Do you know what goes well with turkey? Football! The NFL has a tripleheader planned for Thanksgiving and will also treat us to a Black Friday game for the first time ever. That’s four games over the two-day holiday stretch before we go full throttle on Sunday and Monday. Each of these games is a division rivalry showdown, so competition is expected to be at an all-time high and include a number of Super Bowl contenders.
As we do every week for the entire list, we’ve rounded up the best Thanksgiving and Black Friday tips and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine. We’ve put them all in one place so you can get tips against the spread from our CBS Sports experts, plus additional content for every game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, as well as best bets from our staff , survival tips and more.
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus Odds.
What picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which Super Bowl contender will be eliminated? Visit SportsLine, whose incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has returned well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
Time: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (Fox), streaming on fubo (try for free)
Open: Lions -7, O/U 45.5
Recommended Game | Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
The SportsLine projection model has put together a Thanksgiving game you’ll definitely want to see. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has gained well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks since its launch for $100 players. The model entered Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season with an incredible 174-125 record on top-rated NFL picks from the 2017 season. Now it’s eyeing a bet that would pay around 12/1. We can tell you that one of the stages is Packers +7.5, but to see the rest of the stages you’ll have to go to SportsLine.
“If you didn’t get to see the Lions on Sunday – and I’m guessing you didn’t because I’m pretty sure their game was only shown to about 1.3% of the country – then they’ve done the most unlikely thing. “ Week 11 Comeback. They trailed the Bears by 12 points with three minutes to play and somehow still won.
“Sure, it was against the Bears, but it was still impressive, and that’s why I know the Lions are different this year. The old Lions would have lost this game by 33 points because the Bears somehow scored three touchdowns on the year.” The last three minutes to score the bullseye. But these Lions are so good that they were able to sleepwalk for three and a half quarters and still win.
“Speaking of sleepwalking through three and a half quarters, that’s almost always what I did on Thanksgiving when the Lions played, but now that they’re good, I’ll probably end up watching the whole game.”
“After getting that wake-up call against the Bears on Sunday, I feel like the Lions are going to take off in this game. The biggest advantage for the Lions is that they will be going up against a Packers defense.” They have given up 134.7 rush yards per game this season, which is 28th in the NFL. On the other hand, the Lions have an offense that ranks fifth overall in rush yards per game. I guess what I’m trying to say here is that the Lions might not have to throw a single pass to beat the Packers, which would be appropriate since I’m pretty sure that’s the same game plan they used to beat the Plymouth Pilgrims defeated when they played at the first Thanksgiving in 1621.
“The last time the Lions started 8-2 was 1962, and they improved their record to 9-2 with a Thanksgiving win over the Packers. I see history repeating itself this week. Time really is a flat circle.” – CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech explains why the Lions beat the Packers 30-20 on Thanksgiving. Click here to see all of his picks for Week 12.
“It doesn’t look like the Packers will have Aaron Jones for this game, which is a massive detriment to their overall offense. While Green Bay beat the Chargers at home last week, Jordan Love continues to question his consistency and overall ability to keep up with an offense like Detroit’s, especially without his best weapon in Jones. Jared Goff is coming off a three-interception game in Week 11, but the Lions were still able to pull out a win and I expect the quarterback to have a more solid performance this week. This could also be a strong day for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, as they face a Packers run defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the road (fifth-most in the NFL). .” – CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan explains why he has the Lions beating the Packers and reports on the 7.5-point margin on Thanksgiving. To see the rest of his picks, click here.
Time: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS), streaming on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Cowboys -10.5, O/U 46
Recommended Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
“The reason I think it will be a blast is because the game is in Dallas and the Cowboys have blown everyone out at home. Not only are the Cowboys 4-0 at home this year, they have also won all four of those games by at least 20 points.
“The Cowboys have also won 12 straight home games since last year and Dak Prescott hasn’t lost a single home game in the division since 2017. THAT WAS SIX YEARS AGO. Since then, he has won 14 straight home games in the division, which is the fourth-longest streak in NFL history and if the Cowboys win on Sunday, he will tie Troy Aikman for the third-longest streak of all time (Tom Brady has 20 games are the longest series). Additionally, Prescott has never lost to Washington at home (he is 5-0).
