According to the UN, by the beginning of October this year there had been 86 days recorded with temperatures more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
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Current measures taken by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate and will lead to a 3 degree rise in global temperatures this century compared to the pre-industrial era, the United Nations warned today. (Can read: Disagreements in negotiations for a global agreement on plastics)
Current measures taken by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate and will lead to a 3 degree rise in global temperatures this century compared to the pre-industrial era, the United Nations warned today. (Can read: Disagreements in negotiations for a global agreement on plastics)
The promises of the international community are therefore still far from the goals of the Paris Agreement (2015), which aims to limit temperature rise to less than 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C.
The Nairobi-based UN Environment Program (UNEP) issued the warning in its 2023 Emissions Gap Report, which it released in Dubai ahead of the 10-day start of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), the key political forum for tackling the climate crisis.
This year’s study is titled “Record Broken: Temperatures Reach New Highs, But World Fails to Cut Emissions (Again)” and compares actual declines in greenhouse gases with those needed to combat global warming. (You may be interested in: They warn of a possible landslide near the Nevado del Tolima)
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UNEP emphasizes that global changes are needed to achieve a 28% and 42% reduction in projected greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, on a path towards 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees, respectively.
“There is no longer a person or economy on the planet that is not affected by climate change. That is why we must stop setting unwanted records for greenhouse gas emissions, maximum global temperatures and extreme weather conditions,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
Andersen called for “setting other records: in emissions reductions, in green and just transitions, and in climate finance.”
According to the UN, by the beginning of October this year there had been 86 days recorded with temperatures more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
Last September was the hottest month on record, with average global temperatures 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels. (You can also read: Europe no longer receives products from deforested areas. What does this mean for Colombia?)
The report found that global greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a new record of 57.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
This measurement, whose English acronym is GtCO2e, is used to quantify the mass of greenhouse gases based on their warming potential.
G20 emissions are rising
Emissions of these gases in the G20 (group of industrialized and emerging countries) increased by 1.2% in 2022.
“If mitigation efforts continue at current levels under current policies, global warming this century will be limited to only 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels,” UNEP warned.
Full implementation of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) – which includes each country’s planned emissions and mitigation measures – would result in “limiting temperature rise to 2.9°C”.
“Conditional NDCs (where targets depend on external financial support), if fully implemented, would result in temperatures not exceeding 2.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels,” he added. (You may be interested in: COP28 is approaching and offers the opportunity for climate protection to get going again)
The report assumed that it would be possible to “limit temperature rise to 2 degrees” if all conditional NDCs and long-term “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions pledges were implemented.
However, he noted that “net zero promises are not currently viewed as credible” as “none of the G20 countries are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net zero targets.”
Even in the “most optimistic scenario,” the probability of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is “only 14%.”
The report calls on all countries to undertake transformations for low-carbon development across the economy, with a focus on the energy transition.
According to the United Nations, the most capable and responsible nations in terms of emissions (particularly those in the G20) must “take more ambitious and rapid action and provide financial and technical support to developing countries.”
Looking ahead to COP28, which will take place until December 12, the study highlighted that this conference will see the first Global Assessment (GST) since the Paris Agreement.
The GST will announce the next round of NDCs that countries should submit in 2025, with targets for 2035.
“The global target in the next round of NDCs,” UNEP stressed, “must bring greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 to a level consistent with the targets towards 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees.”
In addition, this round offers low- and middle-income countries the opportunity to develop “roadmaps” for ambitious climate and development policies and set clear targets that require financial and technological support.
“COP28,” he concluded, “should ensure that international support is provided for the development of such roadmaps.”