Fantasy Football Rankings Week 11 Sleepers Predictions Starts Seats

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 11: Sleepers, Predictions, Starts, Seats | Jaylen Warren, Jalen Guyton and more – The Athletic

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After great performances from Ty Chandler, Devin Singletary and Noah Brown, as well as the return of Kyler Murray, there are some changes in the Week 11 rankings, including the Steelers’ new “lead” running back, Jaylen Warren… or is he? Get your Week 11 fantasy football rankings, game previews, sleepers and more as you set your lineups here.

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WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW

**BYES: ATL, IND, NE, NO**

Acronyms you should know

  • RBTouch% – RB Touch Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total RB touches this player had
  • TmTGT% – Team Goals Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total goals going to this player
  • G2G and GL – Goal-to-Go (within the 10-yard line) and Goal-Line (within the 5-yard line)
  • TmAirYD% – Team Air Yards Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total air yards that go to this player
  • CPOE – Completion Percentage Above Expectation – Completion Percentage Allowed Considering Passage Difficulty (Depth, Coverage, etc.)
  • Stuff% – A run that is not intended for a touchdown, i.e. 4+ yards on first down or 3+ yards on any other down
  • Explosive Run – Any rush longer than 15 meters
  • YPRR – Yards per Route Run – pretty valuable indicator

NOTE: ALL of the statistics are SINCE WEEK 5 – Unless known. This is because it makes sense to compare current performance to that throughout the year in terms of defense, etc., as things can change with in-season adjustments. For example, the Broncos were the worst defense to begin with, but since Week 5 they have been in the top 10 (difficult).

Bengals at Ravens, TNF

  • When T-shirt Higgins missed week 5, Yes’Marr Chase dominated the targets with 43.2 TmTGT% and achieved 19-15-192-3, and Trenton Irwin was second with 10-8-60-0, ahead of him Tyler Boyd at 7-6-39-0. Last week, Boyd led with 30.8 TmTGT% while Chase was 6-5-124-1 and Irwin was 4-2-54-1. I would expect more from last week against the Ravens as they were more vulnerable to the slot than outside receivers.
  • Joe Burrow had a Comp%, 69.1 pass rating, 1.3% TD/ATT and 7.9 FPPG through Week 5 and since then 74.1%, 107.0, 6.1% and 21.4 – all top 5.
  • Lamar Jackson is in the middle of the pack in OFFTGT% (11.6), but Odell Beckham (25.7%) and Rashod Bateman (24.1%) rank first or T-4 with the highest percentage of targets that are OFFTGT this year (at least 20 targets).

Steelers at Browns, 1 p.m

  • The Browns and Steelers allow the two lowest Comp% to opposing QBs (56.9 and 57.9, respectively).
  • Deshaun Watson ranks 32nd (58.0%) and Kenny Pickett 25th (61.9%) among 37 QBs with 50+ attempts.
  • Until week 9, Najee Harris had 56.9 RBTouch%, 8.5 FPPG and 4.2 YPT Jaylen Warren had 42.1%, 8.5 FPPG, 5.6. In Week 10, when Warren was reportedly told he would be the “starter,” Harris had 52.8 RBTouch%, 17.1 points and 5.1 YPT versus 47.2%, 18.0 and 6.5 for Warren, who is also third in forced missed tackles per rush (0.46), while Harris is T-31 (0.22) among RBs with at least 25 attempts.
  • Harris has scored a rushing touchdown in three of the last four games, and the Browns have actually given up seven rushing touchdowns, followed by the Colts/Giants/Panthers with nine.
  • The Browns also allow the most YPR at 13.0, tied with the Bengals. The Jets allow the lowest at 9.0, tied with the Bears.

Bears at Lions, 1 p.m

  • The Bears have the highest rush % (50.6), with the Browns close behind (50.4).
  • The Bears only come under quarterback pressure 27.5% of the time, with the Patriots second-lowest at 28.3%, but they continue to have the highest defensive run percentage and haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 3.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has the lowest percentage of rushes that go for zero or negative yards at 9.8% Aaron Jones Second with 10.4%.
  • Khalil Herbert has 5.3 YPC and 5.8 YPT D’Onta Foreman’s 4.3 and 4.4, but Foreman has three rushing touchdowns to zero for Herbert and more FPPG (11.8 to 9.3). I would expect these two to part ways in Herbert’s first game back.

