Ramón Cavieres is director of Activa, one of the leading consultancies that measures the pulse of citizens. Today he focuses on the final stage before the December 17 referendum for a new constitution that will govern Chile’s second attempt in three years to replace the 1980 Magna Carta, created during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990), and some to reform 60 times since 1989. After the rejection of the proposal dominated by the left in September 2022, another process began, ending with the referendum in which Chileans must vote for or against the text drawn up by the Constitutional Council, this time favoring the right guided.
Cavieres, who lives in England, is currently traveling through Chile because of the political context. He describes the election campaign in the constituency as “confusing” and points out that in a climate of constitutional fatigue and exhaustion, the referendum options have become the citizens’ options vis-à-vis the political elites.
Questions. What situation are Chileans in less than three weeks before the referendum?
Answer. It is always good to point out that this is a process with low interest and low levels of trust, in a context where citizens have become tired of the constitutional process. People have other emergencies, such as economic problems and crime. However, based on the latest measurement we provided, I would say that people have already started to make their decision. Two weeks ago we had 30% indecision and today we are at 20%. The against option is 47% and the for option is 22%. According to our current forecast, we have an against rate of 66% and an against rate of 34%. It’s an important difference. Unless something very strange happens, a radical change, the probability of the opposing party winning is high.
Q. Where do the undecided go?
A. We researched that 22% of people are undecided and when you try to get them to choose an option, 60% still remain undecided. And of the remaining 40%, a very similar percentage is for and against. Therefore, there is no clear trend that suggests they are more likely to choose one option or the other. Therefore, we believe that the undecided, when they make their decision, will not change the distribution that exists today, they will not change the equilibrium.
Ramón Cavieres, Managing Director of the consulting firm Activa FERNANDA REQUENA (EL PAÍS)
Q. How would you rate the election campaign in the constituency?
A. Confusing. It no longer has anything to do with the constitutional process but has become a political story. And almost an in-person election, almost partisan, unconstitutional. They mix topics related to the government, criticism of the government, some elements of aggressiveness… All this confuses citizens. Studies I’ve seen suggest that there are people who think voting down is tantamount to voting against the government.
Q. At one point it was analyzed that the right assumed that the vote was a referendum for the Boric government, but citizens apparently do not see it that way
A. No, according to the preference indicators. People are not only against the text, but against all politicians. Don’t think that Boric’s low rating, 30%, means that there are political sectors that have high approval. No. People are very critical of political parties and the entire political elite. This plebiscite was somehow turned into anti-elite citizenship. Ultimately, this is the scenario we find ourselves in. If you want to do a reading, we would speak of “For a political elite that designed this process” and “Against” we would represent the citizens who have become bored with the process and criticism of the elite.
Q. At the beginning of October, Republican leader José Antonio Kast said that they could positively influence the result of the popular vote. What would have to happen for that to happen?
R. In a way, the strategy was that the right-wing leaders didn’t show up as often [campaña electoral] because they know that citizens are critical of politics. If at some point the center-right personalities had more weight in the election campaign [podría favorecer al apruebo], although it’s clear they’re not convinced and that’s being passed on. Evelyn Matthei, one of the leaders, was initially against it. Obviously it had to be aligned later. And Kast also tried not to put too much emphasis on it. What would have to happen? We would almost have to delve into science fiction, something very strange… that the political or security crisis would eventually become very complex, which could be a trigger for people to change their position a little, like one of the stories of The Supporters Of The The proponent is that the proposal can better address the issue of security.
Ramón Cavieres in an interview with EL PAÍS.FERNANDA REQUENA
Q. If the Contra Party wins, would the blow to the Republicans be comparable to that suffered by the Boric government in the first constitutional attempt?
A. In a way, yes. These are the setbacks that the political sectors are suffering. An ideological text from the extreme right and the extreme left would be rejected. And it is a message that is becoming increasingly clear. Now I’m not entirely sure whether consensus would have been reached if the texts had been less extreme and a little more transversal. Because? Because citizens are very critical of the political spectrum as such.
Q. How do you assess the Boric government’s strategy in this second process?
A. The government was seriously damaged in the first referendum. It was a heavy defeat. There is no way the government will win anything here. In the best case scenario, you don’t fall for a constitution that you think is more right-wing. But he learned that it’s better to stay ahead and I think that was a good strategy. But this position, while the most reasonable, is also complex. Taking the side of the opponents – obviously the opposition has tried to combine this – means defending the constitution of the dictator Pinochet.
Q. How much does the intersection on the left affect you?
A. The left is obviously in a very uncomfortable position. In theory, he has to choose between a constitution by Kast and one by Guzmán or Pinochet. It is a very unpleasant decision for them, but they take the position that does the least harm, namely rejecting this text. And somehow he backs off and suggests there won’t be a third trial. That we have to wait a while, about ten years, until this space opens up in the political context and allows for a new process or profound important reforms of the current constitution. On the other hand, if A Favor wins, the issue is closed for at least 20 or 30 years.
Q. If Contra wins, where will Chile be on December 18, the day after the referendum?
A. That’s a good question. I think it will be quieter no matter what happens. That the people will get rid of the tensions of this constitutive process and that the government will concentrate more on pushing forward the reforms or negotiating what it can, despite all the difficulties that there will be due to the lack of a majority in Congress. I think the atmosphere will relax, but let’s see… everything will depend on the leadership that both the government and the opposition take.