Ukrainian troops fighting through a stalemate secured a victory this week, gaining a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and pushing back Russian troops on another front, as Moscow struggles to gain ground in its own offensive advances in eastern Ukraine .
Although Ukraine’s counteroffensive launched in June raised hopes of a breakthrough in the West, the war has since descended into a brutal battle of attrition with neither side making any real progress. As winter approaches, it is unlikely that there will be any surprise maneuvers on the 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine in the next few months.
But Ukraine has opened a new front in the southern Kherson region by successfully landing troops across the Dnieper River and holding ground, which could pressure Russian forces and divert their attention from battlefields in the southeastern Zaporizhia region.
“Despite all odds, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have gained a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro. Step by step they are demilitarizing Crimea,” Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said at an event this week. “We know how to achieve victory.”
David Silbey, a professor of military history and politics at Cornell University, said recent developments show that Ukraine retains a tactical advantage even as Kiev faces the difficult task of a long war against a larger Russian army.
“Ukraine has a little bit of the upper hand, but that’s not much better than the standoff itself,” Silbey said. “What we have seen in recent months reminds me of nothing more than the brutal battles of the First World War, where progress was measured in yards, not miles. The losses are pretty terrible.”
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But Ukraine’s Kherson base, a region adjacent to a valuable stronghold in Russian-occupied Crimea, is promising, Silbey added.
“It will certainly cause them to potentially jeopardize Russia’s control of Crimea and worry about whether they can keep their forces in Crimea,” he said. “The big problem is keeping the logistics chain running. Because you have to carry everything across the river to support the troops there.”
Russian military blogger Rybar also noted that the Ukrainian advance in Kherson was causing concern after Ukraine secured a bridgehead in a nearby village.
“The situation on site is consistently difficult,” Rybar wrote on Telegram. “At the moment the enemy has not abandoned its plans to expand the bridgehead on the left bank of the river [Dnipro]. The Ukrainian command will continue to conduct offensive operations in the occupied territories, therefore, despite the relative stabilization of the situation, it is still too early to relax.”
Ukraine has attacked Russian positions across the Dnipro before, but has not yet been able to hold a position on the eastern bank. The bulk of Ukraine’s counteroffensive took place in the Zaporizhzhia region towards the town of Tokmak and around the destroyed town of Bakhmut in Donetsk. The offensive is expected to continue throughout the winter, although likely on a limited basis.
Russian forces are also continuing their offensives against Ukraine, working to capture the rest of Luhansk in the northeast and the eastern Donetsk region.
A major push is taking place around the Donetsk town of Avdiivka, where Russian forces launched a renewed offensive last month but have reportedly suffered heavy casualties, similar to the attack on Bakhmut in the spring.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the defense of Avdiivka was crucial to his military’s goals and was wearing down Russia’s power.
“Russia is already losing soldiers and equipment near Avdiivka faster and to a greater extent than, for example, near Bakhmut,” Zelensky said in a speech this week. “It is extremely difficult to withstand this onslaught.”
Russian forces have reportedly advanced gradually north of Avdiivka this week, striking a coking plant considered strategically important to Ukrainian defenders. If the power plant falls into Russian hands, it would strengthen Moscow’s ability to take the city.
The British Ministry of Defense announced this in a statement Intelligence update that Russian forces are attempting to encircle the city in a pincer movement, but have failed to capture the surrounding areas of Ukraine, and that they would suffer major casualties if they attempted to take the coking plant.
“The industrial facility provides Ukraine with a local defense advantage and Russian forces are likely to suffer significant personnel losses if they attempt to attack the facility,” the ministry wrote.
Ukraine’s infamous fall mud season is coming to an end, opening the door to the harsh winter. While cold temperatures typically slow the pace of fighting, the refrozen ground also opens new opportunities for ground vehicles to advance.
However, Ukraine’s top general has publicly admitted that the counteroffensive will not achieve a breakthrough any time soon, and US primaries begin in January, which will complicate Ukraine’s political support for Kiev’s main backer.
A larger Russian army is better equipped to play the long game, and Russian President Vladimir Putin appears willing to wait, said Michael O’Hanlon, foreign policy research director at the Brookings Institution.
“Russia could more afford the losses with a larger population base,” he said, adding that Russia also “has no prospect of someone winning the presidential election next year who will turn the whole thing around, but the United States does . “So time is currently not on Ukraine’s side.”
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s favorite for the presidential nomination, is not expected to strongly support Ukraine if elected.
O’Hanlon doubted that Moscow could achieve a “net victory” but also expressed little optimism for Ukraine.
“There is certainly no noticeable momentum on either side and little prospect of that changing any time soon,” he said. “There are more things that could pave the way for Russia in the next few months than there are things that could pave the way for Ukraine politically and militarily. Ukraine is having a hard time getting going.”
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