In the freezing Arctic winter, a growing number of asylum seekers from Russia have recently reported to the Finnish border, a hybrid attack orchestrated by Moscow, according to Finland.
• Also read: According to Moscow, around 300 migrants are waiting in the Russian Arctic for passage to Finland
• Also read: Finland plans to close its border with Russia
Many arrive on bicycles in winter coats, trying to get around a ban on crossing the border on foot, even though Finland banned entry by bicycle last week.
AFP
Finnish border guards sounded the alarm in early October, warning that Russia would allow more and more migrants to cross the border without papers.
These migrants mainly come from the Middle East and Africa.
AFP
For Helsinki, this is an attempt to destabilize Russia.
“This is a systematic and organized action by the Russian authorities,” Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Monday.
According to Finnish authorities, around 700 visa-free asylum seekers have entered Finland across the more than 1,300 kilometer long border since August.
Helsinki responded by closing all eastern border crossing points, leaving open only the northernmost one, which borders Russia’s Murmansk region.
AFP
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova denied any deliberate actions by Russia on Wednesday. “The Finnish authorities are starting to make up clumsy excuses, thereby reactivating Russophobic feelings,” she said.
The European border protection agency Frontex announced this Thursday the upcoming deployment of 50 officers to the Finnish border.
Belarusian precedent
Finland’s traditionally friendly relations with its larger neighbor deteriorated with the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
After Helsinki decided to abandon decades of military neutrality and join NATO in April, Moscow warned of “countermeasures.”
“Russia and the West, including Finland, are in a very deep conflict,” notes Arkady Moshes, director of the Russia program at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). “Weaponizing migration is one of the tools” available to Moscow.
He drew the parallel to the border crisis between Belarus and the European Union in 2021.
The EU said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko urged tens of thousands of migrants to cross the border into Poland in retaliation for the sanctions.
“The Finnish government’s actions show that Poland’s experience has been taken into account,” said Mr Moshes.
Poland solved the crisis by making its border “impenetrable,” something the Finnish authorities have difficulty doing.
Anticipating that Moscow would resort to migratory pressure, Finland began building a huge 200 km fence, but only three kilometers were completed.
Russia “double winner”
Pushing people to the Finnish border is “a win-win situation for Russia,” says the researcher.
Helsinki has only two bad options: keep the border open and accept migrants or close it entirely.
“If Finland does not close its border (…), it will show that the West is weak,” he said in the eyes of Russia.
And if it closes its border, Russia can play the victim and denounce a “Russophobic action.”
However, the maneuver carries risks for Moscow.
It could bring Russia criticism from its allies in the Middle East and the Muslim world.
And on Russian territory, Russia is responsible for providing migrants with essentials.
“Even Lukashenko ended up having to build shelters for these people,” notes Mr. Moshes.
Humanitarian crisis
Finland is now seeking a balance between its security concerns and its human rights obligations.
“That is certainly one of the goals of hybrid warfare: to try to undermine the basic institutions of the state,” said Eeva Nykanen, a law professor at the University of Eastern Finland.
Helsinki considered closing its entire border, but faced resistance due to its international obligations.
Finland is obliged to ensure the accessibility of certain border crossing points, explains Ms. Nykanen.
Even if entry is illegal, for example in the event of a complete border closure, a migrant has the right to apply for asylum.
In freezing temperatures, Finland could face migrants freezing behind barbed wire and having to solve “a humanitarian crisis,” the professor said.