NFL NationESPN November 22, 2023, 7:00 AM ET9 minutes read
Barry Sanders is impressed with what he sees from the Lions
Hall of Famer Barry Sanders talks to Pat McAfee about why the Lions are a real NFC contender this season.
The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2023 season begins with three great Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the top keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information offers a large stat and betting nugget for every competition, and our Football Power Index (FPI) delves into the numbers with a match prediction. Analytics writer Seth Walder highlights each matchup’s biggest X-factor and fantasy analyst Eric Moody provides helpful fantasy football information. Finally, Walder and Moody give us tips for the final result of all three games. Here’s everything you want to know in one place so you can prepare for an exciting Thursday afternoon of NFL football.
Jump to a matchup:
GB-DET | WSH-DAL | SF SEA
12:30 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DET -7.5 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: In Detroit, Thanksgiving and football go hand in hand like peanut butter and jelly, ever since the Lions hosted their first-ever Thanksgiving Day game in 1934. But they haven’t had much success on this day recently – they haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016. Now the Packers will roll into town to try and curb the Lions’ hype train after winning two of their last three games. But Green Bay has lost four straight to the Lions, which is the second-longest streak in franchise history. –Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Lions won’t cut Packers quarterback Jordan Love. They caught him twice in the Week 4 matchup and had interceptions in two of their last three games. Love hasn’t had consecutive games without an interception since Week 1-2, but that could change this week. Last Sunday he didn’t throw a throw against the Chargers, which was perhaps his sharpest performance of the season. Look for him to keep the momentum going against Detroit, which ranks 17th in the NFL with eight defensive interceptions. – Rob Demovsky
Statistics you should know: Lions quarterback Jared Goff has had plenty of success against the Packers in his career, posting a 5-1 record against Green Bay in the regular season. That currently represents the third-best winning percentage by a starting quarterback against the Packers since 1950, behind only Jim McMahon and Bobby Layne.
Matchup X-Factor: Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon. He’s Green Bay’s slot corner, which means he’ll attract plenty of receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. These are the two most important pass catchers to stop if the Packers want to slow down the Lions’ pass offense. — Walder
Injuries: Packers | Lions
What you should know for fantasy: Jayden Reed leads all Packers wide receivers in receiving yards this season (463) and scored a 32-yard rushing touchdown against the Chargers on Sunday. With running back Aaron Jones dealing with a knee injury, Reed could fill a Deebo Samuel-like role for the Packers. With 3.1 fantasy points per touch, he is one of the top 20 wide receivers. See Week 12 Rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 11-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 division games. Read more.
Moody’s selection: Lions 34, Packers 21
Walder’s choice: Lions 30, Packers 20
FPI forecast: DET, 64% (average 4.8 points)
Thanksgiving review: This will be the first Packers-Lions matchup on Thanksgiving Day since 2013, but these NFC North opponents are no strangers to the Turkey Day clash. It will be the 22nd time Detroit and Green Bay have met on Thanksgiving Day, the most of any franchise ever. The Lions are 12-8-1 in their last 21 games. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: In the Packers’ win over the Chargers, Love made a statement… Williams finally feels “part of the herd” in Detroit.
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DAL -11 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: The Cowboys have won four of their last five… and the Commanders have lost four of their last five. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has a 9-2 career record against Washington with 19 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and he has beaten the Commanders twice on Thanksgiving (2016, 2018), throwing three touchdown passes and zero picks threw. Add to that the fact that he has led the NFL in QBR (76.6) since Week 4, and Prescott is poised to continue his streak. But remember, he’s also 3-3 on holidays with nine touchdown throws and five interceptions over his career. –Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Dallas receiver CeeDee Lamb will have three gains for 20-plus yards en route to a 140-yard, two-TD day against Washington. The Commanders defense has the most passing plays of 20 yards or more in the NFL (43), while the Cowboys offense ranks fifth in gaining more than 20 yards through the air (41). Degrees). And Lamb leads the NFL with 22 such receptions. – John Keim
Statistics you should know: Commanders quarterback Sam Howell was sacked a total of 51 times this season, more than the league-wide total. More bad news? The Cowboys have hit a league-high 39% on opponent dropbacks.
