This was the biggest victory in the history of controversial anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders’ far-right party.
1. The victory of the PVV party is great and unprecedented
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The scale of Geert Wilders’ PVV party’s victory far exceeded pollsters’ predictions, doubling the number of seats he won in parliament in the last election.
Not only is it the PVV’s best election result ever, but also the first time since the Second World War that the largest party in the Netherlands does not come from Europe’s liberal center-right or center-left party family.
How did Wilders do it? It looks like he mobilized his voters to vote again in 2021, but he also seems to have convinced people who abstained in 2021 and received support from other right-wing parties.
2. Geert Wilders has yet to form a coalition
Far-right anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders may have doubled his party’s seats in the Dutch parliament in Wednesday’s election, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will become prime minister.
Wilders will have to form a coalition with other parties to achieve a majority in parliament (or try to govern with a minority), and in politics that always involves compromises to work together.
The leader of the New Social Contract party, which was founded just three months ago, said he was open to talks with Wilders. The party won an estimated 20 seats in the election.
The center-left coalition of Labor and the Green Party is expected to win 26 seats, but party leader Frans Timmermans has already ruled out working with Wilders.
“We will never form a coalition with parties that act as if asylum seekers are the source of all misery,” said Timmermans.
3. Informants and designers – Dutch politics is complicated!
The process of forming a new government begins when all parties hold preliminary talks to determine what combination of parties could work together to reach the magic majority threshold of 76 seats in a 150-seat parliament.
The House of Commons then appoints an “informant” to determine the possible contours of a coalition agreement. Until 2012, this person was appointed by the king.
When it becomes apparent that a group of parties can work together, a “shaper” is appointed – almost always the person who won the election and who begins the delicate work of assembling a potential Cabinet.
The parties then sign a coalition agreement and the new government presents its plans to the lower house, which then has to vote on them in a vote of confidence.
4. Forming a new government will likely take a long time
The process sounds unique, the coalition negotiations will be difficult, how long can it all take?
The answer: a long time.
Dutch parties usually fight for months to include as many points from their programs as possible in the coalition agreement, even before the race for office begins.
After the 2021 elections, the coalition that would be outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s last took a record 271 days to form.
This time it could take even longer, as most analysts do not expect a government to be formed before summer 2024.
In the meantime, Mark Rutte and his government remain in charge.
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5. Nexit: Geert Wilders wants a referendum on leaving the EU
Although forging alliances and working together in a coalition government requires compromises, Geert Wilders has some political plans that will shock Europe and Brussels in particular.
Although there is no particular desire in the Netherlands (so far) to leave the EU, Wilders says he wants to hold a “Nexit” referendum.
Among other controversial measures, he also wants an “asylum stop” and “no Islamic schools, Korans and mosques,” although he promised on Wednesday evening not to violate Dutch laws or the country’s constitution, which enshrines freedom of religion and expression.
Geert Wilders is also a strong supporter of Israel and supports moving the Dutch embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch diplomatic post in Ramallah, home of the Palestinian Authority.