Chargers at Packers, 1 p.m

  • Against the Chargers, opposing quarterbacks have the highest comp% in the league at 70.2%, with the Texans ranking second at 69.5%.
  • Jordan love has a Comp% of 60.7, which is T-30 out of 37 QBs with at least 50 attempts.
  • In Jalen Guytons In the second game he ran the same number of routes as Quentin Johnston and had six goals to Johnston’s four, plus Guyton spent time in the slot and outfield while Johnston was 90% in the outfield. If things continue like this, Guyton might find a little more value than Johnston.
  • Christian Watson leads the Packers in TmTGT% (22.3) when he is on the field, but that only adds up to 33-14-236-1 compared to 27-16-143-3 for Romeo Doubs and 14-11-156-2 for Jayden Reed.

Raiders at Dolphins, 1 p.m

  • The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on 7.0% of their drives, best in the league – next are the 49ers (6.4%) and Cowboys (6.2%).
  • The Dolphins offensive line continues to dominate with a quarterback pressure rate of 21.0%, the best in the league, with the Patriots second best at 27.4%.
  • Surprisingly, the Dolphins have the longest average range on third downs (for a first down) at 9.2 yards, followed by the Cardinals at 8.5 yards – they’re still 19th in 3DConv% (37.9), while the Giants and Jets performed worst (26.3% and 23.9%).
  • For the season, Davante Adams is one of 15 wideouts with more than 20.0% of his targets falling off target (20.4), and the rate increases to 27.3% Aidan O’Connell, which would be the highest in the league. O’Connell also has the highest INT+FUM percentage per game (6.4% for the year), tied for second PJ Walker — Tyson Bagent is next at 5.4%.

Giants at Commanders, 1 p.m

  • The Giants are allowing a quarterback pressure rate of 45.1% – worst in the league – while the Titans are at 44.9%.
  • They also have the highest 3-and-out percentage (52.0), followed by the Patriots at 43.1.
  • The Commanders rush the least at 28.2%, and the Bengals are second at 34.3%.
  • Saquon Barkley leads in rushes per game (22.0), followed by Josh Jacobs on July 20th
  • Jahan Dotson goes from 12.4 TGT% to 17.6% if Curtis Samuel is off the field, including 3.6 to 6.5 TD/TGT% and 8.7 to 12.8 YD/REC. When Samuel plays, Dotson is John Cena.

Cowboys at Panthers, 1 p.m

  • The Cowboys are the only team to overhit four times (five games) in this game.
  • Dak Prescott has the highest TD/ATT% at 7.9, followed by Brock Purdy at 7.2%.
  • With another 0-fer on GL touchdown rushes (0-for-3 in Week 10) Tony Pollard is the only running back with more than 7 attempts and zero touchdowns since Week 2.
  • Back to OffTGT%, Jonathan Mingo is at 24.4%, making it just 23-220-0 from 45 goals, despite hitting over 95.0% and scoring 19 goals in the last four games.

Titans at Jaguars, 1 p.m

  • Travis Etienne has the highest percentage of rushes that go for zero or negative yards at 30.8% (minimum 25 rushes). Alexander Mattison (28.4%) and Darrell Henderson (25.0%).
  • Week 10 was only the third game in which Derrick Henry had no more than 2 targets and more than 2 receptions (Weeks 3-4) and it was only his third single-digit score.
  • Will Levis has the lowest INT+FUM per game of the year (1.7%), but is the 40th worst turnover % at 7.5% (FantasyPts) – Jared Goff is best at 1.5%.

Cardinals at Texans, 1 p.m

  • Prior to Week 10, the Cardinals had an EPA/Play of -0.13, a Dropback of -0.17 and a YD/Play of 4.7. With Kyler Murray Back these all improved to -0.04, -0.12 and 5.9. These were all midfielders and not the bottom 7.
  • Texans have -0.15 EPA/Play, -0.24 EPA/Rush and 4.3 YD/Play with Dameon Pierce on the field compared to +0.13, -0.02 and 6.6 without him.
  • Until week 7, Trey McBride was TE32. He reached TE4 in the last three weeks, rising to TE16 this year.
  • The Texans have allowed 21 receptions for 20 yards (mostly T-5) and the fifth-highest AirYD/ATT at 8.70, which helps Marquise Brown this week.

