With three weeks left, I no longer have a shot at the CFP, but I’m desperately trying to get to a better bowl. Right now I’m at .500 and probably playing on a Thursday afternoon before Christmas. I need a strong finish to the season to at least make it to the PopTarts Bowl.
Last week: 5-6 against the spread.
Season: 60-59-2.
(All points spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kick-off times Easter and Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
No. 3 Michigan (-19.5) at Maryland, Noon (Fox)
At this point, Michigan might be better off if Jim Harbaugh stays suspended so the Wolverines can come out and play furiously again. Not that they need any additional help in this case. The 6-4 Terps defense is so bad that it gave up 51 points to the same Penn State team that could barely complete a pass against Ohio State and Michigan.
Michigan 52, Maryland 14
The selection: Michigan -19.5
No. 10 Louisville at Miami (-1), Noon (ABC)
Miami lost freshman QB Emory Williams to a season-ending injury. We’ll see how veteran Tyler Van Dyke responds after sitting on the bench for a week. Louisville had a great season, but strangely managed to play only three true road games – two narrow wins and a puzzling loss at 2-8 Pitt. I see the 9-1 Cardinals stumbling here.
Miami 23, Louisville 20
The selection: Miami -1
No. 22 Utah at No. 17 Arizona (-1), 2:30 p.m., (Pac-12 Network)
For the first half of the season, it looked like this was going to be another classic Utah defense, but Oregon came to Salt Lake and crushed the Utes, and Washington did what it wanted last week (at least in the first half). Arizona QB Noah Fifita was sensational in home wins over Oregon State and UCLA. He and his receivers can cause damage.
Arizona 27, Utah 24
The selection: Arizona -1
No. 1 Georgia (-10.5) at No. 18 Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Vols are still in the top 20, but their best win came against…Kentucky? Texas A&M? They haven’t done much to prove they can compete with the No. 1 team in the country. Their best hope is that Georgia stays out of the Top 25 after back-to-back home wins, but even if that were the case, Tennessee might not have the offense needed to take advantage.
Georgia 27, Tennessee 10
The selection: Georgia -10.5
No. 20 North Carolina at Clemson (-7), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Clemson’s long-struggling offense has definitely gained more confidence in recent weeks, with the Tigers’ 31-23 loss to Notre Dame and 42-21 loss to Georgia Tech. Clemson relied more on speedy RB Phil Mafah and made a big impact. But I expect Drake Maye and the Tar Heels to be there until the end.
Clemson 31, North Carolina 27
The selection: North Carolina +7
UNLV at Air Force (-3), 3:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
It’s a battle for first place in the MWC between two teams that are 8-2. Since their 8-0 start, the Falcons have suffered lopsided losses to 4-6 Army and 4-7 Hawaii, while the Rebels have beaten New Mexico 56-14 and Wyoming 34-14 in the last two weeks. Air Force’s fifth-ranked defense could slow UNLV’s hot offense, but I still like the Rebels.
UNLV 24, Air Force 20
The selection: UNLV +3
No. 21 Kansas State (-8.5) at No. 25 Kansas, 7 p.m. (FS1)
Two weeks before beating Oklahoma, the Jayhawks suffered a 16-13 home loss to mediocre Texas Tech last week in which QB Jason Bean was injured early on. He is expected to return this week. But K-State plays at a higher level and its only setback in its last five games came in overtime at Texas. The ‘Cats should be able to handle their rivals.
Kansas State 34, Kansas 24
The selection: Kansas State -8.5
Florida at No. 9 Missouri (-11.5), 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
The Tigers are finally getting the respect they deserve after giving Georgia a scare in Athens and beating Tennessee the following week. Now QB Brady Cook, RB Cody Schrader and WR Luther Burden face a Florida defense that just allowed LSU a program-record 701 yards and is hot on its heels as the Gators turn around and play another prime-time SEC road game must.
Missouri 42, Florida 24
The selection: Missouri -11.5
No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Never before have five Power 5 teams made it 10-0. This list will be reduced by one this week. Michael Penix and Co. continue to be strong on offense, but their defense ranks 102nd nationally in opposing third-down conversions (42.2 percent). RB Damien Martinez and the Beavers are well positioned to take advantage in front of a loaded Reser Stadium.
Oregon State 34, Washington 28
The selection: Oregon State -2.5
No. 7 Texas (-7.5) at Iowa State, 8 p.m. (Fox)
Why stop the surprises there? Much like Washington, Texas has been playing with fire lately, nearly blowing three 20-point leads in four weeks. The 6-4 Cylones have already significantly exceeded expectations considering they suffered heavy roster losses in the preseason due to the nationwide gambling scandal, and a top-10 upset at home would be icing on the cake.
Iowa State 22, Texas 20
The selection: Iowa State +7.5
Mandel’s Upset Special
Duke (-4) at Virginia, 3 p.m. (The CW)
You can’t tell from their 2-8 record, but the Cavaliers have gotten better since their 0-5 start. They won at North Carolina, took Miami to overtime and led in the fourth quarter last week against No. 10 Louisville — all on the road. Now they’re back home, putting Duke in a good position after suffering a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to rival UNC.
Virginia 23, Duke 20
The selection: Virginia +4
(Top photo: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)