Wake up to VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a short 15-minute podcast released at 7 a.m. ET that highlights the day’s top plays and biggest line moves. I’ll also be breaking down the games on The Sweat this morning from 8-10 a.m. ET, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
With our VSiN betting splits you can always track the latest odds and betting percentages.
In the meantime, let’s examine where the smart money is leaning for today’s College Football Week 13.
12 p.m. ET: Ohio State at Michigan (-3.5, 46.5)
Ohio State (11-0, No. 2) earned a resounding 37-3 win over Minnesota and is the home favorite by 27.5 points. On the other hand, Michigan (11:0, 3rd place) narrowly beat Maryland 31:24, but could not cover itself as the away favorite with 18 points. This line started with Michigan listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and they rush out the window to take the points with Ohio State. Currently, 63% of the bets and 73% of the money go to the street dog Buckeyes. This one-sided support has caused Michigan’s -6 line to fall to -3.5. At this point, Ohio State has become a trend dog (that pros usually like to fade), while Michigan offers a unique low buy price with a deflated line. The Wolverines are among the contrarian players of the day with just 37% of bets. Michigan also has buy-low value as a team that didn’t cover the previous week against a sell-high team that did cover. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 21-3 (88%) this season and 152-34 (82%) since 2016. Michigan is -170 on the money line. Both teams allow around 9 points per game defensively. Michigan has the edge offensively, averaging 38 PPG compared to 34 PPG for Ohio State. Michigan is +280 to win the CFP while Ohio State is +550. The overall value is relatively frozen at 46.5. The subordinate receives 40% of the bets but 50% of the money. Michigan defeated Ohio State 43-22 in their only matchup last season.
4:00 p.m. ET: Jacksonville State (-3, 49) at New Mexico State
Jacksonville State (8-3) just defeated Louisiana Tech 56-17 and is easily the 10-point home favorite. Meanwhile, New Mexico State (9-3) just shocked Auburn 31-10, winning as a road dog by 25.5 points. This line started with New Mexico State listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Smart money hit Jacksonville State, turning the road team from a two-point dog to a three-point favorite. In other words, Jacksonville State gets the classic “from dogs to favorites” line move. Jacksonville State receives 58% of the bets but a whopping 87% of the money, indicating low public support but also strong, harsh action from reputable bettors. New Mexico State is also a hot seller after a big upset win. Those who want to follow the sharp trend but are wary of using the key number -3 could instead target Jacksonville State on the -145 money line. The pros have also bent down, dropping the total from 50 to 49. Currently, 49% of the bets but 96% of the money are taken under, a massive “low stakes, higher dollars” discrepancy in under bets. The forecast is for low 60s with winds of 18 to 20 mph, making this a “Windy Under” system. When winds blow 10 miles per hour or more, the decline is about 55% over the last decade.
7 p.m. ET: Florida State (-6.5, 49) at Florida
Florida State (11-0, No. 5) just beat North Alabama 58-13 but couldn’t hold on as a 47.5-point home favorite. On the other hand, Florida (5-6) has played the last four games in a row and just fell to Missouri 33-31, but is covered by 12.5 points as a road dog. This line opened with Florida State ranked as the road favorite by 10.5 points. The public sees an easy win for Florida State and currently 73% of bets are on the points with the Seminoles. However, despite these lopsided bets, we saw Florida State fall from -10.5 to -6.5. A big reason for this adjustment is the fact that FSU star QB Jordan Travis was injured in the last game and will now miss the rest of the season. Florida is receiving just 27% of the bets, making the Gators a top contrarian in the highest-betting primetime game tonight. The Gators also have value as an unrated, low-purchase dog against a high-sell favorite. Those looking to support the Gators should look for the key number +7. The Sharps are also leaning downward, dropping the total from 52.5 to 49. Currently, 33% of the bets but 50% of the money are down, representing a remarkably strong contrarian betting discrepancy.