During the offseason, CBS Sports’ MLB experts bring you a weekly Batting Around roundtable breaking down just about everything. The latest news, a historical question, thoughts on the future of baseball, you name it. Last week we talked about Juan Soto’s future. This week we will do the same with Shohei Ohtani.
Where will Ohtani sign? How much will he get?
Dayn Perry: I’m aware that the Dodgers appear to be the favorites to sign him, but I’m going to deviate from that consensus and say he’s signed to the Rangers for around $510 million. Ohtani has indicated multiple times that winning will be a priority when choosing his destination, and Texas, of course, is coming off a championship season. They are considered contenders for the coming years, and their ownership group has been willing to spend money in recent years. The Rangers also have a need at DH with Mitch Garver free agency, and by the time Ohtani is ready to pitch again in 2025, the Rangers will likely have Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney heading into free agency (or in Scherzer’s case possibly retire). . The two sides just cross each other, so I go to Texas.
Matt Snyder: I’m staying with the Dodgers. They have been preparing to face him for two years, have arguably the deepest pockets in baseball, are a natural fit with him on the roster and could have a regional advantage.
As far as fit goes, Dodgers DH JD Martinez is a free agent and last year’s lineup would have needed more depth anyway. Ohtani obviously can’t pitch in 2024, but the rotation needs multiple adjustments for 2025 and beyond. There’s no telling where Clayton Kershaw will be and Walker Buehler is slated to hit free agency after 2024. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin could be back for 2025, while it’s possible that young players like Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan will have established themselves as rotation starters by then. Basically it’s nothing but question marks.
As for regional commentary, Ohtani has spent his entire MLB career with the Angels, so joining the Dodgers wouldn’t be a big move.
And finally, the deep pockets. I think the Dodgers beat any offer. As for height, I’ll start with Aaron Judge. He arrived in free agency after an MVP season and was a year older than Ohani. He got nine years and $360 million. Given the additional year of youth and the fact that Ohtani will most likely be a great pitcher again in addition to his Judge-like offense, I think we need to add about $100 million there for the same length, along with possibly another year. I’ll just make it just 10 years and $500 million.
Mike Axisa: In my bold offseason predictions, I signed a 13-year, $500 million deal with the Dodgers, so I guess I’ll have to stick with it. However, I think the Rangers are a real threat and I won’t discount Steve Cohen and the Mets. The Blue Jays are also a great fit. It just feels like the Dodgers have spent the last few years adjusting their payroll and roster so that they can wow Ohtani with an offer this offseason. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman missed out on Ohtani once, and I don’t think he’ll be denied again.
As for the contract, I expect it to be complicated. The Dodgers have a penchant for deferrals that lower the current value and therefore the competitive accounting tax bill (Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts have significant deferrals in their contracts), so I expect they will try to work some of those into Ohtani’s contract as well . I could also see Ohtani pushing for an exit, possibly after 2025, once his elbow is healthy and he has a chance to show he can still be an effective pitcher. Ohtani’s contract could contain all sorts of deferments, opt-outs, bonuses, options and so on. A direct contract for X dollars over Y years is unlikely to materialize.
Ohtani to the Dodgers would almost be boring at this point, although I think it’s most likely. So likely I would put the Dodgers over the field, and I would almost never put a single team over the field as a free agent. The Dodgers want him badly and can offer Ohtani anything he wants. Money, a chance to compete for a World Series, and the chance to stay in Southern California, where he’ll probably be comfortable. It just makes so much sense. They check all the right boxes.
RJ Anderson: I agree with Axisa that the contract is likely to be lengthy and complicated. I also feel like the Dodgers are the favorites – although I’m sure the Rangers and others will make a big effort to acquire his services. I’m assuming 10 years and $500 million, with a lot of opt-outs, essentially resulting in a series of smaller deals.