Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings: Sleepers, Predictions, Starts, Seats | Zach Charbonnet, AJ Dillon And More

Kyren Williams is back, Zach Charbonnet is a top player, Isaiah Likely is a sleeper tight end, and Odell Beckham is relevant again…it’s Thanksgiving week for sure. There are some interesting names to consider in the Week 12 fantasy football rankings, and the game previews offer the relevant nuggets to give you an edge. Plus, it’s Thanksgiving conversation about food to round out things (like your tummy! badabum-chhhh)…

Contents

#CheckTheLink age
Week 12 Waivers | SOS Ranks Week 12 (THU)
Fantasy Football 101 (weather, lineups, trades, more)
Renee Miller dispels a common turkey myth
Everything in the football podcast

WEEK 12 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW

**BYE SHOTS: NONE**

NOTE: ALL of the statistics are SINCE WEEK 6 – Unless known. This is because it makes sense to compare current performance to that throughout the year in terms of defense, etc., as things can change with in-season adjustments.

Acronyms

RBTouch% – RB Touch Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total RB touches this player had
TmTGT% – Team Goals Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total goals going to this player
TGT% – Percentage of time a player has as a goal while running routes
G2G and GL – Goal-to-Go (within the 10-yard line) and Goal-Line (within the 5-yard line)
TmAirYD% – Team Air Yards Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total air yards that go to this player
CPOE – Completion Percentage Above Expectation – Completion Percentage Allowed Considering Passage Difficulty (Depth, Coverage, etc.)
Stuff% – A run that is not intended for a touchdown, i.e. 4+ yards on first down or 3+ yards on any other down
Explosive Run – Any rush longer than 15 meters
YPRR – Yards per Route Run – pretty valuable indicator

Packers at Lions, 12:30 p.m., Thanksgiving

AJ Dillon is a volume dependent RB2 with Aaron Jones out of.
The Lions are fifth on the team before contact – Jahmyr Gibbs is first (2.42) and David Montgomery Fifth (2.23) for RBs with at least 20 runs.
They also rank third and fifth in yards per touch with 7.5 (Monty) and 6.4 (Gibbs). Keaton Mitchell (10.4), Kyren Williams (7.9) and Jaylen Warren (7.4) are the others in the top 5.

Commanders at Cowboys, 4:30 p.m., Thanksgiving

Brian Robinson is a solid RB1, even in a tough matchup, though Antonio Gibson is out. When Gibson plays, Robinson is an RB2.
The Cowboys have the third-highest QB pressure rate (43.8%). Sam Howell has the most QB pressures (106), Baker Mayfield Second (97). When under pressure, Howell also has the 11th-best Comp% (53.2) and 9th-best YD/Comp (13.9).
Conversely, Commanders have the second lowest pressure rate (27.2%), and Dak Prescott leads in TD/ATT when not under pressure (9.2% – Brock Purdy Second with 8.2% – Kenny Pickett most recently at 1.1%).
The Cowboys lead the league with 36.5% of their drives ending in touchdowns, ahead of the Eagles and Ravens – the other two teams have over 30%.

49ers at Seahawks, 8:20 p.m., Thanksgiving

Also against the 49ers Zach Charbonnet is an RB2 with no Kenneth Walker. If KW3 plays, both would be risk/reward RB2/3s.
DK Metcalf actually increased his FPPG compared to last year (11.4 from 10.9), and while not at his 2020 levels, Metcalf was a fringe WR2/3, going 8.9-17.9 in all games except for a constant. Not what we were hoping for, but not terrible either.
Brock Purdy has six games with 18+ points, drawn with Sam Howelland only behind Jalen hurts (9), Justin Herbert And Josh Allen (8 each).

Dolphins at Jets, 3 p.m., Friday

If De’Von Achane plays, he’s worth the advantage as an RB2/3, but without him, Raheem Mostert is MUST-start and Jeff Wilson an RB3/4.
The Jets have by far the lowest rate of drives ending in a touchdown at 4.8%, while the Panthers are the second worst (9.6%).
The Jets, Chiefs and Broncos are the only three teams that have not scored a single game in the over (five games each).

