Aaron Nola remains in place.
The Phillies named him their top priority this offseason and put their wallets behind their words by agreeing to a seven-year deal worth $172 million with the starting pitcher, a source confirmed. Terms of the deal were first announced by USA today.
As one of the three most attractive and accomplished players on the free agent market, Nola attracted a lot of attention and was expected to be pursued by at least a handful of contending teams in the major market. It was clear his contract would reach or exceed $150 million, because that’s the price of top pitching. The richest pitching contract last offseason went to Carlos Rodon — six years, $162 million — and Nola has a much more extensive track record at the same age (30).
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Nola met with other teams and turned down more dollars to stay in Philly. Teams love Nola for his reliability, but Philly players love Philly.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 19, 2023
Nola’s contract, which is pending completion and has not yet been announced, exceeds Cole Hamels’ six-year, $144 million deal and is the largest ever for a Phillies pitcher.
The Braves, who have been preparing to increase their payroll and are in the market for starting pitching, were famously after Nola. They posed a real threat and it would have been a tough pill to swallow for the organization if he had switched sides to the division rival. He is now under contract with the Phils for the duration of his age 37 season.
Nola only knows the Phillies. They selected him seventh overall in 2014, hoping he could live up to the pre-draft expectation that he would quickly rise up the minor league ranks, and he did so the next summer debuted.
But from the moment Nola stepped on the mound as a pro, he exceeded expectations with his command, extensive arsenal of throws and his ability to miss bats. He showed that his ceiling was more significant than “innings eater,” and he has developed into a front-line starter over the last nine seasons, finishing third, fourth and seventh in Cy Young since 2018, while also 1,065 led the National League⅓ innings.
Nola has a 3.72 ERA in 235 career starts. He was excellent in 2018 (2.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), 2020 (3.28 ERA) and 2022 (3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). He struggled through large portions of the 2021 and 2023 regular seasons, causing a portion of the fan base to question his ultimate value as a free agent.
But for the second straight year, he stepped up in late September and early October to put the Phillies in position to potentially win it all. They fell two wins short in 2022 and five wins short in 2023, with Nola losing Game 6 of the NLCS at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a stunning team collapse. Nola was far from the reason they lost the series and was as instrumental as anyone in getting the Phils back this far into October, allowing just two runs in 15⅔ innings in the Wild Card before Game 6. Round, NLDS and NLCS, admitted.
The top group of free-agent starters included Nola, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray and Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Phillies never seemed particularly excited about Snell or Gray. Both have durability issues and quite a long injury history. Snell won just his second Cy Young Award, but also led the majors with 99 walks.
They could have found a replacement for Nola in a trade — perhaps someone like Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow or Dylan Cease — but that would have come at a cost to the prospect in addition to a possible contract extension. And there was no guarantee that any of them would perform better than Nola over the life of his next contract.
It will be interesting to see how Nola ages during his new contract. All the mileage on his arm hasn’t caused his performance to decline, and two years in a row he’s been at his best eight months into his baseball calendar. Time catches up with every pitcher and the Phillies hope that will be the case with Nola at least through the late 2020s.
More to come…