It may not seem like it now, but Dave Dombrowski wasn’t confident at the start of the offseason that the Phillies could lock down Aaron Nola long-term — let alone find common ground on a contract on Nov. 19, five days before Thanksgiving would and two weeks before the MLB winter meetings.
Hopeful? Yes. Convinced? NO.
“I wasn’t confident,” the Phillies’ president of baseball operations said Monday afternoon at a news conference to announce Nola’s new seven-year, $172 million contract.
“Even though I knew Aaron loved it here, you never know what could happen when someone hits free agency. So no, I wasn’t confident at all. I was hopeful and thought it was a great decision that worked out for everyone.”
Teams went after Nola hard, with the Braves and Dodgers reportedly making similar offers to the Phillies, while the Cardinals also reached out to Nola’s camp and it was believed the Red Sox were also lurking. Everyone has to start pitching. Nola was one of the top three arms on the free agent market. The list of applicants would only grow.
Shortly after the season ended, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos made it clear that Atlanta’s payroll would increase and that starting pitching was a goal. In recent days, the Braves have freed up 40 roster spots by trading right-hander Kyle Wright to the Royals and not trading seven players, the most of any team.
“It was most important to us to keep him for ourselves, but I certainly wouldn’t have wanted him to go to Atlanta, someone who was in your own department,” Dombrowski said. “There were also other clubs that were interested in him, of which there were many. I wouldn’t have been looking forward to a pitcher of his ilk starting against us.”
Nola might have been able to find more money elsewhere — either in average annual salary, overall value, or both — but that wasn’t the only factor in the Louisiana kid’s adjustment to the Northeast over the last decade, getting married and making a second home has .
“I always wanted to be a Phillie, I’ve always been a Phillie. This is the only place we had our eye on,” he said. “It was the most comfortable place for me. Everyone in this organization was so committed to winning, so dedicated to the players. The relationships I have built will last a lifetime. I feel like it would be hard to get away from these people.
“For me it’s not really about the money, it’s about being in a place where we want to stay for the next seven years. This part is more important to me, the relationships and memories that I have built here and that we have created a team. That beats (money).”
Regardless of relationships, seven years and $172 million is still a lot of money, more years and dollars than the Phillies have ever given a pitcher. There’s a high chance that Nola will deal with an injury at some point during the term of the contract, that’s just the reality of throwing so many throws year after year. He has led the National League in innings pitched since 2018 and hasn’t missed a start in six seasons. The Phillies will continue to keep their fingers crossed for Nola’s longevity, but paying any pitcher that much money is a risk. It would have been a risk with Nola, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Yoshinobu Yamamoto or any other arm the Phillies might have traded.
“When you evaluate things like this, you have to start with composition, and I don’t know if anyone in the game has a better composition than Aaron Nola,” general manager Sam Fuld said.
One of the most important factors in the Phillies’ success in 2022 and 2023 was the health of Zack Wheeler and Nola, the two best workhorses in the Netherlands. Father time comes for every pitcher, and the decline is not always gradual. Sometimes it comes suddenly, as has been the case in recent years with Roy Halladay, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and James Shields, to name a few.
There’s no way to guarantee health, but both Nola and Dombrowski spoke Monday about the importance of Nola stepping away at times.
“I’ve definitely thought about it and I hope I definitely age well,” Nola said. “I will do everything I can to hold on. I feel like I have some options for getting healthy and staying healthy, but it just comes down to what I have to do and what I don’t have to do. When I say “I’m too tired, there’s no longer a set thing I have to do every day. I learned early in my career that this wasn’t working for me. Finding my routine early in my career helped me a lot.”
Nola’s contract runs until 2030, a year before Bryce Harper’s expires. The Phillies now have seven players making at least $20 million per year, and Taijuan Walker isn’t far behind at $18 million per year.
A large part of the team is on site. The rotation is from one to five with Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suarez, Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. Eight of nine day-to-day positions are filled and the final outfield spot could be filled internally if Johan Rojas shows enough offensive improvement in spring training.
What else is in store for the Phillies this offseason?
“I think the way we’re going to look at it now is that we’re in a position where we can evaluate a lot of different things that could improve our club,” Dombrowski said. “We don’t really have a glaring vacancy that we need to fill, like we needed a starting pitcher. We’re pretty deep in our bullpen, but obviously you could always be better. Our position players, our infield are basically set.” “Outfield, we have a little question. We don’t really have a pressing need, but we’ll continue to see how we can get better.”