Saints at Falcons, 1 p.m

With Michael Thomas on IR, AT Perry is a high ceiling/high risk game and Rashid Shaheed is a solid WR3/4. If Derek Carr We can’t leave, we know that Jameis Winston‘s style gives the whole thing more boom/bust, but also spoils the whole thing Taysom Hill TE1 fun.
Desmond Ridder Leads the league with 6.7% INT+Fumbles (per dropback or rush) – Aidan O’Connell is next at 5.5%.
moved to London was targeted on 22.7% of his routes with Ridder and only 13.0% with Taylor Heinicke – his OFFTGT% of targets was also just 12.1 for Ridder as opposed to 33.3 for Heinicke.

Steelers at Bengals, 1 p.m

Without Joe Burrow, Yes’Marr Chase is an edge WR1, T-shirt Higgins (if active) a WR3 and Tyler Boyd a desperation WR4/5. No Higgins would push Boyd into WR4 territory, but still risky.
Diontae Johnson had 49.9% of his team’s air yards – last year’s league leader DJ Moore at 47.6%.
The Bengals have the lowest Run Stuff% (38.0), followed by the Broncos (38.9).
Joe Burrow had a catchable TGT of 84.5% (best qualified QBs in the league) with a 10.7 OFFTGT% (second lowest). Jake Browning is 71.4% and 28.6%.

Panthers at Titans, 1 p.m

Derrick Henry is averaging 4.2 YPC this year (T23 among qualified RBs), which marked his career low in 2017 when he shared the job with DeMarco Murray and had Marcus Mariota at quarterback.
Bryce Young leads in OFFTGT% (17.7), O’Connell second (16.0) and Matthew Stafford third (14.2) – Stafford may not finish the season and could decline Carson Wentzfor those who need to create backup/depth quarterback plans.
Chuba Hubbard has five G2G rushes and three GL attempts compared to zero for Miles Sanders.

Buccaneers at Colts, 1 p.m

The Buccaneers allow the highest Comp% (69.8), PassYPG (302.0) and CPOE (6.8%), the most receiving TDs (14), and the second-highest YD/REC (12.9).
The Colts have the most RushYPG allowed (140.2), followed by the Cardinals (138.7).
Rachaad White is sixth in FPPG since Week 7, in part due to four touchdowns and a league-high 256 receiving yards for running backs – the Colts just let it happen Rhamondre Stevenson And Ezekiel Elliott Combined for 33 of 142 from the floor and 7-5-48 receptions before the bye.

Patriots at Giants, 1 p.m

The Giants offense has the highest 3-and-out percentage at 52.6, while the Raiders and Colts are tied for second at 40.0%.
Only the Panthers have a lower Explosive Play% than the Patriots (7.0 and 7.2).
The Giants were the toughest against opposing tight ends in EPA – nearly twice the Browns’ EPA.
Since week 6 is missing, Demario Douglas had 22.8 TmTGT% and 21.9 TmAirYD% for receptions of 29-20-218-0.

Jaguars at Texans, 1 p.m

If Noah Brown plays, Nico Collins And Tank Dell remain top-two options, but Brown has top-25 potential (though still risky), giving Collins and Dell a more difficult floor.
Brown leads the league with 17.5 YD/TGT, 23.3 YD/REC and 3.74 YPRR Khalil Shakir (16.0), Brandon Aiyuk (20.6) and Tyreek Hill (3.48) per second – Aiyuk is also third in YD/TGT (13.3) and fifth in YPRR (2.98) – the only top-5 receiver in all three.
Trevor Lawrence Leads the league in first-read% (82.9). Tua Tagovailoa Second (75.7) and Russell Wilson lowest value (49.3) – in the games with Zay Jones, Calvin Ridley has a first read value of 28.3% and a TGT value of 24.5% Christian Kirk 25.5 and 20.3. Without Jones, Ridley is at 21.4 and 17.3, while Kirk is at 24.7 and 22.4.