Matchup X-Factor: Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland. He holds the NFL record with four pick-sixes and is now competing against the somewhat unpredictable Howell. This – and Dallas’ Week 18 game against Washington – are probably Bland’s best chances to break the record. — Walder
Injuries: Commanders | Cowboys
What you should know for fantasy: The Commanders’ defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. In six games against the Commanders, Lamb averaged seven goals and 11.7 fantasy points. It’s very likely that Lamb will exceed those per-game averages on Thanksgiving. See Week 12 Rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Since the merger in 1970, the Cowboys have been double-digit favorites on Thanksgiving, going 12-0 overall and 9-3 ATS. However, the Commanders are 6-1 ATS as underdogs this season, including 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Read more.
Can Sam Howell be trusted in fantasy against the Cowboys?
Eric Moody has Sam Howell as a low-end QB1 in fantasy this week despite his tough matchup against the Cowboys.
Moody’s selection: Cowboys 34, Commander 31
Walder’s choice: Cowboys 34, Commanders 20
FPI forecast: DAL, 85.1% (average 13.9 points)
Thanksgiving review: In 1974, backup quarterback Clint Longley filled in for the injured Roger Staubach, and the Cowboys trailed Washington 16-3. Longley led Dallas to victory by completing 11 passes for 203 yards. He capped the comeback with a 50-yard touchdown pass to Drew Pearson with 28 seconds left, and the extra point gave the Cowboys a 24-23 victory. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: The faltering Commanders face their toughest challenge after the Giants’ defeat… After the Panthers’ defeat, the Cowboys’ focus turns to the Commanders
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: SF -7 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: Even at full strength, the Seahawks would have their hands full against a superior 49ers team that defeated them three times last season by a combined score of 89-43. This game became even more difficult when quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker III suffered injuries on Sunday. Pete Carroll is optimistic Smith can overcome his triceps contusion, but Walker’s status is more uncertain after he suffered an oblique strain and did not play through the opening series. Seattle would turn to rookie second-round pick Zach Charbonnet as the RB1 in Walker’s absence (and Drew Lock under center if Smith can’t go). –Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Niners defensive end Nick Bosa will have the third three-sack game of his career. Seattle has been forced to use a rotating cast of offensive linemen due to injuries, and while they are getting healthier, Bosa and San Francisco’s defensive line has found a rhythm since the arrival of Chase Young a few weeks ago. In a short week with some health uncertainties in the Seahawks’ offense, this could be the week that some of Bosa’s many pressures (27 this season) turn into sacks. – Nick Wagoner
Statistics you should know: San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his last two games. The last 49ers player with three or more passing TDs in three consecutive games was Jeff Garcia in 2001. Oh, and Purdy is 5-0 with nine touchdown passes and zero interceptions against division opponents in his career, including playoffs.
Matchup X-Factor: Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner. As a linebacker, he ranks fourth in run-stop win rate (41.5%), and no team has a higher run rate than the 49ers this season. — Walder
Injuries: 49ers | Seahawks
What you should know for fantasy: The 49ers are heavily favored on the road against a Seahawks team that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, giving Christian McCaffrey a great performance. But tight end George Kittle could also put up big numbers. He has racked up 13 receptions, 274 yards and two touchdowns in his last two visits to Seattle. See Week 12 Rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS in division games this season, but are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Read more.
Moody’s selection: 49ers 35, Seahawks 17
Walder’s choice: 49ers 26, Seahawks 23
FPI forecast: SF, 73.2% (average 8.3 points)
Thanksgiving review: The Seahawks and 49ers met on Thanksgiving in 2014, with the Seahawks winning 19-3. Running back Marshawn Lynch caught 20 carries for 104 yards, and cornerback Richard Sherman hauled in two interceptions. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: A three-game stretch could determine the 49ers’ playoff fate… Carroll believes Smith will play Thursday… Hufanga tore his ACL