By Orlando Oramas Leon
Chief correspondent in Uruguay
It would be the long-awaited return to government, which the FA held between 2005 and 2020. First with the presidency of Tabaré Vázquez (2005-2010 and 2015-2020) and then José Mujica (2010-2015).
According to the latest Citizen Perception Unit (UPC) report from the first days of November, 45 percent of the population would vote for the FA.
On the side of the governing coalition, the sum of its factors would reach 35 percent, with the National Party contributing 27 percent, the Colorado Party five percent and the Cabildo Abierto three percent.
The UPC sample shows that at this point eight percent would have had their vote blank or canceled and seven percent of undecided voters would remain.
By age group, the FA has the highest support (55 percent) among 45 to 59 year olds and the lowest (42 percent) among 18 to 29 year olds, while the National Party (PN) rises to 32 percent among voters from 60 years of age and drops to 20 percent for 18 to 29 year olds.
In terms of socioeconomic level, FA is stronger in the lower classes (49 percent) and weaker in the upper classes (43 percent). In the National Party the opposite is the case: 18 percent in the lower classes and 34 percent in the wealthier classes.
Within the multicolor coalition, the PN or white party of President Luis Lacalle Pou continues to govern; The survey also contains further information: eight percent of those who voted for the current government in 2019 would now vote for the Frente Amplio.
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
When asked: “No matter what you vote for, which party do you think will win the elections in 2024?” 61 percent of respondents named the FA, 24 the PN, two percent the Colorado Party (PC) and an open town hall (CA). There were 11 percent who did not respond.
UPC’s is not the only example. A few days later, the Montevideo portal published its own poll that confirmed the Frente Amplio as the favorite and showed a declining panorama of the National Party.
The white political force received 21.76 percent of the vote for the question: “If the national elections were held today, which party would you vote for?”, which was asked to 25,372 internet users between November 14th and 21st. Just over a month ago, the PN received 26.47 percent of the vote.
According to this other study, the front would prevail in the October 2024 presidential elections with 48.29 percent, much higher than the 39.01 achieved in the 2019 national elections.
The fall of Lacalle Pou’s party can be attributed to scandals that have rocked the government in recent weeks, such as the audio recordings linked to the handing over of a passport to Uruguayan drug trafficker Sebastián Marset. This case led to the resignation of two ministers, two deputy ministers and a presidential adviser.
The PN was also affected by the scandal surrounding former senator Gustavo Penadés, who is now in custody on 22 charges of crimes, mostly of a sexual nature, committed against minors.
The nationalists’ lull appears to be being exploited by the Colorado Party within the governing coalition. Coloradans received 11.15 percent of the vote in the Montevideo Portal report, nearly doubling the previous poll’s result (5.59 percent).
THE CANDIDATES
But such numbers could be temporary, as there are almost 11 months left before the elections. The election campaign will be long, as will the list of pre-candidates from different ideological directions and different political groups, both the government and the FA.
It is enough to take a closer look at what is happening in the Colorados, whose ranks have so far included seven candidates for the presidency of the Republic, a party that appears worse in the polls. Equipo Consultores, another polling institute, gives him third place in citizen preference with just four percent.
Prominent among the PC candidates is former National Public Education Administration Board President Robert Silva, who is credited with driving the education reform currently facing the teaching sector.
There are also the former president of the National Telecommunications Administration (Antel), the Minister of Tourism Tabaré Viera, the deputy Gustavo Zubía and the lawyer Andrés Ojeda, the youngest of those who want to become the next Uruguayan president.
Due to the fragmentation of names in the competition, the PC has the highest proportion of undecided voters (59 percent) among its voters. None of the pollsters give the current PC candidates a chance of occupying the presidential seat from 2025.
The Citizen Perception Center reported that 43 of those surveyed believe that Yamandú Orsi, mayor of Canelones, is today the one who collects the most ballots for the presidency among the almost twenty preliminary candidates.
Orsi is a presidential ticket from the Frente Amplio, as are Carolina Cosse and Andrés Lima (mayors of Montevideo and Salto, respectively) and Senator Mario Bergara. They will be approved by the Front Congress agreed to take place in December.
The left-wing coalition will decide on one of them in the primaries in June 2024, the same day that other parties will hold internal elections to determine their presidential candidates.
For now, the UPC gives 18 percent to the current presidential secretary Álvaro Delgado, which is also the best ticket in the PN, where Senator Jorge Gandini and the economist Laura Raffo are also aiming.
Delgado and Carolina Cosse (backed by the Communist Party, the Socialist Party and other Broad Front forces) are tied for second place in the presidential nomination, according to several polls. General (r.) and Senator Guido Manini does not seem to have a serious opponent within the Cabildo Abierto, but seems to be relegated to fourth place with just under two percent preference.
These are dates and positions that will fluctuate until October 24, 2024, when the first round of national elections will take place. The last time, in 2019, the Frente Amplio won the first competition, but the right-wing group led by Lacalle Pou triumphed in the runoff.
Times are different, but it was an experience that the front is working to avoid repeating.
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