Browns at Broncos, 4 p.m

The Browns have the second-highest QB pressure rate (45.4%), but Russell Wilson has the second-best passer rating (115.7) when under pressure (Lamar Jackson 133.9) and highest TD/ATT (12.8% – Jackson second with 8.9%).
The Browns forced the second-highest 3-and-out percentage (48.7) and the Broncos are sixth in 3-and-out percentage (38.9) – TEN (defense) vs. CAR (offense) and NO (defense) vs. ATL (offense) are the only other two matchups with opponents in the top 10 for each… I hope that made sense haha those are bad matchups for offenses.
Courtland Sutton is the leader in TD/TGT (16.1%), followed by Romeo Doubs (14.3%).
David Njoku leads all tight ends in yards after catch per reception with 8.69 – also second only to Noah Brown with 9.06.

Rams at Cardinals, 4 p.m

With Kyren Williams Back, he’s a fringe RB1/2. The top 10 still has potential, but the Rams could relieve him, which means Royce Freeman (Goal Line Carries) is a Hail Mary RB4 hoping for a touchdown.
Williams is/was second Keaton Mitchell in forced missed tackles per attempt (0.55), Mitchell at 0.75.
In the last four weeks Trey McBride is Top 10 in TmTGT% (T7th with 30.2%) and TGT% (8th with 29.2%) among WRs and TEs – TJ Hockenson is the only other tight end in the top 10 for both.

Chiefs at Raiders, 4 p.m

Davante Adams And Jakobi Meyers rank third and fourth in the percentage of their goals that fall off target (24.6% and 24.2%). Jonathan Mingo (32.0%) and Odell Beckham (29.0%).
The Raiders allow a league-high 1.81 yards before contact (the Ravens are surprisingly second at 1.65 yards).
No Chiefs receiver has more than 12.6% of targets (Rashee Rice), where all recipients are unnamed Kadarius Toney The range ranges from 44.5 to 68.9% of the routes traveled and from 205 to 420 receiving yards.

Bills at Eagles, 4 p.m

The Bills are the only teams to have failed to cover a spread in five games (six played), while the Chargers have failed in four of six games.
Khalil Shakir saw an immediate jump with the loss of Dawson Knox and more in three-point range for the Bills, but he’s at 70.4-75.0% of routes and 8.0-15.4% of targets. Exciting ceiling but risky floor that keeps him in the WR4 conversation.
Last year, DeVonta Smith jumped from 21.6 TGT% to 24.4 and 25.9 TmAirYD% to 36.9 if Dallas Goedert was out. This year, these numbers are even more significant, rising from 15.5 to 30.2 TGT% and 27.3 to 51.6 TmAirYD%.

Ravens at Chargers, SNF

A healthy one Odell Beckham is in the game as a top 20 WR3. When he’s outside, Zay flowers becomes more appealing, and Isaiah probably is definitely worth a risk.
The Chargers allow the highest catch percentage (84.0), followed by the Cardinals in second (79.9%).
Week 11 was the first game since Week 7 (second game back from injury). Austin Ekeler did not achieve a double-digit result. Ekeler still had 5.8 YPT and 6.4 YPR, both the second-highest outside of his Week 1 performance — and the Ravens’ run defense wasn’t unstoppable Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jerome Ford And Joe Mixon all have reached double figures against them in their last six games.

Bears at Vikings, MNF

The Vikings are the only team that has covered the spread (6-on-6) in every game over the last six weeks – CLE, DAL, JAX and PHI have all missed it just once.
If D’Onta Foreman is out, Khalil Herbert drives the RB2 value Roshon Johnson an RB4 gamble. If Foreman plays, he would be an RB3 with Herbert Rand RB2/3.
The Bears continue to have the highest stuff percentage on opposing rushes (52.8% – Commanders second at 51.8%).
After limiting the Broncos’ running game, the Vikings have since limited all opposing running backs to 65 rushing yards or fewer D’Andre Swift in week 2 and only Isiah Pacheco And Christian McCaffrey reached double figures with Swift this season.

