 seed?
The Jacksonville Jaguars will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC
Jacksonville is 6-2 and the offense hasn’t even peaked yet. The Jaguars have a balanced roster that poses problems for most teams, and the carnage of a crowded conference could result in several teams suffering five or six losses, opening the door for an AFC South contender to move to the top to slide. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Jacksonville has the 16th toughest schedule going forward, while the Bills, Bengals and Ravens all rank in the top five. – Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter
The Detroit Lions will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC
The 6-2 Lions surprisingly rank above the 8-1 Eagles in my DVOA ratings and have the fourth-easiest schedule going forward. In fact, they only have one game (in Dallas in Week 17) against teams currently in the top 10 in DVOA. Of course, winning the No. 1 seed doesn’t necessarily mean Detroit will reach its first Super Bowl, but the road to Las Vegas could very well lead through Ford Field. – Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst
How will the playoff races end?
The Houston Texans will clinch an AFC wild card spot
They have a tough time in Cincinnati this week, but the rest of the Texans’ schedule looks pretty easy. After Week 10, they will not play another road game until December 10th, and their remaining road games at that point are against the Jets, Titans and Colts. Their remaining home games are against the Cardinals, Jaguars, Broncos, Browns and Titans. It’s not hard to look at that and get the Texans – who are playing very well – to 10 wins. And if the Steelers and/or Browns fail, spots will open up for the surprising 4-4 DeMeco Ryans team. The Texans’ Christmas Eve game against Cleveland could have serious playoff implications. – Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter
The Pittsburgh Steelers will make it to the postseason
Her recipe for success wasn’t pretty, but it was effective. They are 5-3 and 2-0 in the division. The Steelers’ defense has a lead on 18% of opposing offenses, second best in the league, and limits opportunities in the red zone. And to think that Pittsburgh has the 17th easiest remaining strength, while the Bengals and Ravens face two of the five toughest. The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens and have two games remaining against the Bengals, so they are in the driver’s seat. – Anita Marks, fantasy/betting analyst
The Detroit Lions will win the NFC North for the first time since 1993
The 1993 team was led by coach Wayne Fontes, future Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders and wide receiver Herman Moore. And with the Bears and Packers recovering significantly and the Vikings without quarterback Kirk Cousins (torn Achilles tendon) for the rest of the season, the NFC North is ripe for the taking. The Lions are built well enough on both sides of the football to take advantage. – Eric Moody, fantasy/betting analyst
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The Los Angeles Chargers get hot and claim a shocking AFC West title
Even if the Chiefs are 7-2, this is doable for the 4-4 Chargers. I could see quarterback Justin Herbert leading a resurgent LA team and surprising the Chiefs with a decisive win on the final weekend of the regular season. And if he does that, he’ll end up in the MVP conversation. – Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst
The Cincinnati Bengals will fight their way to the AFC North title
Yes, Cincinnati is in last place in the AFC North heading into Week 10. But after wins over the 49ers and Bills, the 5-3 Bengals will continue to extend their four-game winning streak. Quarterback Joe Burrow – now healthy after battling a calf injury in the first few weeks – has a league-leading 76% completion rate since Week 5 and is tied for the top spot with 10 passing touchdowns during that span. Defensively, the Bengals are shutting down opponents behind coordinator Lou Anarumo, who has positioned his players to commit multiple turnovers in four straight games. And as we’ve seen in recent seasons, the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL after the midway point of the season. – Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter
Who will collect stats… and could a record fall?
DaRon Bland will finish with the most interceptions in the NFL
In eight games, the Cowboys cornerback already has four picks (three returns for touchdowns) and four pass breakups. Bland is currently tied for second in the interception rankings, trailing only Baltimore’s Geno Stone. With his coverage skills and closing speed, Bland will be able to provide high ball security in the second half of the season. And he’ll get those chances in Dallas, where the Cowboys play with a man coverage rate of 66.9%, the highest in the NFL. – Matt Bowen, NFL analyst
The Baltimore Ravens’ great defense will decline… a little
Through Week 9, the Ravens’ defense ranked first in expected points added (and second, particularly on passing plays), and they had allowed the fewest passing TDs (six) and the lowest yards per attempt (5.5). . Strength of schedule is an important factor here, as Baltimore faced CJ Stroud in his NFL debut, Joe Burrow, who wasn’t fully healthy in Week 2, Gardner Minshew, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill/ Malik Willis, Jared Goff, Joshua Dobbs and Geno Smith.
