by Gianluca Di Donfrancesco
A few days before the start of COP28 in Dubai, a new complaint: Promises and commitments are not enough to stop global warming
3′ reading
Completely out of line: Despite the promises of recent years, the commitments announced so far against climate change are completely inadequate and will lead to an increase in average global temperatures of between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees by the end of the century. Well above the 1.5 degree safety threshold indicated by science and sanctioned by the 2015 Paris Agreement to prevent the most devastating effects of global warming. The complaint, another one, comes this time from the UN environmental program Unep.
Greenhouse gases and temperatures are rising
According to the 2023 Emissions Gap Report released on November 20, “full implementation of the unconditional national contributions provided for in the Paris Agreement would allow the world to limit temperature rise this century to 2.9 degrees above pre-industrial levels.” Even taking into account the full implementation of the “conditional” commitments, it would fall to 2.5 degrees. At least too much. The results come less than two weeks before the Dubai climate summit, Cop28, which will have the difficult task of keeping the Paris Agreement alive and adding some concrete elements to the inevitable cascade of promises from world leaders.
In the most optimistic scenario, says UNEP, in which all net-zero greenhouse gas emissions commitments are met, “the temperature increase could be limited to 2 degrees.” However, net-zero commitments are not currently considered credible: none of the G20 countries are reducing them emissions at a pace consistent with these targets.” And even in the optimistic scenario, “the probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is only 14%.”
“There is no person or economy that is not affected by climate change,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “We must therefore stop the rise in greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures.” 2023 is preparing to go down as the hottest year on record. A record that risks being short-lived.
Many now fear that the battle to “maintain the 1.5 degree target” is already lost and that the most realistic scenario is that warming must exceed the critical threshold before it declines again. The Unep report highlights that in the first nine months of 2023, 86 days were recorded with temperatures above 1.5 degrees. September was the warmest month on record, with average global temperatures 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
By the hand of man
This jump in temperature is only partly due to the influence of El Niño. The dominant factor is carbon dioxide emissions, which are not decreasing, only increasing. According to Niklas Höhne, founder of the NewClimate Institute and co-author of the UNEP report, “a major discrepancy is once again emerging between where we want to be and where we are.” At this point, average temperatures are already around 1, 2°C has risen and we are already seeing significant damage. If we double that number, you can imagine the threat will be deadly.”
On November 14, a report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change came to similar conclusions. According to current national plans, global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase by 9% by 2030 compared to 2010. Instead, they would have to fall by 45% to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees.
The new UNEP report shows that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 1.2% in 2022, reaching a new record. A delay in reducing emissions entails the need to rely in the future on removal technologies that have so far made an irrelevant contribution, emphasizes UNEP.
“If we are serious, we have to put an end to the use of fossil fuels,” said Höhne. A very complicated goal given the dependence of major Asian economies such as China and India on the dirtiest of all fossil fuels, coal. And given its rediscovery also in Europe to address the energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Gianluca Di Donfrancesco
editor
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