Buccaneers at 49ers, 4 p.m

  • Brock Purdy leads the league with 14.4 YD/Comp, with CJ Stroud Second with 13.9 and Matthew Stafford Third with 13.3.
  • The 49ers have given up 100 yards receiving to a wideout in four straight games.
  • The Buccaneers have the second-hardest RushEPA (behind the Bears), but the third-cheapest PassEPA and the cheapest WR EPA overall.
  • The Buccaneers also allow the highest Passing YPG (319.2) and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass (7.87), as well as the third-highest CPOE (5.8%).

Jets and Bills, 4 p.m

  • The Jets have a league-worst 1.3% of drives that end in a touchdown – the Giants are the only other team under 3.0% (1.9%).
  • The Jets force the most quarterback pressure at 47.5% – the Browns are second at 46.0%.
  • Zach Wilson And PJ Walker are the only two quarterbacks with just one passing touchdown.
  • The Bills have the cheapest PassEPA ahead of the Commanders and Buccaneers and are third for WR (behind those two teams).

Seahawks at Rams, 4 p.m

  • No receiver has exceeded 89 receiving yards (Amari Cooper) since Week 3 (NYG, CIN, ARI, CLE, BAL, WSH) against the Seahawks.
  • The Seahawks also have the eighth-lowest PPG and points per dropback, ninth-lowest pass YPG, 10th-lowest pass EPA, and third-lowest YPR over the period.
  • In the three games before the bye Darrell Henderson had 58.2 RBTouch% and Royce Freeman 41.8, with 7-6-75-0 for Henderson and no receptions for Freeman.
  • DK Metcalf had a touchdown against the Rams in Week 1, but has only had one more touchdown since then and the Rams have only allowed three wideouts since then (all three for the Cowboys).

Vikings at Broncos, SNF

  • Jordan Addison actually has a higher TD/TGT% (12.0) with Justin Jefferson on the field than without him (9.8).
  • Russell Wilson leads the league with 6.9% TD/ATT Justin Fields at 6.8% and Tua Tagovailoa at 6.2%.
  • The Vikings only allowed one running back to rush for more than 65 yards (D’Onta Foreman) this year after D’Andre Swift started in week 2.
  • The Broncos have allowed just 16.0 FPPG to wideouts, the seventh lowest, while facing NYJ, KC, GB, KC, BUF.

Eagles at Chiefs, MNF

  • The Chiefs are the only team to have no game reach the over (five games).
  • The Chiefs have the lowest 3-and-out percentage (21.1), followed by the Lions (22.2).
  • The Eagles are allowed just one rushing touchdown – two per season – and no running back has rushed for more than 59 yards this year.
  • The Chiefs have managed just 0.78 yards before contact, second only to the Buccaneers at 0.61.

WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleeper (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style – Woo-oo is worthy of risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is when you need a Hail Mary). You will not 100% imitate my ranking. This is about aiming for the upside and it often comes with a higher level of risk – to put it simply, they are upside plays that you might consider over a firm bottom option.

Woo-oo worthy

  • QB: Joshua Dobbs, MIN
  • RB: Aaron Jones, GB; Brian Robinson, W.S.H
  • WR: Amari Cooper, CLE; Marquise Brown, ARI
  • TE: Jake Ferguson, DAL

Let’s get dangerous

  • QB: Russell Wilson, DEN
  • RB: Najee Harris, PIT; Darrell Henderson, LAR
  • WR: Rashee Rice, KC; Jayden Reed, GB
  • TE: Luke Musgrave, UK

WEEK 11 BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

Let’s switch to a BEST/WORST playoff schedule outlook, as we’re at the point where “buy lows” and “sell highs” are hard to find due to manager knowledge and limited options.

Best playoff schedules

  • QB: Russell Wilson, DEN; Josh Allen, BUF
  • RB: Austin Ekeler, LAC; Bijan Robinson, ATL; D’Andre Swift, PHI
  • WR: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, SEA; Courtland Sutton, DEN; DeAndre Hopkins, TEN

Worst playoff schedules

  • QB: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA; Sam Howell, W.S.H
  • RB: Dameon Pierce/Devin Singletary, HOU; Joe Mixon, CIN; Saquon Barkley, NYG
  • WR: Jaylen Waddle, MIA; Terry McLaurin; Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, TB

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

We wrapped up the Loki series last week and I said it was the best thing Marvel has done since Infinity War/Endgame and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Interestingly, some said they didn’t like the ending. I think this has more to do with expectations (and to some extent luck) being subverted as it was a near perfect finale. That’s why I decided to rank the best show finales of the 2000s.