However, as of this weekend, the projected opposing QBs are Deshaun Watson, the now-healthy Burrow, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa and Pickett. That’s quite a change. Baltimore’s defense has enough talent to be one of the better units in the league. However, don’t be shocked if the stats and efficiency metrics aren’t as good in the second half of the season. – Mike Clay, Fantasy Analyst
Javonte Williams will eclipse 1,000 rushing yards
The Broncos running back only has 357 rushing yards on 90 carries, but Williams will end up with the best rushing performance of his career. In the first two years of his career, he gained 2.5 yards after contact and gained 10 yards on 13% of his carries. After suffering a right ACL injury, he struggled in the first month of the season, as he averaged 1.2 yards after contact and 8% of his runs traveled more than 10 yards in Weeks 1-4 . But in his last three games, Williams has gained 2.1 yards after contact and is gaining 10 or more yards on 14% of his carries this year. The data – and the tape – suggests Williams is getting back into form, which is likely to translate into massive gains. – Liz Loza, Fantasy Analyst
CJ Stroud wins Offensive Rookie of the Year
I know this may seem obvious if we’re in Week 10, but the Texans quarterback will not only be the unanimous OROY, he could even get some MVP votes. Stroud ranks third in the NFL in passing yards per game (283.8) and has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (14-1) in the league. Submit your OROY ballot now. Up for grabs is the No. 2 overall award. – Matt Miller, NFL Draft analyst
At least one player will break the single-season sack record
Leaguewide, 6.8% of dropbacks result in sacks, the highest rate in over 20 years. And this happens while we have three true superstar pass rushers in their prime, all real candidates to break the sack record: Cleveland’s Myles Garrett (9.5 sacks), Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt (9.5) and Dallas’ Micah Parsons (7.5). Plus, someone like Maxx Crosby (9.5) from Las Vegas or Haason Reddick (7.5) from Philadelphia might even have a chance to surpass the record of 22.5 set by Michael Strahan in 2001 and tied by Watt in 2021 became. Parsons and Garrett are on pace for the highest and seventh-highest pass-rush win rate seasons, respectively, in the metric’s history (since 2017). – Seth Walder, analytics writer
Which stars will be in the MVP race?
CJ Stroud will enter the MVP conversation
Miller mentioned Stroud as the eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year, but I’ll take it a step further. Stroud will participate in the MVP discussion. Consider that the rookie beat a Texas team that went 3-13-1 last season to 4-4 midseason. Additionally, Stroud ranks seventh in passing yards (2,270), third in yards per attempt (8.1), seventh in TD throws (14) and twelfth in total QBR (62 ,2). And he only threw one interception. – Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst
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Patrick Mahomes will win MVP for the second year in a row – and third time overall
This is a much bolder decision than would have been the case at the start of the season. At 7-2, the Chiefs are tied with the Ravens for the best record in the AFC, and Mahomes is third in the league with 2,442 passing yards, third in total QBR with 73.0 and fourth with 17 touchdown passes. But he had to overcome the Chiefs’ shaky pass-catching group, which dropped more passes (21) than any other team. No matter – look for Mahomes to make everything work for the Chiefs on the road to more hardware. – Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer
Joe Burrow will do everything he can to win MVP
Burrow was red-hot and looked like the quarterback we’ve seen in recent seasons, rather than the one so clearly hampered by a calf injury in the first month of the season. After completing eight carries for a total of 3 yards in the first four games, the Bengals signal-caller now has 19 carries for 58 yards in his last four games, underscoring that his agility in and out of the pocket is back on track He has to be at the same level for him to lead the Bengals to a possible division title. – Field Yates, NFL analyst
What can we expect from two experienced QBs?
Aaron Rodgers will make a late return this season
Rodgers will return from his torn Achilles tendon to take over as the Jets’ manager. The star quarterback is going through his rehab at an unprecedented pace and things are going smoothly. What works in his favor is the fact that he is not exposed to the same physical and explosive demands as a wide receiver, defensive back or running back; However, he needs to be mobile enough to protect himself and strong enough to get the ball offside, which is easier given the left leg injury. The Jets will do their part by staying in the playoff hunt long enough to make his return worthwhile. – Stephania Bell, fantasy author/injury specialist
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These will be the final games of Matthew Stafford’s career
To be clear: I have no inside information. But I watched how ready and optimistic Stafford was during the Rams’ training camp, and while that season was notoriously rebuilding, it was brutal. It’s the second straight season he’s been beaten up every week, taking 7.5% of his dropbacks since the start of 2022. Over the course of his career, he has amassed around $300 million. He won a Super Bowl. And he has numbers that will be worth serious consideration by the canton. Taking all of this into account, I expect Stafford to end his career after the season. – Seth Wickersham, NFL writer
Will we see a surprise team at No. 1 in the 2024 draft?
The New York Giants will go winless the rest of the season and be the No. 1 seed in 2024
Quarterback Daniel Jones is already out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL in his right knee, and the entire Giants team is in turmoil with questions under center and numerous injuries. At 2-7, that’s a complete 180 for a team that won a playoff game last season. According to ESPN’s FPI, the Giants have the eighth-best remaining strength on the schedule and the third-best chance of landing the No. 1 overall selection in April’s draft (25.5%), meaning they could overtake the Cardinals and Bears. And that’s especially true when they lose and are 2-15. – Jordan Reid, NFL Draft analyst