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Completely out of line: Despite the promises of recent years, the commitments announced so far against climate change are completely inadequate and will lead to an increase in average global temperatures of between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees by the end of the century. Much higher than the 1.5 degree safety threshold indicated by science and sanctioned in the 2015 Paris Agreement to prevent the most devastating effects of global warming. The complaint, another one, comes this time from the UN environmental program Unep.
Greenhouse gases and temperatures are rising
According to the 2023 Emissions Gap Report published on November 20, “full implementation of the unconditional national contributions provided for in the Paris Agreement (without external financial assistance, editor’s note) would allow the world to limit temperature rise to 2, 9 degrees above pre-industrial levels in this century. Even taking into account the full implementation of conditional commitments (thanks to external financial assistance), it would fall to 2.5 degrees. At least too much. The results come less than two weeks before the Dubai climate summit, Cop28, which will have the difficult task of keeping the Paris Agreement alive and adding some concrete elements to the inevitable cascade of promises from world leaders.
In the most optimistic scenario, says UNEP, in which all net-zero greenhouse gas emissions commitments are met, “the temperature increase could be limited to 2 degrees.” However, net-zero commitments are not currently considered credible: none of the G20 countries are reducing them emissions at a pace consistent with these goals.” And even in the optimistic scenario, “the probability of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees is only 14%.”
“This is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the most vulnerable and a major missed opportunity,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
“There is no person or economy that is not affected by climate change,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “We must therefore stop the rise in greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures.” 2023 is preparing to go down as the hottest year on record. A record that risks being short-lived.