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Seasonal offers from the Copernicus Multisystem
Let’s analyze the Copernicus multisystem model for winter to get some general ideas about the type of hemispheric circulation that awaits us next winter. The latest calculations show a first part that is more zonal than the second, which would instead be characterized by blocking anticyclones between the North Atlantic and Greenland. This type of trend is similar to years dominated by a moderately strong El Nino like the current one and a positive AMO. The first, more zonal part is also related to the positive dipole in the Indian Ocean and the presence of El Nino.
Statistically speaking, winter would also be subject to stratwarming, modulated by the eastern El Nino/QBo pair, increasing the possibility of sudden warming events in the polar stratosphere. Currently, the stratosphere appears to be stronger than climatology with the first strato-tropospheric couplings. The average winds at 10 hPa weaken throughout the month of January, when some members show a reversal typical of polar anticyclones
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