Published November 15, 2023 at 10:52 p.m.
Depending on the model, the transition to winter could be quite difficult. Forecast.
In summary:
low that lasts until early December;
Colder temperatures during this sequence;
Tends to become milder later in December.
Unruly hollow
So far November has been under the influence of a low. This trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks. In fact, temperatures across Quebec were below normal: up to 3 degrees in places. Despite some minor milder spells in the coming days, the same atmospheric conditions are expected to prevail until early December.
“The turnaround since the end of October has taken us away from the path of mildness and even heat that we experienced in the autumn,” says meteorologist Réjean Ouimet. Currently, autumn 2023 continues to be one of the mildest in Montreal in 83 years, among other places. Except that the recent shift toward freshness could catapult us out of the record books. »
Winter of misery
During this thirty-day sequence, normal temperatures gradually drop below freezing. The second third of the period promises to be well below the seasonal average. However, there should be a trend reversal. The path of the jet stream would create a more zonal flow, allowing mild air from the Pacific to circulate from west to east. Therefore, above-average temperatures are to be expected. Remember that the mercury temperature should normally remain below 0°C in southern Quebec after the first week of December.
“At this time of year the temperatures start to become more wintery,” explains Réjean Ouimet. Temperatures below 0°C and the first onset of winter (-5°C to -15°C) are just around the corner. This year’s cold is not so dense and structured that it would suddenly plunge us into winter. So winter is struggling a bit at the moment. »
Late season
Paradoxically, despite a rather cool month of November, it would be difficult to enter winter in Quebec. Persistent cold, heavy precipitation and snow on the ground characterize the winter season that has begun. Depending on the region, this threshold is reached in November or December. Patience is required in 2023. Some will be pleased to know that maximum temperatures below 0°C are slow to last. For others, especially ski resorts, the start will be more difficult.
“According to the models, the month of December indicates a paradigm shift and a return of the Pacific current,” explains Réjean Ouimet. That would mean that we would be in an atmosphere protected against really stubborn and early cold. »
In collaboration with meteorologists Patrick Duplessis and Réjean Ouimet.