“And let’s not forget the fact that Sam Howell is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this year and he will face a Cowboys defense that is extremely good at sacking the quarterback. This seems like a disaster waiting to happen.” — CBS Sports writer John Breech explains why he thinks Dallas blows out the Commanders (31-17). To see the rest of Breech’s Week 12 picks, click here.
The SportsLine Projection Model has the top-rated NFL picks at 29-18 since Week 7 of last season. It has also ranked in the top 10 for straight NFL picks on NFLPickWatch four times in the last six years and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports’ football pick ’em players four times during that period. With that in mind, you want to see what direction Commanders-Cowboys is headed. We can tell you that the model is above the overall value, but we can also tell you that one side of the range occurs in well over 50% of the simulations. To see which site that is, go to SportsLine.
“The Commanders are coming off a blowout loss to the Giants last week, while Dallas is riding high. The Cowboys are playing as well as any team in the league. Washington’s offensive line is a problem that will cause the Cowboys to have a field day with their defensive front. Dak Prescott is playing well again. Cowboys are rolling.” – CBS Sports Senior NFL Writer Pete Prisco explains why he’s rooting for the Cowboys to beat the Commanders 32-16. To see the rest of Prisco’s Week 12 picks, click here.
Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: 49ers -6, O/U 43.5
Recommended Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
SportsLine’s Josh Nagel is a Reno-based analyst and radio host who has worked in the sports disability industry for more than 20 years. Notably, Nagel has had his finger on the pulse of the Seahawks, posting an impressive 24-10 (+1300) record in his last 34 picks in games with Seattle. Of course, you’ll want to know which direction he goes in this NFC West matchup, especially as Nagel finds the crucial X-factor that has him attacking one side of the spread. We can tell you he goes over the total, but to see his spread pick, you’ll have to go to SportsLine.
“The 49ers are showing us that they are back on the right track after an outstanding win over the Bucs on Sunday. Brock Purdy had a perfect passer rating, they got contributions from all their players with their good skills and the defense is top notch.” Losing safety Talanoa Hufanga is a tough blow, but that won’t stop me from scoring points here, especially since that number is a touchdown. Geno Smith likely won’t be at 100% after suffering a throwing arm injury on Sunday or it will be Drew Lock under center for Seattle. Either way, it will be difficult for Seattle to keep up with San Francisco’s offense, especially when it comes to fighting through a Niners defense. This unit ranks fourth in pressure percentage entering the week, 12, while the Seahawks’ offensive line is allowing the eighth-most pressures in the league. – CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan explains why he thinks the 49ers are covering the 6.5-point spread over Seattle. Click here to see all of his picks for Week 12.
Time: Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Open: Dolphins -7.5, O/U 42
Recommended Game | New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
“This Friday game the day after Thanksgiving is not what was expected as the Jets were an offensive disaster. The Jets defense performed poorly against Buffalo and will be challenged here by the Dolphins. Tim Boyle will be the starting quarterback for the Jets, but will that matter? Still, I think the Jets’ defense is tight.” – CBS Sports senior NFL writer Pete Prisco explains why he’s rooting for the Dolphins to beat the Jets 21-16. To see the rest of his Week 12 picks, click here.
“Miami is now an under team led by its defense. The offense has stalled and a running game that averaged 6.5 yards per carry in the first six weeks has since averaged just 3.9 yards per carry (22nd in the league). De’Von Achane is injured again and in the last two Miami games the 35 points could not be cracked. Miami has scored 20 or fewer in three of its last four games and will face a tougher defense on Friday. The Jets held the Dolphins to 28 points total two games last season.
“The Dolphins defense is getting sharper and recognizing Vic Fangio’s system. The Jets are last in the NFL with nine offensive touchdowns, four fewer than any other team. Will Tim Boyle really score points? Really? I just hope there are.” There aren’t multiple pick sixes, otherwise it could be 20-13. “It’s a short week with limited practice and Miami has to travel and head out in the cold with an offense that isn’t nearly as sharp in games outside of South Florida. The Jets have gone down in 12 of their last 15 games.” – SportLine’s Jason La Canfora has been one of the site’s sharpest bets and has now put together a set of the best bets for Week 12. That includes winning the overall rating under 40.5 at Dolphins-Jets on Black Friday. To see the rest of his picks, including a must-win with the Packers-Lions, check out SportsLine.