“In the thirty years I have been working in the cocoa industry, this is the worst time of year.” In the south of Ivory Coast, Siaka Sylla looks disappointedly at the warehouse of his almost empty cooperative: after exceptionally heavy rains, the world’s leading producer’s harvest is looking very bad poor.
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On this hot November morning, rare trucks from the plantations arrive to deliver a few dozen bags of cocoa beans to the Scapen cooperative in Hermankono village, near Divo.
“It rained too much this year! Trucks are usually lining up to unload at this time! We barely have 200 bags there when we can store ten times more,” laments Mr. Sylla, president of the cooperative, which brings together almost 1,500 planters.
AFP
He expects a harvest three to four times smaller than last year.
The observation is confirmed in the cocoa fields. On the side of a road where only motorcycles can pass, Bamoussa Coulibaly harvests a few rare yellow-red pods from the numerous cocoa trees.
This year, the month of July was particularly rainy in the south of Ivory Coast, right at the time of cocoa blossoming and “the flowers were falling,” is how the farm worker explains his meager harvest.
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And of the pods that resisted, some in turn rotted due to excessive humidity.
20 to 40% more precipitation
According to the Ivorian meteorological agency Sodexam, year-to-date rainfall in certain areas has been 20 to 40% higher than the 1991 to 2020 average.
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However, cacao needs a subtle alternation between sunshine and rainfall to fully thrive.
A few kilometers from Hermanokono, in the bush near N’Douci, Monique Koffi Amenan wades through a marshy field, a remnant of the unusual rainfall that caused the neighboring river to overflow its banks for several weeks.
“This year the harvest is not even enough for one bag, but usually for two bags. The rain caused the cocoa to rot,” explains the forty-year-old, who has been cultivating this field with her husband for ten years.
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“We had predicted a 20% decline compared to last year and our forecasts have been confirmed. Due to the heavy rains, many pods have rotted,” confirmed Yves Brahima Koné, chairman of the Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC), the sector regulator in the country, to AFP.
Record prices
As a leading producer, Ivory Coast supplies around 40% of the world’s cocoa. In anticipation of a bad year, the sale of export contracts was suspended from July.
Result: Cocoa prices break records on the financial markets.
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In London, a ton of cocoa peaked at £3,478 on November 10, a record since 1989, while in New York it exceeded $4,000, the highest since the end of 1978, or 45 years.
Following the rains, the situation could remain critical as the resurgence of the El Niño climate phenomenon raises fears of prolonged droughts in West Africa.
“This is proof that climate change is hitting developing countries harder,” claims Ivorian economist Séraphin Prao.
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But as they wait for a possible repeat of the phenomenon next season, producers are worried about their short-term finances.
In Ivory Coast, the purchase price for cocoa from the farm is set by the government. At 1,000 francs per kilo (1.5 euros), it is higher this year than in previous seasons, but the low quantities will lead to a deficit for many families.
According to the World Bank, cocoa provides income for a fifth of the Ivorian population.
“My children go to school, I have one who is in the 6th grade and another who attends BTS. But if the cocoa doesn’t produce any yield, what should we do?” worries Monique Koffi Amenan.
“In a liberalized system, farmers would benefit in the current context, with cocoa reaching record levels. In Cameroon, for example, where the price is not set by the state, a kilo of cocoa costs twice as much,” emphasizes Séraphin Prao.
Back at the Hermankono cooperative, Siaka Sylla still believes that the interim harvest, which takes place in April, will be better. “But that won’t make up the deficit,” he sighs.