WEEK 12 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleeper (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style – Woo-oo is worthy of risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is when you need a Hail Mary). You will not 100% imitate my ranking. This is about aiming for the upside and it often comes with a higher level of risk – to put it simply, they are upside plays that you might consider over a firm bottom option.

Woo-oo worthy

QB: Gardner Minshew, IND
RB: Isiah Pacheco, KC; Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
WR: Zay Flowers, BAL; Adam Thielen, CAR
TE: Evan Engram, JAX

Let’s get dangerous

QB: Jordan Love, GB
RB: Ty Chandler, MIN; Keaton Mitchell, B.A.L
WR: Khalil Shakir, BUF; Tutu Atwell, LAR (if Cooper Kupp is unavailable)
TE: Isaiah Likely, BAL

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

Thanksgiving is here, which means it’s dinner time! Before we turn our attention to football watching and carb coma between the afternoon/evening games, it’s time for the top 10 best – and worst – Thanksgiving teams.

Best Thanksgiving Side Dishes

Croissant rolls – breads in general. Hate it all you want, but when do you eat it? With the food… by the way. I could crush a whole basket of them without batting an eyelid – warm, fluffy, full of butter…drool-inducing

Sweet potato… something – I don’t know what to call it, but thinly sliced, baked in this syrup and brown sugar glaze – candied yams maybe? Sweet potato casserole is a good addition.

Filling – homemade!

Mashed potatoes

Mac and Cheese – I can easily argue that it’s not a true Thanksgiving dish and my family doesn’t do it, but if I’m somewhere and it’s offered for consumption, you know I’ll eat some

Stuffed mushrooms

Fried potatoes (red skin) or potatoes au gratin (I’m not going to lie, I had to look up the spelling)

Cornbread – and NO, cornbread does NOT contain actual corn chunks

Antipasto Salad – Lots of variations, but my family’s consists of pepperoni, soppressata, cheddar, mozzarella, pepper jack, artichoke and an Italian dressing

More buns and filling! — Seconds of this are better than anything else you could add to your plate.

The Worst Thanksgiving Sides

Ambrosia Salad – I don’t know which unicorn fairy banished to hell thought of this, but this fruit stuff is the fuel for nightmares.

Salad, salad – A salad? Who’s trying to eat healthy on Thanksgiving or wants to waste the time eating a salad first? Just get to the good stuff!

Premade Vegetable Tray – the laziest side dish – so your lame friend who spent five minutes and dollars bringing his “contribution to the party”… which he doesn’t even eat while devouring all the good stuff – and you have this.

Coleslaw – I love coleslaw, but it has no place or relevance at Thanksgiving.

Kale – This “superfood” is super gross no matter how much your friends want to talk about it while showing you IG photos of their cross-fit classes, 20-mile hikes, and hemp shoes.

Creamed spinach – Is this a dip? It’s definitely not a side dish. It’s more like my dog ate pieces of a green toy and threw it up.

Soup – Like salad, why do we waste time on food before eating? Nobody is sick. Keep your water foods away from Thanksgiving!

Canned corn/peas – Actually, all canned vegetables are boring, tasteless and stay on the children’s table.

Cranberry Sauce – This is the most hated because I know many who absolutely love this red, Jell-O like “lump of fruit.”

Green Bean Casserole – How can we make green beans even worse? Put soup on it! Creamy – often mushroom – soup ingredients and crunchy onions make them better? Bleh.

WEEK 12 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These may differ from my rankings and mine Ranks are the order in which I would start players outside of additional context, such as “Need the highest upside potential, even if it’s risky.” Also based on 4 point TDs for QB, 6 point break and half PPR

Download link added on Thursday