NOTE: I haven’t seen The Wire or Sopranos, so I’m not saying their series finales aren’t in the top 10 – I just haven’t seen them.

As for Loki, I thought about putting it in the top 10, but since there are enough people who haven’t seen it or made it this far, I’ll just give my opinion… SPOILERS…

Loki: Glorious Purpose – MAJOR SPOILERS – I thought this would be a wonderful conclusion to this Loki series. He finally has his throne, although not what he ever intended, as he decides to save all branches of the timeline by making the difficult decision. Intense, funny, emotional…just great stuff.

Best Show Finale

  • Friends: The Last One – “I got off the plane!” Perfect ending… well, except Joey never dated anyone – not even a reunion with Kate. Plus one last spontaneous line from Matthew Perry with the “Where?” joke at the end.
  • The Clone Wars: Victory and Death – One of the best series of all time! Ahsoka, Rex, Darth Maul (yes!), the pain when the clones attack each other, the dark “graveyard”, Darth Vader finding his lightsaber. Great.
  • Better Call Saul: Saul Gone – The black and white style fit well with what ultimately led to a farewell to Jimmy, who accepted his crimes and did it all out of love.
  • Justified: The Promise – Such a great and underrated show. All the storylines are connected, the art on board, back to Miami and the final reunions (Ava and then Boyd) and… “We dug coal together.”
  • Shield: Family Reunion – I could hear a pin drop as I waited for Mackey’s confession. Presumably the type “Breaking Bad” ended before “Breaking Bad,” which is why it’s before it…
  • Breaking Bad: Felina – The tower cannon, saving Jesse, telling Jesse to finish the job and the phone call. Simply captivating television.
  • Ted Lasso: So long, farewell – AFC Richmond can win the Premier League, Ted goes home, the team sings the title of the show, Nate is back and redeemed, Rupert finally gets his comeuppance, Sam gets to play for Nigeria, the BELIEVE -Sign is back and one last: “Be a Goldfish” by Ted. We will miss you, Coach Lasso!
  • Suits: One Final Con – The Company and Harvey have their backs against the wall as there seems to be no escape from Faye. The One Final Deceit gives everyone freedom – in different ways – with Harvey and Mike in a new way that I’d love to bring back in a spin-off (but that’s not going to happen).
  • BoJack Horseman: “Nice While It Lasted” – In a series that constantly explores tropes (pun intended), it’s another surprise that Bojack just chooses to accept and move on.
  • New Girl: Engram Pattersky – Winston got crazier with his pranks and the craziness of the finale balances itself out perfectly, ending with a true American game… something we have yet to enjoy.

    • Award

    • Big Bang Theory: Stockholm Syndrome – I know there are a lot of people who didn’t even like the show, but I spent a lot of my young adult life watching this show with my mom and I enjoyed it made. And don’t give me the “laugh track” hate that “Friends” and “Seinfeld” – two of the all-time greats – had. The finale brought laughs and fights as Sheldon shows his biggest moment of growth yet as all storylines are (mostly) concluded. Although, like Friends, one member (Raj) ends up being the only single in the group… well, maybe?
    • “Brooklyn Nine-Nine: The Last Day” (Parts 1 and 2) – A double-cross in the final heist, Jake has a new purpose/purpose for his life, Terry finally becomes captain. Lots of laughter and heart, we felt that for years.
    • Community: Emotional consequences of broadcast television – The members imagine a seventh season with their pitches, everyone shows how they have grown, are on the way to new stories and of course … “and a film”.

    WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

    🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These may differ from my rankings and mine Ranks are the order in which I would start players outside of additional context, such as “Need the highest upside potential, even if it’s risky.” Also based on 4 point TDs for QB, 6 point break and half PPR

    Projections Download Link

    WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

    🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

    • Unfortunately, there is still no perfect widget. I know many see this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop etc if possible, or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, for scrolling to work properly .
    • ECR = “Expert” consensus ranking (which not everyone updates regularly, so use with caution).
    • Will be updated regularly. Please find out about the blocking of the lineups.

    (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)