Whenever Aaron Nola privately pondered his future with the Phillies last year, those around him tried to explain something. Some employees urged Nola to think about his potential place in the franchise’s history. He was already one of the club’s most successful homegrown starters. And because he came to the majors in 2015 at age 22 and has solidified his workhorse status since then, there were peaks he could reach.
That’s not something that drives Nola, a simple man who has known only one employer since becoming a professional baseball player in 2014. But it was fascinating. He once rotated with Cole Hamels for ten days and could pitch alongside Andrew Painter in the future. Teams like Nola because he is dependable at a time when the workhorse is an endangered species.
But Nola liked the Phillies for the same reason. They are also reliable. They are familiar. They are cozy. They rewarded Nola with this: His seven-year, $172 million contract, signed Sunday according to major league sources, is the richest for a pitcher in Phillies history.
So in the end, the two teams agreed to a contract that they probably should have signed last spring training. This contract gave Nola his preferred length while keeping the Phillies’ average annual value within their preferred range. According to sources, it was a compromise that took shape last Thursday and Friday as talks intensified. Other clubs made offers to Nola, and while sources suggested Nola could have made more money with another team, it is unclear how much more he had left on the table.
This is a reasonable deal that is not without the typical risk that comes with a starting pitcher who turns 31 in June. It’s a contract that follows the mold of many big deals the Phillies have signed in recent years. They are willing to extend a year if it mitigates the annual salary decline.
Nola’s AAV of $24.6 million is the 23rd highest in MLB history for a starting pitcher. It is currently the eighth highest current AAV for a starting pitcher. (Those with higher annual salaries: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Rodón and Chris Sale.) It’s possible that Nola’s AAV will be ranked 10th among current starters at the end of this offseason.
Aaron Nola debuted in 2015. He has made 235 starts for the Phillies. (Chris Szagola/Associated Press)
When the two sides began negotiations in February but they stalled, Nola’s camp was seeking more than $200 million, according to multiple major league sources. Free agency allowed Nola to see how other teams valued him. It is unlikely that any club has reached the $200 million threshold.
The Phillies have made no secret of their intentions: Dave Dombrowski, the club’s president of baseball operations, has described the signing of Nola as the “No. 1 priority” this offseason. The Phillies preferred the known to the unknown. They were intrigued by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the 25-year-old right guard whose market opens Monday when the Orix Buffaloes draft him, but the Phillies have never signed a player directly from Japan. They have never had a Japanese pitcher on their big league roster. It’s been 15 years since a Japanese player wore a Phillies jersey.
Although the Phillies have expanded their presence in Japan over the past two years, they have faced significant obstacles in convincing Yamamoto to accept their money. The interest in freedom of action must be mutual. The club will not be a top bidder for Yamamoto after the Nola deal is completed, sources said.
The Phillies would have had to spend a similar amount of money — if not more than what they committed to Nola — to sign Blake Snell, in addition to valuable draft capital because the left-hander received the qualifying offer. This played a role in the Phillies’ decision to move to a seventh year, sources said. Snell, Nola’s counterpart in durability, is a strong top-of-the-rotation pitcher who won the National League Cy Young Award in his walk year. Teams are buying Snell big. The Phillies weren’t sure about this bet.
They planned a frontline rotation acquisition and with an AAV of $24.6 million, the 2024 payroll reaches unprecedented heights in Phillies history. They expect to have the third highest or fourth highest payroll in the sport. (Only the Mets and Yankees might have higher numbers.) But agents and clubs in contact with the Phillies said Dombrowski has indicated he will seek more bullpen reinforcements – probably not a top player like Josh Hader – and there for that there is room for maneuver in the budget. The Phillies could add a complementary right-handed hitter through free agency or a trade. They remain interested in extending Zack Wheeler, who will be a free agent after the 2024 season, but those talks could wait until spring training.
Their biggest offseason task was completed before Thanksgiving.
Aaron Nola flashes his cap to the crowd at Citizens Bank Park as he leaves Game 3 of the NLDS. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
In Nola, the Phillies know the good and the bad. He disappointed for most of the 2023 season but found another gear in the postseason. He may not be an ace, but he belongs at the top of a contending team’s rotation. How long he can hold this status remains to be seen. Nola has started more games than any other pitcher in baseball since 2018. His defining characteristic is his endurance, and too many pitchers find their bodies failing as they age.
However, if Nola spends the term of his contract with the Phillies, he will break Steve Carlton’s record of 15 years. He will be second to Carlton in at least strikeouts in franchise history. For all-time games started by a Phillies pitcher, he might trail only Carlton and Robin Roberts.
The Phillies believe Nola can age well with this signing.
They also understood the market and the club’s situation. No one else offered the current stability like Nola. Signing another top pitcher would have required giving up draft capital and possibly more money. Atlanta, the Phillies’ main rival, had a vested interest in signing Nola.
So, here they are. The Phillies and Nola are forever linked. He’ll become a father in 2024, and his son or daughter will now experience what it’s like to watch him pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Maybe one day he’ll tell them how he decided to stay and leave a legacy as one of the greatest pitchers this 140-year-old franchise has ever seen.
Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic contributed to this report.
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(Top photo by Aaron Nola: Rich Schultz / Getty Images)