Even though the Legault government still has a good three years in power, concerns lurk behind the scenes. Pessimists fear his decline in the polls will only get worse. Optimists pray for an eventual recovery.
Only time will tell what will happen. The only certainty is this. Since the loss of trust caused by the government’s broken third link promise and erratic management of multiple files, we have observed two trends.
1) The CAQ is continually losing support. 2) What it loses is transferred directly to the Parti Québécois.
In short, we are witnessing the reversal of the movement that contributed to the CAQ’s two election victories in 2018 and 2022.
As the popularity of the CAQ and its leader declines, that of the PQ and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon grows stronger. And vice versa. For the first time since 2018, the CAQ faces a single opponent.
For what? By combining a certain disillusionment with a government incapable of improving public services and the discovery of a PSPP and a PQ that are again refreshing and connected to their raison d’être.
Result: After more than 20 years of vampirizing a large section of the sovereign electorate disillusioned with a PQ in existential wanderings, the CAQ is in turn bleeding on its nationalist flank in favor of the same PQ that has now risen from its ashes.
Politics is made of ironies, but this one is particularly violent. At least for now. Because no one knows whether this trend will continue until the 2026 elections or not.
In the CAQ’s blind spot
However, hidden in the CAQ’s blind spot is another, more discrete concern, namely the high proportion of Francophone Federalists within its electorate.
According to the latest Léger poll, 54% of CAQ voters would vote no if a sovereignty referendum were held. For the CAQ, this is a large part of its voter base.
We forget that the CAQ has also gained new strength among federalist French-speaking voters thanks to its rejection of the sovereigntist option and the staggering decline of the Quebec Liberal Party since its bitter defeat in 2018.
So much so that only 5 to 6% are left in the PLQ. Hence another potential threat to the CAQ.
In 2025, the PLQ will elect a new leader. Since the Liberals are in 36th place, almost no one wants them anymore.
Bleeding on both sides
But if the CAQ does not regain its previous support and the PQ continues to establish itself as an alternative, who knows, the leadership of the PLQ could become more attractive to the Federalists.
If the Liberals had to find a leader who would be even remotely presentable – or, better yet for them, get popular MP Marwah Rizqy to change her mind and take the plunge – the CAQ would also risk one Losing part of their votes valuable French-speaking federalist base.
If the two French-speaking electorates that were won over by the CAQ due to its coalition nature returned to the party in 2026 – one to the PQ and the other to the PLQ – François Legault’s formation would be at a great disadvantage.
For this reason, failure is not an option for the CAQ. If the government fails to restore public services by 2026 – and the PLQ also finds a decent leader – it risks being gobbled up by both electoral parties at the same time.
It’s political fiction. Naturally. In three years, the political dynamic still has time for setbacks.
However, if the trend in the surveys of the last few months continues, such a scenario would not be unreasonable. The real challenge for François Legault is to avoid this.
In 2018 and 2022, his party fed on the ashes of the PQ and the PLQ. However, the PQ’s astonishing resurgence, while still fragile, is already underway. If the Liberals had to show signs of life by 2026…
