Netherlands
In a pretty waterfront town, residents are applauding the veteran right-winger’s stance on immigration, calling his success a “vote against the established order.”
Sat Nov 25, 2023 3:12 p.m. GMT
At a shopping center in Volendam, a fishing port north of Amsterdam, there was satisfaction on Friday that far-right politician Geert Wilders had dominated last Wednesday’s Dutch election. “This is a really good thing,” said Pieter, who did not want to give his last name. “There is a shortage of houses, people are still coming. The borders must be closed.”
In pretty Volendam, long a Wilders stronghold, the Party for Freedom (PVV) won 18.6% of the vote. Politicians, political scientists and Wilders himself jaws dropped when early forecasts suggested a gain of 37 seats – about a quarter of the parliamentary seats and his largest share ever.
This blonde politician, sometimes referred to as “the Dutch Trump” and known for his inflammatory comments on Islam, his criminal record for insulting Dutch Moroccans and refusing entry to Britain, has shocked the nation. According to preliminary findings, the veteran lawmaker, who lives with 24-hour security after receiving death threats, is riding a wave of concerns about immigration, housing, the cost of living and distrust of governments after a series of scandals.
At a nearby cafe, 57-year-old Arjen said: “It is a vote against the existing order. They made a mess.”
At the next table, 55-year-old B&B owner Vincent Veerman said he had previously voted for conventional right-wing parties, but wanted a government that would take action against the immigration of “chancers”: He agreed with the PVV’s “asylum stop” and cited concerns in terms of crime since 160 asylum seekers were housed in the city’s Van der Valk Hotel. “The reason I voted for PVV,” he said, is just because the government doesn’t go along [Frans] Timmermans.” (Timmermans leads the country’s second largest party, the combined Green Left/Labour Party.)
The PVV electorate generally has a hard life. That’s probably why they vote for a party that promises radical change
The Netherlands is known for low corruption, press freedom and moderation, but for two decades there has been another current: support for far-right parties. Islamophobe Pim Fortuyn, who was assassinated just before the 2002 election, founded a party of the same name that won 26 seats and took part in government before it collapsed. The far-right Forum for Democracy performed well in provincial elections and became the largest party in the Senate in 2019 before suffering a similar fate. According to Prof. Tom Louwerse from the Institute of Political Science at Leiden University, the far right in the Netherlands has reached an average of 15 to 20% of respondents over the past decade.
There is a feeling that not everyone in the Netherlands has the same opportunities, especially those who were less successful in the highly selective secondary school system. Journalist Joris Luyendijk recently identified “seven factors” – including better education, whiteness and having a Dutch parent – that accelerate a person’s progress in a supposedly non-hierarchical society. Prof. Marcel Lubbers, social scientist at Utrecht University, agrees: “Among voters with a migrant background, a large majority feel that their interests are not well represented in politics, but we also see this among a very large group without a migrant background , who vote. “Anti-immigration parties.”
Prof. Matthijs Rooduijn of the University of Amsterdam says he sees the election as a “breeding ground for right-wing populism.” Many parties campaigned on immigration, playing into the hands of Wilders, who associates migrants with crime and housing problems. Rooduijn’s research suggests that 15% of the PVV vote came from people defecting from Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).
At the start of the campaign, new VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius opened the door for Wilders by saying she would not exclude him from a coalition, as most mainstream parties had done, put off by his extremism.
Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius, pictured with Wilders, said at the start of the campaign that she would not exclude him from a coalition. Photo: Robin Utrecht/Shutterstock
Wilders apparently responded with a milder tone. In the current television program Nieuwsuur he said he could put his manifesto policy of banning mosques, Islamic schools and the Koran on hold. “The priority is on other things when it comes to the coming term of government,” he said quietly.
This clearly resonated. At his campaign launch in the southern city of Venlo, voters said they liked his nativist message but sometimes felt he went a little too far. Five weeks later, Veerman said here in Volendam that Wilders took a more moderate tone on climate than “left-wing extremists.” “I don’t care what you believe — Catholic, Protestant, Islamic — as long as you respect everyone else,” he said. “We have a multicultural society.”
Although Wilders is far-right on immigration, he pursues populist policies on health care, pensions, the minimum wage and social housing. “The PVV electorate generally consists of people who have greater difficulties,” said Rooduijn. “They feel like they are being neglected. They have a hard life, economically but also culturally. And that is one of the reasons why they vote for a party that promises radical change.”
But will this radical change happen? Wilders won the most seats and was invited to form a coalition. But in the Netherlands’ representative democracy, the result of horse-trading is anything but obvious. He may not become prime minister, and if he fails to form a coalition, another party could try. It could take months.
The most obvious option would be a right-wing coalition made up of the PVV, VVD, Pieter Omtzigt’s New Social Contract and the right-wing Farmer Citizen Movement (BBB). But Yeşilgöz-Zegerius has said she will not be part of a Wilders government, although she might support some policies. The center-right Omtzigt party has previously ruled out working with “anti-constitutional” positions, but now speaks vaguely about “taking responsibility.”
Raoul du Pré of the daily Volkskrant says Wilders – a quick and snappy debater – benefited from the absence of Rutte, who announced his resignation as leader in the summer, to win debates, but also used the media to attract a softer one to display page.
But Wilders’ manifesto, which is half the length of the VVD, NSC and GreenLeft/Labour manifestos, had no official price tag and contains a deep irony. ING economists Marcel Klok and Marieke Blom analyzed a potential Wilders-NSC-BBB coalition supported by Yeşilgöz-Zegerius. They noted that the impact on the economy would be stimulating: “Given the current tensions in the labor market, we expect this will lead to higher demand for foreign workers.”
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