What better time to check out William Nylander’s contract situation than after the No. 88 completes a trip to his home country of Sweden in spectacular fashion on Sunday?
Some players carry the burden of their contract year as an unrestricted free agent and allow it to impact their performance. Nylander is clearly not one of those players. He’s absolutely fired up and playing like what’s at stake this season doesn’t affect him at all.
As I mentioned on TSN’s Insider Trading on Thursday, things have been very quiet on the Nylander contract front, and that’s by design. Both sides in these negotiations have a desire to keep things tightly under control and have mutually agreed to do so, and so far they have done so.
But Leafs fans shouldn’t mistake this silence as a warning sign. Nothing got out of hand during the talks themselves. As I understand it, the dialogue is ongoing and both sides remain committed to finding a solution by July 1st.
If a site were frustrated, you might see more leaks and messaging, but that’s not happening so far.
However, this deal is obviously difficult to complete for obvious reasons, as the 27-year-old Nylander continues to play spectacularly – one point behind the league lead, at 27 points through Sunday – which increases his salary advantage, and the Leafs need to continue to do so based on a salary cap.
Many rival front offices are anxious to see where this extension will land, whether the Leafs can actually get it done, in part because Toronto already has Auston Matthews at $13.25 million per year starting next season, plus one more season at a time Year 2024. 25 for John Tavares at $11 million and Mitch Marner at $10.9 million. And of course, Toronto also needs to plan for an extension for Marner before the 2025-26 season.
So I reached out to team executives in competing front offices across the NHL and asked them a simple question: What do you think would be a fair contract extension for Nylander?
Here are their answers, via text message, anonymous of course since they cannot comment publicly on other organizations’ player contract negotiations:
Note: Some answers have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
Team leader #1
“This is a very similar situation to what happened in Boston with (David) Pastrnak. Pastrnak signed in March (eight years, $11.25 million) after a season in which he finished with 61 goals and 113 points. In my opinion the fair number would be eight years over $11 million. I know Matthews has $13.25 million, but only a four-year term. If Nylander gets $11.5 million over eight years, that’s $92 million guaranteed, although he would have to externalize $13 million over a 7-year contract to raise that money, which is hard to come by can be achieved.”
Team leader #2
“Given the rising cap and the season he’s playing, I can’t imagine it being less than $11 million…unless he wants to take a discount to go to a destination of his choice travel. That means with a seven to eight year contract.”
Team leader #3
“I estimate it to be around $10.5 million to $11 million, depending on the term.”
Team leader #4
“Difficult question, Pierre. What is fair and what will happen are two different things (smiley emoji). He’ll be 28 years old, has never reached 90 points (though it looks like he will this season) and has never made it past the second round of the playoffs, and only once. But our system pays on points – rightly or wrongly – and he will have a strong case. Does he help Toronto win $9.5 million more than Matthew Tkachuk? Probably not. But the cap goes up and Toronto pays a tax surcharge. $10 million (average annual value), full term. Probably get more, but fair is arbitrary.”
Team leader #5
“I’ll start by asking what he would get as a UFA on the open market. I doubt anyone would spend $11 million on him, but I think he would get $10 million. So if he wants to stay in Toronto, a small discount in his hometown could get him $9 or $9.5 million.”
Team leader #6
“Depends on his attitude. Aho (eight years, $9.75 million AAV) is an easy comparison and can be considered fair. But given Toronto’s food chain, he shouldn’t be too far off from whatever Marner gets next. This puts the price at $10.5 to $11.5 million. He’ll have an impact if he wants to, but if he wants to hold the core together at 34 and 16, then it shouldn’t be much more than Aho, who is actually at the top of their food chain. But Aho believed in a bigger organizational picture and didn’t have 34, 16 and 91, all of whom earned more than him. (Nylanders) has the right season and a half at the right time. He could benefit from free agency. Depends on whether he wants to. If he re-signs I could see 10.5 to 11.5 million.”
Team leader #7
“Nylander is a unique player who you can have many different opinions about. … As talented as he is, some teams wouldn’t make him the “guy” on their team. For many teams it is the shiny sports car that you treat yourself to when your portfolio is in order. That being said, players who do as much as him get paid. It only takes one team, so I can see a team moving up in the $10 million range, but it probably won’t be a competitive team. I’m not sure how many teams will currently try to make this signing until the cap increases significantly. I’m not sure how Toronto could ever bring him into the future while also filling their gaps, but I always felt he would remain a Leaf.”
Team leader #8
“Somewhere between Gaudreau (seven years, $9.75 million) and Huberdeau (eight years, $10.5 million), I suspect. Must be south of Pastrnak, right?”
Team leader #9
“I think fair is in the $10.5 million to $10.75 million range.”
Team leader #10
“I think because of his age… eight years, $8.5 million to $9 million if I’m the Leafs. They can’t waste Matthews’ prime time, so they need him. …How many more prime years can you get from Nylander? Three? Are you then getting a fair value over the last three or so years? If he wants one term, they need to keep the number manageable.”
Team leader #11
“Game breaker. On the one hand, probably count how many players are as dynamic as him. Can change the game in an instant. At a good age. Not every team has the spot, but there are 32 teams. Someone will pay for it. Below Pastrnak but just barely. If he wants, it starts with a 10.”
Team leader #12
“Eight years, $11.5 million is fair. Touch more than Pastrnak. Looking at the internal structure, he should earn more than Marner and Tavares. But it will take eight years, $12 or $12.25 million, I would estimate.”
My opinion
What’s fascinating about this exercise is that there are a lot of smart front office people here with varying views, ranging from a low AAV of $9 million in one case to an AAV of $12.25 million at the other End enough. What’s also interesting is that everyone who responded assumed it would be a max contract if he re-signed in Toronto, and I’m not sure anyone should assume that 100 percent. Neither side has commented. Finally, Matthews did not sign a maximum contract.
However, the carrot the Leafs have is to earn total dollars over eight years, rather than going to the market and getting a maximum of seven years, as team executive No. 1 noted. Mind you, Tkachuk got around that by executing a sign-and-trade en route from Calgary to the Florida Panthers to get his eight-year maximum contract. So there is always that possibility.
But let’s go back to what we know: Nylander has expressed a desire to stay in Toronto. For this reason, I expect Toronto to get this done at some point. However, I can’t think of a maximum term contract that doesn’t have a double-digit AAV. Nylander has reached a new level in his game at the absolute perfect time in his career.
However, if he wants to win a championship in Toronto, finding a number that works for the Leafs at a certain level will also be important.
(Photo: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)